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Woifi The Viking

How to make profit thread

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Woifi The Viking

Feel free to ask for tips and pointers on how to make profit here. This is not a place to ask if the last trade you made was ok, but rather, it's meant for people who are new to TF2 and who need some general advice on what to look for and what to avoid. This is the place to discuss when to craft and when to unbox, or if you should unbox at all. When to hoard Salvaged Stranges, when to sell those Christmas hats and every market trend in between.

Will merge other threads into this. So please don't make new ones about any of this topics.

 

Well, I've noticing when trading that not a lot of people want miami (or new effects in general) and i also almost got a miami tc for 10 pure, which was like a 30+ buds hat and a lot of other miamis seem to be dropping (a friend of mine also almost got a miami antlers for 3 pure + a 3 bud hat). Are all of the new effects dropping hard in value is or is just miami? New effects do seem to be annoyingly hard to sell, especially if you're trying to get old effects, but are the values going down because of this? I also think the hype died because they're getting old and everyone can still unbox them.

Also are the new halloween effects dropping in value too? People went crazy for the ones in 2012, and I'm not really seeing that happen for 2013 ones (compare the price of the spellbound tc and offers to a harvest moon one or any other 2012 effect).

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Mr. Bigglesworth

yeah, Valve has really messed up the unusual market with the bazillion new (extremely ugly) effects, robo/halloween 2013 effects pretty much became impossible to sell just a few short months after they came out 

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Revesilia

See - it's not that the summer effects are bad, it's that they're new. I had a bit of a laugh when I had a few friends of mine (who don't play team fortress) rate effects on a scale of 1 to 10. They actually put killa/terror at 7-10, and the plasmas at a 3 or 4. It's not about how they look - it's about the newness to the game.

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WDZ-RR Poncho Sullivan

yeah, Valve has really messed up the unusual market with the bazillion new (extremely ugly) effects, robo/halloween 2013 effects pretty much became impossible to sell just a few short months after they came out 

 

Correction, Unusual traders have messed up the unusual market with highly overhyped prices for any unusual that has the Sunbeams, Flames. Sunbeams, and other first generation effects, and their demands that they want only first generation effect hats, for the most part.

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AwesomeMcCoolName

yeah, Valve has really messed up the unusual market with the bazillion new (extremely ugly) effects, robo/halloween 2013 effects pretty much became impossible to sell just a few short months after they came out 

 

Correction, Unusual traders have messed up the unusual market with highly overhyped prices for any unusual that has the Sunbeams, Flames. Sunbeams, and other first generation effects, and their demands that they want only first generation effect hats, for the most part.

First gen effects are overhyped, but thats not why new effects don't sell. 

 

The reason why new effects don't sell is: There initial price is based entirely on hype--hype which is based off of rarity and newness. Unfortunately, none of them are rare as they've pretty much all been unboxed in mass and most of the new effects are around 10+ in existence. The problem is that people refuse to let go of the past, the current prices are all over-inflated hyped up prices, which means that they aren't going to sell because 1) No one really likes paying hyped prices, 2) Because of the hyped up prices they sell slowly and/or get few offers; which in-turn leads to people instantly rejecting new effects, which just leads to their continued crash rather than a slow, steady decline.

 

EX: Hearts is pretty much unanimously viewed as being better than cloud 9. Yet, a cloud 9 Reggae is still more (people are still setting buyouts higher) than a hearts reggae, and this is true with a lot (most) of the newer effects. 

 

Also, something, which i think has had a part in all of this, robo hats sell poorly because most people prefer the non-robo version, well, there are more robo hats with new effects than there are robo hats with old effects (when compared to their non-robo counterparts), which leads to people always seeing robo unusuals never sell because most of them are overhyped for being a 'rare' hat and a 'rare' effect. So now people see robo hats (which people don't like anyway), with extremely high buyouts, so people don't offer on them making them seem extra cancerous, which makes any on-looker see the effect as cancerous. 

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Space Jesus

There's also the theory on which crates hold what unusual effects. Older crates = older effects, newer crates = a skewed ratio of new vs old effects iirc. Which would mean more time and money required on older crates to have a better shot at older effects, hence people want to value them more than the newer effects.

 

I will say that I think some of these new effects get unnessecarily slammed due to how many other effects were released at the same time. If Valve hand picked 5-6 total from the new effects + the robo effects, the decline probably wouldn't be this bad. DBD and Miami imo don't deserve it this bad (on paper), but you lump it in with aces/DP/robo effects and down it goes.

 

Miami would have a better case if it wasn't so hugely unboxed. I dunno what the numbers are, but jesus there seems to be 10+ for every hat already.

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The Radiated Banana

Its only because the buyers think its cancerous and so everyone just has to quicksell.

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The Radiated Banana

It was never for me.

Different story for my friend. Hes crafted 2 double cross comms, a tc, a mercs muffler, mercs pride, last breath and brother hood of arms. All while his backpack was worth less than $15

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Ward - MvM Anyone?

Nopenopenopenopenope

 

Crafting 1.33 hats = 2.66 a craft. The chances of you getting a 1.33 hat out of the craft is higher than any other decent hat. DON'T CRAFT FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!

