HusKy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 yes i got all the info from backpack.tf and stats.tf Where does the number of tours come from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Prince Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well hot damn. I must've been lucky dropping 2 Aussies in 7 tours. Friend of mine got 2 in 4 tours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
`Zetsu!~ Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 42 tours here with 0 aussies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacustjack Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So that means... 1 / 0.0061 (Golden Pan Drop Rate) = about 164 tours to get a golden pan, or 164 * 3.22 (Current ticket price) * 4 (Tours necessary) = 2184.44 refined 2184.44 / 7.11 (Current key price) / 20 (Current bud price) = 15 buds and 8 keys on average to obtain a golden pan. Which means that 103 (Current golden pan price) / 15.4 (Cost to obtain) = 6.69 With enough time and effort, you should 669% profit by obtaining a golden pans and selling them off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Where does the number of tours come from? http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Operation%20Two%20Cities%20Badge/Non-Tradable/Craftable if you take a look at what lvl the badge is you can tell how many tours were done lvl 1 badge does not count b/c they have not finished a full tour. lvl 2 right now has 21833. so 21833 players did one tour. lvl 3 9440 so 9440 players did 2 tours that would be 18,880 tours and so on..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 So that means... 1 / 0.0061 (Golden Pan Drop Rate) = about 164 tours to get a golden pan, or 164 * 3.22 (Current ticket price) * 4 (Tours necessary) = 2184.44 refined 2184.44 / 7.11 (Current key price) / 20 (Current bud price) = 15 buds and 8 keys on average to obtain a golden pan. Which means that 103 (Current golden pan price) / 15.4 (Cost to obtain) = 6.69 With enough time and effort, you should 669% profit by obtaining a golden pans and selling them off your math is wrong. you have a 1:16,393 chance to get a gold pan 1/0.000061=16,393 tours that would be 1535 buds to get that many tours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HusKy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Operation%20Two%20Cities%20Badge/Non-Tradable/Craftable if you take a look at what lvl the badge is you can tell how many tours were done lvl 1 badge does not count b/c they have not finished a full tour. lvl 2 right now has 21833. so 21833 players did one tour. lvl 3 9440 so 9440 players did 2 tours that would be 18,880 tours and so on..... Wow. In that case, this is a really nice stats compilation. I wouldn't have guessed the drop rate to be so low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Thank you HusKy. i might do a basic drop rate for the botkillers just to compare. the one thing that i have seen that makes it look like there are alot out there is that almost 80%-90% of them are up for trade or sell. i counted a few days back and there was 79 Rocket Launchers out and 62 were on outpost for trade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CocoaNut Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Do these numbers take into account private backpacks? I know of a few people with private backpacks and enough australium weapons that could skew the numbers, given how small the number of australium weapons is. Edit: I'm guessing not. Why do people keep forgetting that so much item wealth rests in the hands of people that don't want unsolicited offers of 2 rec for their unusuals and festive strange scatterguns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VoxDei Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yes I can not count the ones in private backpacks. I also can't count their tour numbers. For all we know there are 1500 more australiums in private backpacks. There could also be 250,000 more tour completions in private backpacks too. There are also people that have deleted their badge to reset their tour count to zero. That would raise the tour numbers completed even higher and make the drop rate even lower. I counted everything that is public and with 5.8 million public profiles I think I have a very good estimate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Prince Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 if already met some one with 130 tours and 0 aussies found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Operation%20Two%20Cities%20Badge/Non-Tradable/Craftable if you take a look at what lvl the badge is you can tell how many tours were done lvl 1 badge does not count b/c they have not finished a full tour. lvl 2 right now has 21833. so 21833 players did one tour. lvl 3 9440 so 9440 players did 2 tours that would be 18,880 tours and so on..... And there is the major flaw. So everyone got a free ticket @Christmas and many people played 1 mission with that ticket but didn't play another one so they didn't complete the tour. Iirc you get that item for only playing 1 mission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 And there is the major flaw. So everyone