Higher unusual drop rates immediately following an update?

[kritzkow]

This is a stretch but has anyone else noticed how your chances of unboxing an unusual are significantly higher for the first hour of an update (scream fortress, smissmass, etc.)? A few veteran traders told me its because valve wants players to go on servers and show everyone their new hat and effect, which will inspire others to unbox. 

Side note, i made an alt account and on my first crate, i got an unusual. Drop rates are higher for new players for a certain amount of time?

[Strife Hale]

Myth #1: Listening to others about unboxing guide(most popular)

Myth #2: Believing someone like your gonna die in the next min just because someone unboxed an unusual in their 1st crate

Myth #3: My friend unboxed many unusuals, so I will get them too. I'm a legend

 

[Relic]

25 minutes ago, Strife Hale said:

Myth #1: Listening to others about unboxing guide(most popular)

Myth #2: Believing someone like your gonna die in the next min just because someone unboxed an unusual in their 1st crate

Myth #3: My friend unboxed many unusuals, so I will get them too. I'm a legend

 

Myth #4: Profit

[kritzkow]

25 minutes ago, Strife Hale said:

Myth #1: Listening to others about unboxing guide(most popular)

Myth #2: Believing someone like your gonna die in the next min just because someone unboxed an unusual in their 1st crate

Myth #3: My friend unboxed many unusuals, so I will get them too. I'm a legend

 

I think its clever marketing, they just get other players to promote their new effects/hats. Maybe the time to do so would quicker than an hour, nevertheless, its a good way to get players to spend money on keys and crates on the market. Valle hooks new players in by giving them an unusual or rare item the first times they unbox, but sometimes they dont know how rare it is and sell it for dirt cheap on the scm.

[LaughingLollipop]

In other news, unboxing volume dictates the number of unusuals unboxed

 

When would you expect the unbox rate to be the highest

[Creeping Python]

If this really was the case, people would already be exploiting it and Valve would have nerfed it. High-End traders take this economy way too seriously to let something like this just slip by un-noticed. Absolutely no way that this is a feature.

[n_n]

It's possible, but it also might be difficult to manage this. I'm not sure if Valve would go through the trouble of adding this extra layer of complexity.

[Jarool]

this holds up as much as "there are more low-levelled australiums so you have a better chance of getting an australium if you're on a low tour number". there are more people completing their first tour of an mvm mission set than there are people completing their 100th mission, so naturally, you'll see more people getting aussies on their first few tours. 

 

similarly, there are more people unboxing after an update, or during halloween, so you're gonna see more unusuals unboxed then.

[hooters]

instead of discussing it, how about we do some crowd sourcing and have many people create accounts and then submit their results?  could be a fun way to spend 10 bucks

[kritzkow]

36 minutes ago, Yellowsubs said:

instead of discussing it, how about we do some crowd sourcing and have many people create accounts and then submit their results?  could be a fun way to spend 10 bucks

i did this with two separate accounts, first one got an unusual and the second one got a purple or pink cosmetic on the first unbox. Could be a cool experiment 

[kritzkow]

In addition to what i said earlier, i think some accounts just have a better chance overall of unboxing stuff, while some don’t. Kinda like after an account gets premium, one could get better stuff while another gets mediocre stuff, solely based on whatever set chance the account was given. Not to be mistaken as random chance on each unbox, but an sort of limiting how good the loot can be from any unboxing. An example would be someone who just unboxes blues and purples, while someone gets purple and pinks or an unusual.

[h21]

I think its possible, I unboxed on diff accounts last year and in the first 20 cases I always got an unusual hat, rinse and repeat onto a new account then I wait a week and it happens again.

[MailDaemon]

I think you're searching for patterns where there are none.

Also, it would be pretty concerning if this were the case, as it would indicate a lack of transparency from Valve regarding the drop mechanics of crates. Fortunately, it's highly unlikely such a feature exists.

