Help pricing my new unusual taunts

[Mcfighter2]

So I used two unusualifiers, a zoomin' broom and another a flippin' awesome, and I got:

an Aurora Borealis Zoomin' (https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Taunt%3A Zoomin' Broom/Tradable/Craftable/3070) and a Galvanic Defiance Flippin' (https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Taunt%3A Flippin' Awesome/Tradable/Craftable/3067).

What do you think each of these should be priced at, and should I try and sell them ASAP or should I hold on to them for a little while?

I was thinking 40~35 keys and ~15 keys respectively.

[awsommv]

Sell in the hype, we have no idea how much shit costs. 20 sounds high long term for the zoomin and so does the flippin

[purple person]

The halloween effects will become far rarer once November hits due to no longer guaranteed scream fortress effect on unusuals/unusualifiers. Keep them for a while, not to mention both are "AFK" taunts which basically automatically increases their price. 

 

More people should keep brand new unusuals for longer but they see a few keys and they can't resist 

[Alecto]

1 hour ago, purple person said:

The halloween effects will become far rarer once November hits due to no longer guaranteed scream fortress effect on unusuals/unusualifiers. Keep them for a while, not to mention both are "AFK" taunts which basically automatically increases their price. 

 

More people should keep brand new unusuals for longer but they see a few keys and they can't resist 

I disagree with this

The update's been out for less than a week. People who get excited about this stuff have checked out the new effects and workes out what they like. They know most of the unboxing/unusualifying happens right at the start of the event, they don't want to miss on their preferred effect/hat/taunt combo so they try to get one early. 

From the seller's perspective, there's not really any evidence to base prices for anything off - they just unboxed it and not really having anything more than 'does this look like something that traders want' they usually highball the prices - to take advantage of the hype surrounding the new effects and to see what offers come in. 

 

By the time November hits, all the new effects except for the best get lumped into the 'halloween effects from the last few years nobody knows/cares about because there's so many now' basket and the market for them is rather difficult for the seller. 
Unless you've got an undisputable top tier effect (eg Bewitched, Enchanted, Accursed), it's really not likely to go up in value so soon - and this is even more so the case with taunts which aren't Conga/Kazotsky/Mannrobics/Schadenfreude.

[RockSolidWood]

okay, well heres what happened to me last year. I unufied a rps, and got spellbound aspect (considered to be pretty top tier for last years effects I believe) and I thought after watching it over a while, it would surely be about yknow, 20, 25k. Seems a lot closer to 50, now.

 

[Mcfighter2]

1 hour ago, RockSolidWood said:

okay, well heres what happened to me last year. I unufied a rps, and got spellbound aspect (considered to be pretty top tier for last years effects I believe) and I thought after watching it over a while, it would surely be about yknow, 20, 25k. Seems a lot closer to 50, now.

 

Do you think the aurora effects are gonna be as top tier as those 3 taunt effects from last year? If so, I just might hold on to my zoomin'

[Keroro1454]

On 10/9/2021 at 1:32 AM, Alecto said:

I disagree with this

The update's been out for less than a week. People who get excited about this stuff have checked out the new effects and workes out what they like. They know most of the unboxing/unusualifying happens right at the start of the event, they don't want to miss on their preferred effect/hat/taunt combo so they try to get one early. 

From the seller's perspective, there's not really any evidence to base prices for anything off - they just unboxed it and not really having anything more than 'does this look like something that traders want' they usually highball the prices - to take advantage of the hype surrounding the new effects and to see what offers come in. 

 

By the time November hits, all the new effects except for the best get lumped into the 'halloween effects from the last few years nobody knows/cares about because there's so many now' basket and the market for them is rather difficult for the seller. 
Unless you've got an undisputable top tier effect (eg Bewitched, Enchanted, Accursed), it's really not likely to go up in value so soon - and this is even more so the case with taunts which aren't Conga/Kazotsky/Mannrobics/Schadenfreude.

 

Hard disagree. With some very specific exceptions, Halloween taunts have all inflated in price over time. The few exceptions to this rule has been the spider effects and Roaring Rockets, but anyone could have told you those weren't going to ever really rise in price due to the excessively obtrusive or outright terrible/invisible nature of those effects, respectively. Even effects that I recall people trashing on a few years back like the Acid/Flammable bubble ones have now close to doubled in value, and even older effects that weren't popular like Hellish Inferno are some of the most expensive taunt effects there are.

