thecityburns2day Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm p. Tour 50 and I've found five so far. Three of them from t1 to t10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm pretty sure I saw a spreadsheet several months ago that mapped out aussies distribution per level. True, low levels are much more common, which initially gives the impression that it's much more likely to get aussies at lower levels of tour completion. But the analysis is flawed. The number of grinders (I'm going to define that as anybody with more than 20 tours) is significantly less as compared to players who just tried out MvM for a few tours and then never bothered with it again. Basically: If there are 10,000 players who played 5 tours or less, and only 100 players who played 100 tours or less, obviously the number of aussie levels =< 5 is going to be much higher than aussie levels =< 100. This is assuming that the drop rate is in fact equal regardless of tour number, which it appears to be. From what I remember it was based on levels. The total number of badges was used, but the number deleted is insignificant because a new badge will be made by that person later on. The badge deletion is negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacobmeister Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Maybe it's exponential, when someone has a chance of finding an Australium weapon? Like, for example, having a higher chance of finding one in their first few tours, then having it drop down to normal drop rate after a certain amount?Seems rather evil, but clever on Valve's part if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I'm p. Tour 50 and I've found five so far. Three of them from t1 to t10 damn you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scrublordington the III Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I could see this on stats.tf Nice work! Really cool too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Maybe it's exponential, when someone has a chance of finding an Australium weapon? Like, for example, having a higher chance of finding one in their first few tours, then having it drop down to normal drop rate after a certain amount? Seems rather evil, but clever on Valve's part if so. It actually seems more random with a decreasing chance as you increase in the tour count on you badge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bae Be Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 All this hardwork, great job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
❤ΣκαπανέαςGr❤ Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 I found 2 out of 57 tours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint vs. machine Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Necro bump because this drop percentage is wayyyy off and I've heard way too many people throwing around this percentage as correct because "wow look how much work is done on it!" OP, I had a good long think and I'm pretty sure I finally realized why your chance/percentage is incorrect: people who have not yet found an australium weapon will appear to have a 0.0000% drop chance! According to your September data, players with <10 tours done account for ~33% of all Two Cities players. Players with <25 tours done account for ~50%. This is an extremely significant amount of players who have more than likely not found an aussie yet! To a lesser extent, this logic applies to people like me who haven't found an aussie in 100+ tours. In my case, I've found 1 aussie in 157 two cities tours, and that was on tour 34 (123 tours dry, baby!). According to the your math, my chance would be 1/157=0.63%. However, if my average had been taken as soon as I'd found the first aussie at 34, my chance of an aussie drop would be 1/34=2.9%. On the same train of thought, if I found an aussie tomorrow on 158 (hey, I can dream right?), my chance would be 2/158=1.26%. Full post on reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/tf2/comments/2tw43c/its_mann_up_profitable/co4hujh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ixenzo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 oi What event has the chance of dropping an aussie? Tour completion. How many tours have been completed accumulatively? He has the number. How many aussies are there? He has the number. That's all you need to find the percentage. Just because someone found an aussie on their first tour doesn't mean they have 100% chance of finding it. They just got into those 0.39% not after 34th, 52nd, 100th, etc roll of the dice, but only after the first one. An aussie drop is an event that doesn't depend on the previous or future rolls. You complete the tour - you roll the dice. That's it. If you want to find the chance of finding an aussie after a certain number of consecutive aussieless tours: Assuming the drop rate is 0.39%. In 500 tours, you have 85.83% chance of getting an aussie. Vice versa: the chance of getting 5 aussies in a row is 0.902241199 × 10^-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Math Not to mention this is the GLOBAL DROP RATE. It can only be loosely applied to an individual's chances and is not meant to be a direct interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A n d y Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 I wonder what's the percent chance of getting the Golden Frying Pan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NICK THE THIRD Posted February 1, 2015 Share Posted February 1, 2015 Now, This shows I need to start two cities. Gonna finish operation oil spill though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted February 2, 2015 Share Posted February 2, 2015 I wonder what's the percent chance of getting the Golden Frying Pan Lower than low. It was on the doc at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xeomuz Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Truth that need to be know https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhNnUOpE7bw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecityburns2day Posted February 3, 2015 Share Posted February 3, 2015 Well hot damn. I must've been lucky dropping 2 Aussies in 7 tours. So I have a better chance playing on my ALT than playing on this account with 33 tours and 0 Australiums. no you have the same chance of getting it on your 1st tour as you do on your 200th tour. if i do the math 0.433% of the people with tours got it on there 1st tour That surely can't be right? Several people (3 or 4) in my friends list found Australium weapon and they don't have even 100 tours combined. I've found five Aussie weapons in 43tours. Blutsauger the day after Aussies came out, rocket on t2, scatter on t3, SMG on t41 and tomislav on t43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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