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F  CHARLIE

There's also the theory on which crates hold what unusual effects. Older crates = older effects, newer crates = a skewed ratio of new vs old effects iirc. Which would mean more time and money required on older crates to have a better shot at older effects, hence people want to value them more than the newer effects.

 

I will say that I think some of these new effects get unnessecarily slammed due to how many other effects were released at the same time. If Valve hand picked 5-6 total from the new effects + the robo effects, the decline probably wouldn't be this bad. DBD and Miami imo don't deserve it this bad (on paper), but you lump it in with aces/DP/robo effects and down it goes.

 

Miami would have a better case if it wasn't so hugely unboxed. I dunno what the numbers are, but jesus there seems to be 10+ for every hat already.

 

The crate expense theory is not relevant when dealing with unusuals.  In fact, this is why so many new ones get uncrated as items coming out of new crates payback much better until the items are common.  You can still get a key for the Law for example.  Otherwise I agree.

 

too many new effects. look at any hat with c9/watts

 

It isn't really that there are too many.  The amount of effects has nothing to do with each effects desirability.

 

First gen effects are overhyped, but thats not why new effects don't sell. 

 

The reason why new effects don't sell is: There initial price is based entirely on hype--hype which is based off of rarity and newness. Unfortunately, none of them are rare as they've pretty much all been unboxed in mass and most of the new effects are around 10+ in existence. The problem is that people refuse to let go of the past, the current prices are all over-inflated hyped up prices, which means that they aren't going to sell because 1) No one really likes paying hyped prices, 2) Because of the hyped up prices they sell slowly and/or get few offers; which in-turn leads to people instantly rejecting new effects, which just leads to their continued crash rather than a slow, steady decline.

 

EX: Hearts is pretty much unanimously viewed as being better than cloud 9. Yet, a cloud 9 Reggae is still more (people are still setting buyouts higher) than a hearts reggae, and this is true with a lot (most) of the newer effects. 

 

Also, something, which i think has had a part in all of this, robo hats sell poorly because most people prefer the non-robo version, well, there are more robo hats with new effects than there are robo hats with old effects (when compared to their non-robo counterparts), which leads to people always seeing robo unusuals never sell because most of them are overhyped for being a 'rare' hat and a 'rare' effect. So now people see robo hats (which people don't like anyway), with extremely high buyouts, so people don't offer on them making them seem extra cancerous, which makes any on-looker see the effect as cancerous. 

 

 

/\/\ Agreed /\/\

I prefer to believe that 1st gen is not overhyped, rather they are preferred because of the perception of all other effects not being able to retain value.  If gen 2 were not so much junk then 1st gen wouldn't be doing as well as it is.  In the long run gen 3 will probably do better than gen 2 and that may show if valve releases gen 4 this summer (they really need to in order to bring balance back to 3rd gen).  If that happens the market will react better this time.  Many of the reactions to 2013 effects was based on how people reacted to gen 2 when they were first released imo.

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AwesomeMcCoolName

If that happens the market will react better this time.  Many of the reactions to 2013 effects was based on how people reacted to gen 2 when they were first released imo.

Honestly, I can't see gen 4 as being treated as anything but extreme cancer just like gen 3, which could be good and bad. Good because maybe people will set realistic buyouts and the hats will actually sell avoiding the mess thats been going on for the past few months; alternatively, people will still set the same bullshit buyouts, but people won't even buy them for hyped up prices in the beginning. Unless gen 3 gets sorted out, and people realize they need to set realistic buyouts in order to stabilize (and sell) their prices, then gen 4 will be just as bad if not worse. Gen 3 needs to set a precedence for gen 4 to follow.

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F  CHARLIE

 Unless gen 3 gets sorted out, and people realize they need to set realistic buyouts in order to stabilize (and sell) their prices, then gen 4 will be just as bad if not worse. Gen 3 needs to set a precedence for gen 4 to follow.

 

 

Disagree.  A gen 4 release would stop the inflow of gen 3 and giv people a sense of what to expect from Valve.  People will be more cautious investing in gen 4 hats initially and therefore only need to sell at a lower price unlike robo and gen three.

 

Funny thing is robo is cheaper then it should be and gen 3 is still too high and Halloweens are in limbo.

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AwesomeMcCoolName

Disagree.  A gen 4 release would stop the inflow of gen 3 and giv people a sense of what to expect from Valve.  People will be more cautious investing in gen 4 hats initially and therefore only need to sell at a lower price unlike robo and gen three.

 

Funny thing is robo is cheaper then it should be and gen 3 is still too high and Halloweens are in limbo.

A gen 4 release will help stabilize gen 3, yes. BUT, gen 4 will become the unstable mess that is gen 3. If people figure out how to stabilize gen 3 (without them being retired) then they won't be able to figure out how to stabilize gen 4 either. Gen 3 needs to create a precedence showing how the effect will stabilize (while still being the "only" unboxabled effects) if Gen 4 is going to avoid the shit-show that is gen 3. 

 

Yea.....Robo effects didn't get hyped up because 3rd gen effects overhyped them since regular crates/keys were more common than robo versions. Also, I think people generally believe that robo crates are far more likely to yield robo hats (just something I've heard a lot of people say--more robo hats are unboxed from robo-crates), although its clearly not true. 

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