 

A big part of this is rarity, an aspect of trading you completely ignored. Even if the effects aren't godly such that they'll garner a massive demand over their aesthetic appeal, they are still going to be something with a permanently-fixed supply, a supply that will only dwindle as players owning effect/taunt combos stop playing, lose their accounts, decide to keep the item, etc. If you look at classifieds for nearly any Halloween effect unusual taunt that's more than a year old, you'll be lucky if you find any for sale. That kind of scarcity will breed higher prices, regardless of taunt effect; again, excluding very specific situations, but I don't identify any of the effects from this Halloween as being bottom-tier. And hell, even bottom-tier stuff like spiders and roaring rockets have seen their prices slowly rising, I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the latter is actually fairly pricey (despite being such a disappointingly terrible effect, seriously Valve just increase the spawn rate of the rockets by like 100% and it'd be top-tier imo).

[Mcfighter2]

6 hours ago, Keroro1454 said:

 

Hard disagree. With some very specific exceptions, Halloween taunts have all inflated in price over time. The few exceptions to this rule has been the spider effects and Roaring Rockets, but anyone could have told you those weren't going to ever really rise in price due to the excessively obtrusive or outright terrible/invisible nature of those effects, respectively. Even effects that I recall people trashing on a few years back like the Acid/Flammable bubble ones have now close to doubled in value, and even older effects that weren't popular like Hellish Inferno are some of the most expensive taunt effects there are.

 

A big part of this is rarity, an aspect of trading you completely ignored. Even if the effects aren't godly such that they'll garner a massive demand over their aesthetic appeal, they are still going to be something with a permanently-fixed supply, a supply that will only dwindle as players owning effect/taunt combos stop playing, lose their accounts, decide to keep the item, etc. If you look at classifieds for nearly any Halloween effect unusual taunt that's more than a year old, you'll be lucky if you find any for sale. That kind of scarcity will breed higher prices, regardless of taunt effect; again, excluding very specific situations, but I don't identify any of the effects from this Halloween as being bottom-tier. And hell, even bottom-tier stuff like spiders and roaring rockets have seen their prices slowly rising, I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the latter is actually fairly pricey (despite being such a disappointingly terrible effect, seriously Valve just increase the spawn rate of the rockets by like 100% and it'd be top-tier imo).

Thanks, so does this mean I should hang on to my unusual taunts? By the way, I swapped the galvanic defiance for a wispy halos flippin' since I didn't like galvanic defiance.

[Alecto]

7 hours ago, Keroro1454 said:

 

Hard disagree. With some very specific exceptions, Halloween taunts have all inflated in price over time. The few exceptions to this rule has been the spider effects and Roaring Rockets, but anyone could have told you those weren't going to ever really rise in price due to the excessively obtrusive or outright terrible/invisible nature of those effects, respectively. Even effects that I recall people trashing on a few years back like the Acid/Flammable bubble ones have now close to doubled in value, and even older effects that weren't popular like Hellish Inferno are some of the most expensive taunt effects there are.

 

A big part of this is rarity, an aspect of trading you completely ignored. Even if the effects aren't godly such that they'll garner a massive demand over their aesthetic appeal, they are still going to be something with a permanently-fixed supply, a supply that will only dwindle as players owning effect/taunt combos stop playing, lose their accounts, decide to keep the item, etc. If you look at classifieds for nearly any Halloween effect unusual taunt that's more than a year old, you'll be lucky if you find any for sale. That kind of scarcity will breed higher prices, regardless of taunt effect; again, excluding very specific situations, but I don't identify any of the effects from this Halloween as being bottom-tier. And hell, even bottom-tier stuff like spiders and roaring rockets have seen their prices slowly rising, I wouldn't be surprised if in three years the latter is actually fairly pricey (despite being such a disappointingly terrible effect, seriously Valve just increase the spawn rate of the rockets by like 100% and it'd be top-tier imo).

Person I was responding to was talking about holding onto them until the end of the update before selling them. I stand by what I said regarding that time frame.
Yes, over several months/a couple of years the value grows on these sorts of effects. But it takes time. 

[Keroro1454]

25 minutes ago, Mcfighter2 said:

Thanks, so does this mean I should hang on to my unusual taunts? By the way, I swapped the galvanic defiance for a wispy halos flippin' since I didn't like galvanic defiance.

 

If you're looking to maximize your returns on the taunt, then yes. Personally I like the aesthetic of the Wispy more as well, though I have been noting that the electric effects are far more prominent compared to the wisps. We'll have to see how the market settles in the end.

[RockSolidWood]

On 10/10/2021 at 1:43 PM, Mcfighter2 said:

Do you think the aurora effects are gonna be as top tier as those 3 taunt effects from last year? If so, I just might hold on to my zoomin'

In all honesty, its down to patience. If you like it a lot, I don't see why not. But I'd try to avoid getting too personally attached to it because at the end of the day all the hat investments I've made proceed to be items I don't want to part with hahaha.... See what it prices at perhaps and then go about deciding on selling.