got a free ticket @Christmas and many people played 1 mission with that ticket but didn't play another one so they didn't complete the tour. Iirc you get that item for only playing 1 mission. Woifi i know this and i did not count them. you get the badge for doing 1 map. the badge will be lvl 1. so i did not count the lvl 1 badge. like right now there are 37,590 lvl 1 badges. they did not complete a tour so i did not count them in the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HusKy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Brad could actually make this table live and it would update directly from the data @ bp.tf/stats.tf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 HusKy that would be great. I was thinking of updating it my self from time to time. If he could make it live that would be much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knavesmith Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 HusKy that would be great. I was thinking of updating it my self from time to time. If he could make it live that would be much better.Brad Time. You'll be here awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FireStarter101 Posted September 13, 2014 Author Share Posted September 13, 2014 I updated the spreadsheet. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dJWmNnptCy3BZClNi4JQHDPloRZPt4nXhGj-wJu6CBg/pubhtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mint vs. machine Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 That is definitely, absolutely, 100% too low. Highest dry streak I have ever heard of is 176, which implies an average of 1 australium every ~90 if the rules of standard deviation are to be followed. (1.11% chance) To say that there is an AVERAGE of 1 australium per 250 tours is absurd. Couple reasons I can think of right off the bat for this low percentage -Did you check for Pro and Spec KS variants of the weapons on steam market? Particularly noticeable for the more valued weapons (Wrench, Eyelander, etc.), I think it would make sense that more of these would be on market -Private backpacks, particularly with Steam's new system of privating everyone's backpack who has not changed settings to say otherwise. Yes I know you've mentioned this previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 So i did the math and made a Google Doc for everyone to see. Link Fixed https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?key=0Av6Pw_RW-qmldGo4UDBCZ1FDenJjMWhBVjZYdEtHcFE&single=true&gid=0&output=html update 9/12/14 https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dJWmNnptCy3BZClNi4JQHDPloRZPt4nXhGj-wJu6CBg/pubhtml It seems a bit low. While I've met people with 100+ tours and no gold drops, it's not actually that common. Just drawing from personal experience, it seems that the majority of players get roughly one aussie drop for every 50 tours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ixenzo Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Fun fact: a lot of people delete their badge every once in a while, thus reducing the total number of tours completed => real % is even lower. simpler:1. Complete 500 tours, get, say, 2 aussies. 2. Delete your badge. 3. You have 0 tours and 2 aussies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Draco Blaze Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 Fun fact: a lot of people delete their badge every once in a while, thus reducing the total number of tours completed => real % is even lower. simpler: 1. Complete 500 tours, get, say, 2 aussies. 2. Delete your badge. 3. You have 0 tours and 2 aussies. The Aussie levels work the same as botkillers. The level of the Aussie is the tour it was awarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PinkiePie Posted November 12, 2014 Share Posted November 12, 2014 So what you're saying is: it's easier to unbox an unusual than get an australium? tods r cheaper though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gren Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 The Aussie levels work the same as botkillers. The level of the Aussie is the tour it was awarded. ^ This. I'm pretty sure I saw a spreadsheet several months ago that mapped out aussies distribution per level. True, low levels are much more common, which initially gives the impression that it's much more likely to get aussies at lower levels of tour completion. But the analysis is flawed. The number of grinders (I'm going to define that as anybody with more than 20 tours) is significantly less as compared to players who just tried out MvM for a few tours and then never bothered with it again. Basically: If there are 10,000 players who played 5 tours or less, and only 100 players who played 100 tours or less, obviously the number of aussie levels =< 5 is going to be much higher than aussie levels =< 100. This is assuming that the drop rate is in fact equal regardless of tour number, which it appears to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Пол игрока trade karambite Posted November 13, 2014 Share Posted November 13, 2014 Pretty sure drop rate is 0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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