[kritzkow]

i’ve seen lots of good arguments saying otherwise, and i’m keeping an open mind. However, i’m still not convinced i’m wrong. I’d like to be online for the first hour of this next screamfortress update to experiment, but we’ll just have to wait and see because i’m not sure it’ll be released on october 1st. Furthermore, i’d like to talk more about my second comment and how new players have a higher drop rate for a limited time. I would even go as far to say that the value of the item can differ, such as a cheap unusual taunt that’ll hook them into tf2, but not give them something too valuable. Granted, there are a few exceptions i’ve seen where a new player gets a mega rare hat and sell its for $10 on scm. Nevertheless, if someone had a few bucks laying around and wouldn’t mind a 15 day trade hold, it would be something worth looking into. I made $40 with an unusual taunt i unboxed after spending $10 making a new account and unboxing!

[kritzkow]

9 hours ago, LaughingLollipop said:

In other news, unboxing volume dictates the number of unusuals unboxed

 

When would you expect the unbox rate to be the highest

only the first 30 mins to an hour would the drop rate be higher than normal. Perhaps even lower, just to get a good amount of new unusuals in the game so people can flaunt them on servers. however, valve could possibly limit how many unusuals you unbox after getting your first one. I’d figure the unusual would be in the first few crates, and then it’s back to normal. That way you don’t abuse the system and mass unbox for  however long the high drop rate timer is

[Shotgun]

Using this information i will be able to have a higher chance of getting new effects during the first hour of halloween

[Very Frank]

3 hours ago, kritzkow said:

i’ve seen lots of good arguments saying otherwise, and i’m keeping an open mind. However, i’m still not convinced i’m wrong. I’d like to be online for the first hour of this next screamfortress update to experiment, but we’ll just have to wait and see because i’m not sure it’ll be released on october 1st. Furthermore, i’d like to talk more about my second comment and how new players have a higher drop rate for a limited time. I would even go as far to say that the value of the item can differ, such as a cheap unusual taunt that’ll hook them into tf2, but not give them something too valuable. Granted, there are a few exceptions i’ve seen where a new player gets a mega rare hat and sell its for $10 on scm. Nevertheless, if someone had a few bucks laying around and wouldn’t mind a 15 day trade hold, it would be something worth looking into. I made $40 with an unusual taunt i unboxed after spending $10 making a new account and unboxing!

"There is no evidence disproving what I just made up, therefore I must be right!"

[louisclub]

7 hours ago, kritzkow said:

I would even go as far to say that the value of the item can differ, such as a cheap unusual taunt that’ll hook them into tf2

 

Valve doesnt decide the resale value of uncrate item, its entirely decided by the trading community and by supply and demand. they attribute various level of rarity to all cases item but its far from being the main price factor. some elite grade hats are worth less than a key while some worth in the range of 100 keys. some older cases are rare because not many players were playing at the time of those events, some cases are cheap and so are their unusuals because there are a million of them. 

 

Some traders unbox hundreds of cases at a time, and on the other hands there are hundreds of players who unbox one or two cases. both group gets cheap and expensive unusuals. 

 

This theory makes no sense, because valve could have a good-old random drop rates and we would observe the same result as we get now. its possible to get 2 unusuals in a row, as it is possible to unbox 600 crates and get none. both are rare events, but when it happens people shout it loud and everyone hears it. you dont hear the hundreds of normal unusual unboxs by regular players. 

[kritzkow]

3 hours ago, Very Frank said:

"There is no evidence disproving what I just made up, therefore I must be right!"

so from what i’ve seen in my experience  and similar situations from others, i have a good reason to believe it’s not such a far fetched theory. I wouldn’t have made this discussion up if I hadn’t noticed something out of the ordinary

[karma miguel]

Just by reading the title, that’s how I’ve felt for the last like 8 years. I always try to unbox during the first hour of a big update.

[LSO]

Correlation =/= causation

 

As others have said, it's all volume.

[neonfishingrod]

nobody in this thread understands the meaning of the word "random"

[ApothicЯ]

This would explain the crate depression case. Maybe they put a 100% unusual drop rate instead of >1% the hours following an update...