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Why do buy orders on Unusuals fluctuate so much?


Foxyfluff

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(And I don't mean minor changes.)

 

I regularly check the classifieds of my own Unusuals out of morbid curiousity.

 

On the more affordable Unusuals, I've often seen a bunch of buy orders which exceed even the high end of the suggested value of the hat.

 

But then when I'd check some time later, either most of the buy orders would be gone or they would all suddenly be like 50-60% of the low end of the suggested price range.

 

Then I'd check back in a few weeks later and there would be high buy orders again.

 

Are these market trends or just automatic buy orders changing for some reason? Are the quickbuyers competing with eachother raising the buy orders only to then concurrently remove their orders?

 

I'm curious.

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Overcut bots go brr 🕺

Buy orders go 📈 

People get fucked by buying for too high or don't have enough pure because they bought something else that got overcut to oblivion 😱

Buy orders gone 📉

Wait a few weeks ⏲️

Repeat 🔂

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4 hours ago, Foxyfluff said:

(And I don't mean minor changes.)

 

I regularly check the classifieds of my own Unusuals out of morbid curiousity.

 

On the more affordable Unusuals, I've often seen a bunch of buy orders which exceed even the high end of the suggested value of the hat.

 

But then when I'd check some time later, either most of the buy orders would be gone or they would all suddenly be like 50-60% of the low end of the suggested price range.

 

Then I'd check back in a few weeks later and there would be high buy orders again.

 

Are these market trends or just automatic buy orders changing for some reason? Are the quickbuyers competing with eachother raising the buy orders only to then concurrently remove their orders?

 

I'm curious.

i ask the bot owners to inflate and drop every time i get bored

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A few core causes

 

1) Bots/Automation

 

2) Ratio of orders to currency

 

3) Site rules and enforcement

 

With regards to 1), services or self made systems make it easy to automatically delete all your orders, they also make it easy to automatically make many many many orders. Some have auto overcut, leads to a false impression of competition in some instances (prices up), these also have auto 'under' cut which is really just reducing down to 1 ref over the highest even if they are higher or would pay more (deflates fast)

 

With regards to 2) the same automatons that can make and manage hundreds/thousands of orders are of course paying for the privilege to spam orders. While in concept, rewarding more classified slots for donations is at least economically sound for the site, it is not really in the best interest of stable buy orders. Since you need only hold enough keys to meet your highest order, if you have for example, 100 keys you can make ~7000 keys in orders. Naturally they won't all be at all the keys you have, but the point is made. These bots/entities with thousands of orders need only hold a tiny tiny tiny fraction of what they are 'promising' to pay in order to give the illusion that prices are high/available.

 

With regards to 3) this just builds on the top 2). There is really no timing requirement or obligation to honor a buy order. This has been established many times.

As far as I know, literally nothing described above is outside the rules.

 

So you have a really 'soft' commitment to pay some amount, with no way to ever cover all the soft obligations you made and then 'you' didn't even make them. Your bot/paid service made the orders and will cancel them the second the guy/gal/bot 1 ref under you drops off.

 

Yes there are some oversimplifications above, some algorithms are going to use more sophisticated filters/cut/overbid logic to avoid manipulation mostly but they're still subject to the same up/down pressures.

And of course once your 2000 buy orders for >1000x the actual pure you have on hand start to hit, you can really only honor like 1/1000 of them anyhow (til you run out of pure)

 

The buy order conundrum is really simple in my opinion, no one should ever sell to a buy order unless they paid less than it is for.

Naturally, this will never happen so the bot infestation, algorithmic swinging and general buy order fluctuation will continue.

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On one particular day, your hat will be worth 20 keys. The next, bots will stick it to the little guy and offer you an equivalent of 3 wheat for a single emerald. is what it is.

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