There Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcomb's_paradox Thoughts? Which would you choose? I would choose the box with $1,000,000 in it. Assuming that "the predictor" is always/almost always accurate, I don't see why choosing both is a better decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Always box B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 15, 2014 Author Share Posted April 15, 2014 Always box B. Box B is both? Or the one with $1,000,000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Box B is both? Or the one with $1,000,000? Box B is box B--i.e. one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scout608 Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 i don't see a reason not to take both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 i don't see a reason not to take both Take both and you get $1000. Take just B and you get $1,000,000. The latter is the better choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 15, 2014 Author Share Posted April 15, 2014 Take both and you get $1000. Take just B and you get $1,000,000. The latter is the better choice. This is exactly where I fail to see the logic in taking both. If it was entirely random, with 50/50 for box B, then I would of course take both. But we're talking about a being that can predict with 100% accuracy. If you pick both, you will get $1000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminal Inhalation Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 I'm so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 This is exactly where I fail to see the logic in taking both. If it was entirely random, with 50/50 for box B, then I would of course take both. But we're talking about a being that can predict with 100% accuracy. If you pick both, you will get $1000. The being is not 100% accurate. It is known to be highly accurate only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Edit: it double posted instead of edited for me early last morning/night. Whoopsies folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 Take both and you get $1000. Take just B and you get $1,000,000. The latter is the better choice. Wrong. There are 4 "paths": 1. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You take both boxes. You get $1000 2. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You only take Box B. You get $0 3. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You take both boxes. You get $1,001,000 4. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You only take Box B. You get $1,000,000 In addition, it stipulates that if the person chooses in a random way, Box B will contain nothing. Picking both boxes is the better choice, since you guarantee a better spread of money. Picking only B can leave you with exactly nothing, and even if you beat the Deity's guess, you'd get less than if you beat it by picking both Boxes. However, what choice is best can vary depending on how accurate the deity/guesser is, and possibly when or how they obtain the prediction (Assuming it has even a tiny chance to be falliable, you'd probably assume that it doesn't constantly monitor your thoughts or dynamically change its prediction to match you) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 15, 2014 Author Share Posted April 15, 2014 Picking both boxes is the better choice, since you guarantee a better spread of money. Picking only B can leave you with exactly nothing, and even if you beat the Deity's guess, you'd get less than if you beat it by picking both Boxes. However, what choice is best can vary depending on how accurate the deity/guesser is, and possibly when or how they obtain the prediction (Assuming it has even a tiny chance to be falliable, you'd probably assume that it doesn't constantly monitor your thoughts or dynamically change its prediction to match you) Nearly all versions of the story say that the deity/alien/whatever is almost always, if not always accurate. I would rather have a very high chance of getting $1,000,000 than a guaranteed $1,000 + a very slight chance of getting $1,000,000. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted April 15, 2014 Share Posted April 15, 2014 It's usually assumed that there's some chance of the guess being incorrect, otherwise there's not really a paradox since everything would be guaranteed payouts and picking B would 100% be the Million. If you assume that the predictor is totally infallible, and that "random" guesses are punished or not counted, then it's no contest and not really a paradox at that point anymore. Kind of not fun to look at it that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 It's usually assumed that there's some chance of the guess being incorrect, otherwise there's not really a paradox since everything would be guaranteed payouts and picking B would 100% be the Million. If you assume that the predictor is totally infallible, and that "random" guesses are punished or not counted, then it's no contest and not really a paradox at that point anymore. Kind of not fun to look at it that way Someone here is free to check my math on this... If he is 50.05% accurate, both choices will (in total) pay the same. Anything more than 50.05% and opening box B is the better choice. Anything less than 50.05% and opening both is a better choice. When they say that he is "almost always" accurate, I can assume that they mean his level of accuracy is over 50%, and I would assume it's over 90%, or even 95%. This makes opening box B a far better choice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Take both. You either end up with $1000 or $100,000. 1. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You take both boxes. You get $1000 - He guessed right and I get $1000 2. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You only take Box B. You get $0 - Does Not Apply 3. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You take both boxes. You get $1,001,000 - He guessed wrong and I get $1,001,000 4. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You only take Box B. You get $1,000,000 - Does Not Apply Why take just Box B? Both options in which you select Box B are direct downgrades to their "Choosing Both" alternatives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Space Jesus Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Taking Box B is the better choice if the guesser is infallible, but it's usually not phrased to be 100% accurate since being that accurate effectively rules out half of the options (and tends to rule out random chaos "beats" as well). The methodology and timing that the prediction is formed can also affect stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 Take both. You either end up with $1000 or $100,000. 1. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You take both boxes. You get $1000 - He guessed right and I get $1000 2. Deity predicts you will take both boxes. You only take Box B. You get $0 - Does Not Apply 3. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You take both boxes. You get $1,001,000 - He guessed wrong and I get $1,001,000 4. Deity predicts you will take only Box B. You only take Box B. You get $1,000,000 - Does Not Apply Why take just Box B? Both options in which you select Box B are direct downgrades to their "Choosing Both" alternatives. Because you will almost always end up with options 4 or 1. As I said, if they guesser is correct more than 50.05% of the time, why is just picking box B not a better option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 Because you will almost always end up with options 4 or 1. As I said, if they guesser is correct more than 50.05% of the time, why is just picking box B not a better option? Because choosing both is the safer option. You are assuming he is almost always accurate, meaning there is still a chance of error. Choosing both ensures you leave with money. I'm not much of a gambler, so I chose the safe route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 17, 2014 Author Share Posted April 17, 2014 Because choosing both is the safer option. You are assuming he is almost always accurate, meaning there is still a chance of error. Choosing both ensures you leave with money. I'm not much of a gambler, so I chose the safe route. If he was 99.9% accurate... would you take a guaranteed $1000 + a very slight chance to get $1000000 over a 99.9% chance to get $1000000... seriously? That's not gambling, that's common sense... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted April 17, 2014 Share Posted April 17, 2014 If he was 99.9% accurate... would you take a guaranteed $1000 + a very slight chance to get $1000000 over a 99.9% chance to get $1000000... seriously? That's not gambling, that's common sense... It is gambling since there is still a chance of him being wrong. And what if he predicts that you will choose just Box B and alters his prediction off of this premise? It does not state that he intentionally picks the prediction he believes to be true. Say he originally predicts that you will choose just Box B, but he doesn't tell anyone. Knowing that his predictions are almost certain, he says his prediction is that you will choose both boxes and you leave with nothing. The nature of the Predictor must be taken into account, and guessing that he, like many before him, enjoy the misfortune of others, he would alter his prediction to enjoy you confidently pick only Box B only to receive nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 18, 2014 Author Share Posted April 18, 2014 It is gambling since there is still a chance of him being wrong. And what if he predicts that you will choose just Box B and alters his prediction off of this premise? It does not state that he intentionally picks the prediction he believes to be true. Say he originally predicts that you will choose just Box B, but he doesn't tell anyone. Knowing that his predictions are almost certain, he says his prediction is that you will choose both boxes and you leave with nothing. The nature of the Predictor must be taken into account, and guessing that he, like many before him, enjoy the misfortune of others, he would alter his prediction to enjoy you confidently pick only Box B only to receive nothing. "If the Predictor predicts that only box B will be taken, then box B will contain $1,000,000." You can't just change the original question to prove a point lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 "If the Predictor predicts that only box B will be taken, then box B will contain $1,000,000." You can't just change the original question to prove a point lol It isn't changing the question. The original question never states that the predictor's prediction is the one he originally predicted (that is a mouthful). Put Simpler: It never says the predictor can't change his prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 18, 2014 Author Share Posted April 18, 2014 It isn't changing the question. The original question never states that the predictor's prediction is the one he originally predicted (that is a mouthful). Put Simpler: It never says the predictor can't change his prediction. oh lord Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted April 18, 2014 Share Posted April 18, 2014 oh lord Feel free to explain it to me if you think I am wrong. From my point of view you are assuming that either the predictor has pride or is a completely honest being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
There Posted April 19, 2014 Author Share Posted April 19, 2014 Feel free to explain it to me if you think I am wrong. From my point of view you are assuming that either the predictor has pride or is a completely honest being. What if there is Monopoly money in the box, rather than real money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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