perhaps a stupid question- do people really get close to the insane buyout prices on some H'ween hats?

[Shelley Duvall]

I've been steadily building my collection again over the summer/fall and I was thinking of offering on something higher tier since I have a good amount of 1 of 1/2/3 hats and such. But some of these prices seem totally absurd. I'd love to offer on some of these but it feels insulting to go so below the value, but the value is so hyper inflated I don't know what to think. Am I crazy for thinking between all my unusuals I should be able to get a unique effect on a good soldier hat?

[awsommv]

what value and what unique effect and what good soldier

[Shelley Duvall]

Well, rhetorical, but something like, an Armored Authority or Infernal Impaler, that are mid tier hats, but with a good, even great, effect like Knifestorm. I could imagine that being like, 5-600 keys, which would be just at the limit of what I could afford, but it's 1000, even though it's 1 of 4. I realize scarcity isn't the only thing, but surely some of these prices are unrealistic.

[Shelley Duvall]

Or, for that matter, hats that are very low on the value end, like the Brain Bucket, which does have a Knifestorm going for 600. It just seems like valuations on 'old' Halloween effects are extremely inconsistent and out of date.

[Shelley Duvall]

The main question of my thread really is, do people actually pay these prices or do people just list insanely high and pray?

[Mr. Panzer]

From what I hear, people do actually pay these prices given enough time. You're right, scarcity is a big part, and part of the reason why the prices for these old, expensive items will only continue to become more expensive.

 

My advice is offer whatever you think is a reasonable price, so what if they decline.

[LaughingLollipop]

It does take two sides to make a deal

 

However, the duality on something that hasn't been unboxable in >5 years and exists in single digit quantities is heavily tilted towards the current owner of the item

People with low asking prices or reasonable b/os got bought out long ago

Lots are also locked in accounts that don't seem to be active

[neowizar]

Since I'm dealing with a lot of different halloween and other rare limited unusuals I can certainly say that these priced are not "absurd" as you say. People are willing to pay such high prices (Trust me I've made hundreds of keys buying and reselling them) because almost all halloween effects look really good  and since you can't unbox them anymore that obviously increases the demand for these kind of hats. Also effects like Knifestorm/Arcana/Spellbound/Bonzo etc are considered as the best unusuals effects in the whole game. And I mean people are willing to spend insanse amounts on cs go knifes like rubys so I'm not really suprised that these "exclusive" effects have been rising over the past years.

[AShyRag]

2 hours ago, neowizar said:

Since I'm dealing with a lot of different halloween and other rare limited unusuals I can certainly say that these priced are not "absurd" as you say. People are willing to pay such high prices (Trust me I've made hundreds of keys buying and reselling them) because almost all halloween effects look really good  and since you can't unbox them anymore that obviously increases the demand for these kind of hats. Also effects like Knifestorm/Arcana/Spellbound/Bonzo etc are considered as the best unusuals effects in the whole game. And I mean people are willing to spend insanse amounts on cs go knifes like rubys so I'm not really suprised that these "exclusive" effects have been rising over the past years.

Thank you 

[Keks]

just look at accepted price suggestions and you'll see "wow... they really did pay a lot"

[G R O W U P]

I think personally there is a bubble around halloween effects, and it will eventually pop sooner or later. so im just waiting for it. but i dont know if its 5 months or 5 years more

[Nickman]

55 minutes ago, ShadowClanZ said:

I think personally there is a bubble around halloween effects, and it will eventually pop sooner or later. so im just waiting for it. but i dont know if its 5 months or 5 years more

At this rate, I only see the bubble popping when tf2 is dead.

 

neowizar hit the nail on the head. You've got some of the best effects in the game with single digit populations on most hats, with a ton of them being locked away in collector's backpacks or inactive accounts. The demand for these hats heavily outweigh the supply and the supply only appears to be shrinking.

 

I'm just glad I got my halloween cowls years ago, before everyone else realized how good they were lol.

[Buddy]

I don't get it either. Arcana and Spellbound are hardly visible, Knifestorm is plain ugly and Bonzo looks like a cat's asshole.

[Shelley Duvall]

I feel lucky I was able to pick something up that I could just barely afford, given everything. I do appreciate the responses from people with more expertise in the area. I kind of felt like it was the same kind of market manipulation as there is around Elite Grades but its clear that a lot of these hats do get bought by people after collecting for a long time and then never leave that inventory.

[Keroro1454]

16 hours ago, Buddy said:

I don't get it either. Arcana and Spellbound are hardly visible, Knifestorm is plain ugly and Bonzo looks like a cat's asshole.

 

Absolutely terrible take that I am definitely not biased against. Except for Knifestorm, that effect truly is hideous and while I get it'll be hyper-expensive due to the rarity of it...man, that is just such an ugly effect featuring chunky .pngs of knives falling on you. Arcana/Spellbound are pretty visible though, not sure why you think they aren't. They're no Scorching, sure, but that really shouldn't be the standard of visibility given how eye-searing it is (ironically, far more so than the effect named Searing)!

 

And I mean, as everyone has pointed out, it's a rarity thing. As more people enter the economy (perhaps through the explosive popularity of digital investments like NFTs? Could be an interesting area of study) looking to invest and make profit, of course the first things to spike would be the absurdly rare old Halloween effects (many of which do indeed look amazing). 

 

3 hours ago, Shelley Duvall said:

I feel lucky I was able to pick something up that I could just barely afford, given everything. I do appreciate the responses from people with more expertise in the area. I kind of felt like it was the same kind of market manipulation as there is around Elite Grades but its clear that a lot of these hats do get bought by people after collecting for a long time and then never leave that inventory.

 

If it makes you feel better, welcome aboard the rocket ship that is Halloween effects! More likely than not, your investment is only going to appreciate in value, so congrats!