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Bot Prices Are Really Becoming Absurd


Nothing Availabe
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So A few Weeks ago I bought a Specialized Killstreak Festive Stickybomb for like 1 key 40 Refind, and now bots are selling it for 2 keys 20 ref+ and buy orders are 1 key 24 ref, and what's crazy about this whole thing is the fact that ref has decreased in value so they're supposed to actually pay more ref so I'm just confused, and I also bought a Spec KS Medigun a few weeks ago for like 1 key and now bots are selling it fo 2 keys and they're buying it for 50 ref, I have no idea what's going on but what I do know is mass price fixing is something that shouldn't be tolerated...

 

And I'd really love to add to this whole thread the fact that we need a mass repricing for items, because if Refind has decreased in value everything should maintain it's value and get it's price more realistic to the metal->key Ratio..

(Or in other words Jeff bought a Hat for 20 Refind (0.80 USD) back when keys were 46 ref and ref was 0.04 USD, Jeff Leaves TF2 for a while and gets back to the game and finds out keys are 62 ref now, Jeff tries to sell his 0.80 USD hat and sell other items to get to a key and gets surprised by the fact that his hat is still 20 ref when in reality it should be 27 ref because refind has become 0.03 usd (27x0.03=0.80 USD)

 

Essentially what I'm tying to say is that people who have items on them rn are getting there cheeks spread widely and are getting ripped off because they're unable to move there items without losing money, so idk what's the best thing to do right now in your opinion lads like should a person with low tier items right now keep hold of them until prices get changed or should he quicksell them and cover his/her losses by buying pure and leaving it to get his ref back with time

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2 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

(Or in other words Jeff bought a Hat for 20 Refind (0.80 USD) back when keys were 46 ref and ref was 0.04 USD, Jeff Leaves TF2 for a while and gets back to the game and finds out keys are 62 ref now, Jeff tries to sell his 0.80 USD hat and sell other items to get to a key and gets surprised by the fact that his hat is still 20 ref when in reality it should be 27 ref because refind has become 0.03 usd (27x0.03=0.80 USD)

Except most ref hats are decreasing in value over time so it'd be perfectly reasonable for his to stay in that range (ref wise).

 

2 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

And I'd really love to add to this whole thread the fact that we need a mass repricing for items,

Backpack doesn't make the prices it reports sales to make a suggested value. If the market is still buying and selling for 20 ref there is no reason to update.

 

2 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

So A few Weeks ago I bought a Specialized Killstreak Festive Stickybomb

It's smissmiss time, an increased demand for festive items is to be expected. Alternatively there was a human seller who kept trying to undercut the bots leading to the item being under valued until someone bought the human's item and the bots started to return to normal.

 

2 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

because they're unable to move there items without losing money, so idk what's the best thing to do right now in your opinion lads like should a person with low tier items right now keep hold of them until prices get changed or should he quicksell them and cover his/her losses by buying pure and leaving it to get his ref back with time

It's almost universally accepted that low tier is dead if you don't have a way to automate it. Get into the niche spell category if you want to trade under 10 keys or move onto higher tier items if you're actually looking to make money w/o a bot. Also note that once the steam sale starts almost every large volume item is going to see a price drop as people will want to be buying games and forced to quicksell en mass in order to get funds from their tf2 items.

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@FP jh34ghu43gu If I'm being honest what you said about ref hats and pricing items and festive demand is totally on point..

4 hours ago, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

It's almost universally accepted that low tier is dead if you don't have a way to automate it. Get into the niche spell category if you want to trade under 10 keys or move onto higher tier items if you're actually looking to make money w/o a bot. Also note that once the steam sale starts almost every large volume item is going to see a price drop as people will want to be buying games and forced to quicksell en mass in order to get funds from their tf2 items

 

But when it comes to spell trading I was quite into it a while ago and the issue with it was the fact that the market was oversaturated, and there is no actual reason anyone should buy spelled items after Halloween (from a normal player perspective not a trader's one) 

And unless it's something high tier/double spelled etc../or a certain item collectors are seeking (ex. A double spelled Dead of night) there's no room to make profit, because you're mostly going to end up waiting months till someone buys your Exorcism Sniper Rifle and when they do offer you're guaranteed a loss/ or not making any profit because all spell traders know what's worth what, so in my own experience unless you have something special, spell trading is a waste of time...

 

But that's Besides the point, let's say I have 18 keys to spare right now, in your opinion what's the best buy with such budget, and what should I avoid, how should I sell and what's the best venture to go through with such budget (unusual trading, pro ks kit crafting etc.. anything not bot dependent on bots to say the least)

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7 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

there is no actual reason anyone should buy spelled items after Halloween

Eternaweens and every 28 days there is a halloween event for 2 days. That's enough for me to have some spelled weapons. I'd bet a large % of players that actually participate in trading play on custom community servers anyway where halloween is always on.

 

7 hours ago, Nothing Availabe said:

let's say I have 18 keys to spare right now, in your opinion what's the best buy with such budget

I gamble by opening cases and playing 2c*, not trading up. Of the little I have "invested" I have done so in crates and cases that I can be fairly certain will go up "quickly" such as gargoyle cases @$1/each near the start of this year of which most I sold for $3 before Halloween and used the remainder to buy a handshake. But you don't want to hear that it sounds like since that took 8 months to realize profit. But since you did ask what my opinion is then that is my honest opinion for 18 keys. My current buy would probably be scream fortress war paint cases (both of them) and summer 2020 cosmetic** due to how little there is compared to previous cases. Not sure if I would wait till after smissmiss for the cosmetic crates since I assume demand is higher than normal for them right now due to the event effect chance.

 

*Fun fact: the average break even point for finding a pan in 2c is around tour 3,778. You're still probably not gonna get it as its observed drop rate*** is 1 in 19,000.

**Disclaimer: I own ~1,000 of these 2020 cases so there is a conflict of interest here. Statistically it's still a good bet :)

***Source: My manually scraped tour and drop data from 11/27/2020 Spreadsheet is in my mvm discord located on my steam profile if you want to download.

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7 hours ago, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

I gamble by opening cases and playing 2c*, not trading up. Of the little I have "invested" I have done so in crates and cases that I can be fairly certain will go up "quickly" such as gargoyle cases @$1/each near the start of this year of which most I sold for $3 before Halloween and used the remainder to buy a handshake. But you don't want to hear that it sounds like since that took 8 months to realize profit. But since you did ask what my opinion is then that is my honest opinion for 18 keys. My current buy would probably be scream fortress war paint cases (both of them) and summer 2020 cosmetic** due to how little there is compared to previous cases. Not sure if I would wait till after smissmiss for the cosmetic crates since I assume demand is higher than normal for them right now due to the event effect chance.

Investment fortress 2

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On 12/7/2020 at 4:14 PM, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

I gamble by opening cases and playing 2c*, not trading up. Of the little I have "invested" I have done so in crates and cases that I can be fairly certain will go up "quickly" such as gargoyle cases @$1/each near the start of this year of which most I sold for $3 before Halloween and used the remainder to buy a handshake. But you don't want to hear that it sounds like since that took 8 months to realize profit. But since you did ask what my opinion is then that is my honest opinion for 18 keys. My current buy would probably be scream fortress war paint cases (both of them) and summer 2020 cosmetic** due to how little there is compared to previous cases. Not sure if I would wait till after smissmiss for the cosmetic crates since I assume demand is higher than normal for them right now due to the event effect chance.

Investor Gaming

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