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Brown

Why do Bonzo hats cost so much?

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Brown

Or any old halloween effect for that matter? I ask this every time I see a halloween hat marked up 100+ keys from what it was listed at months prior, and can never find an answer. I usually see higher buy orders accompanying this markup, which typically indicates high demand. But it seems rarer for suggestions to show sales with the buyer intending to keep, rather than to resell. Most sales seem to come from people looking to relist for profit. Some hats seem to never sell at all and still see higher orders.

 

Some theories for where the hype originates include the increased interest in more sought after hats with halloween effects, like miscs and all-classes, as well as most halloweens being rarer than other effects on average. But I can't see how this explains the inflation of lower tier hats with halloween effects, hats with 0 collectors, average rarity, and 0 demand beyond resellers, hats which (I feel like) make up a good chunk of the halloween market.

 

Am I missing something? I can't find causation other than there being a cycle of resellers profiting off of resellers, for lack of a better explanation. I'm sure this question has been asked but the answer doesn't seem so simple. Maybe I haven't paid enough attention to public opinion, but I haven't seen much said about old halloweens other than how much they've gone up

 

 branching from this discussion

 

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Forgivable

Not a lot of them, and it seems some people really digs it, so they are ready to invest a lot in them.

 

I personally dont like this effect at all, but I love Knifestorm in comparisation it just depend on someone  taste

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Knightfury69

most hween effects are sexy, theyre desirable, they are rare, they can be flexed, often a good part of the ones in existence are locked/not for sale which makes the rest go up in value. 

also bonzo is fucking sexy. people highball a lot of halloweens in expectation of good offers from someone who really wants them.

and hween miscs ??- ooh lala

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Brown
18 minutes ago, Knightfury69 said:

most hween effects are sexy, theyre desirable, they are rare, they can be flexed, often a good part of the ones in existence are locked/not for sale which makes the rest go up in value. 

also bonzo is fucking sexy. people highball a lot of halloweens in expectation of good offers from someone who really wants them.

and hween miscs ??- ooh lala

I wasn't around, but I feel like this was always the case. They were always rare, good looking, I don't think people would've liked them any less than they do today, most good looking effect pairs existed back then too I think. The hype came well after they were situated in the economy. I'd assume people knew they were discontinued on older hats, not like there was a sudden community-wide realization of the fact they weren't coming back and subsequent pump, it's been mostly gradual, still inexplicable.

 

I neeeeeed to knowwwww

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hawaiian pizza

Here's my take on this matter.

 

When the crate depression took place, first gens, aka the highest tier effects of the time, fell from grace. Nobody liked them the same anymore, from an economical standpoint mostly. Then, the community gradually realised that old haloweens are perfectly fit to take the old first gens' crown and that's  exactly what happened. From then on, these effects were regarded as the creme de la creme (french for "the best of the best") since they checked all the boxes the community was looking for after the old god tiers fell from grace. 

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HaloGAMER0329
8 minutes ago, hawaiian pizza said:

Here's my take on this matter.

 

When the crate depression took place, first gens, aka the highest tier effects of the time, fell from grace. Nobody liked them the same anymore, from an economical standpoint mostly. Then, the community gradually realised that old haloweens are perfectly fit to take the old first gens' crown and that's  exactly what happened. From then on, these effects were regarded as the creme de la creme (french for "the best of the best") since they checked all the boxes the community was looking for after the old god tiers fell from grace. 

This, after crate depression people saw their expensive hats drop 50-75% in value so people went after hats that are never able to be unboxed again.

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Brown
2 hours ago, hawaiian pizza said:

Here's my take on this matter.

 

When the crate depression took place, first gens, aka the highest tier effects of the time, fell from grace. Nobody liked them the same anymore, from an economical standpoint mostly. Then, the community gradually realised that old haloweens are perfectly fit to take the old first gens' crown and that's  exactly what happened. From then on, these effects were regarded as the creme de la creme (french for "the best of the best") since they checked all the boxes the community was looking for after the old god tiers fell from grace. 

 

2 hours ago, HaloGAMER0329 said:

This, after crate depression people saw their expensive hats drop 50-75% in value so people went after hats that are never able to be unboxed again.

 

This might explain peoples' gaining interest between last year and now, buuut I recall there being similar hype to now way before the crate depression, back to 2018 is when I'd say I first saw bonzo and knifestorm described as god tier, bonzos listed for no less than 150 keys at the time iirc. This was well after the multiclass crate came out, but maybe there's some correlation there with the replacing of first gen god tiers with halloweens.

I'm mostly focusing on the lower-tier hats, as they've gone up in wake of new god tier prices, but haven't seen the same treatment from halloween enthusiasts sales-wise? And demand can't be generated off stigma alone right, buy orders going up etc. without any active circulation outside of resellers and side-grade trades then markups. Sounds conspiracy-ish, but it feels like the only thing supporting the rise of price in lower-tier hats with halloween effects, is traders buying into the stigma of them being easy to sell, and fulfilling that stigma by having another trader buy for more in hopes of reselling, in a cycle.

 

My concern comes from me being offered decent halloween hats at times, where they've repeatedly sold for much less than the current owner's price proposal, and in my skepticism decline said offer after failing to find justification for a higher price. Then sooner than later seeing that hat sell for more and more to traders only looking to resell, aka not "buyers" or "customers."

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hawaiian pizza
17 minutes ago, Brown said:

 

 

This might explain peoples' gaining interest between last year and now, buuut I recall there being similar hype to now way before the crate depression, back to 2018 is when I'd say I first saw bonzo and knifestorm described as god tier, bonzos listed for no less than 150 keys at the time iirc. This was well after the multiclass crate came out, but maybe there's some correlation there with the replacing of first gen god tiers with halloweens.

I'm mostly focusing on the lower-tier hats, as they've gone up in wake of new god tier prices, but haven't seen the same treatment from halloween enthusiasts sales-wise? And demand can't be generated off stigma alone right, buy orders going up etc. without any active circulation outside of resellers and side-grade trades then markups. Sounds conspiracy-ish, but it feels like the only thing supporting the rise of price in lower-tier hats with halloween effects, is traders buying into the stigma of them being easy to sell, and fulfilling that stigma by having another trader buy for more in hopes of reselling, in a cycle.

 

My concern comes from me being offered decent halloween hats at times, where they've repeatedly sold for much less than the current owner's price proposal, and in my skepticism decline said offer after failing to find justification for a higher price. Then sooner than later seeing that hat sell for more and more to traders only looking to resell, aka not "buyers" or "customers."

Theres one thing to consider here though. Not every haloween effect behaves like this. Only a select few of them do. For example, a Chiroptera Venenata hat may apply to our haloween "bubble" so to speak. However, effects such as Cauldron Bubbles, Flaming Lantern, Eerie Orbiting etc won't really sell as well as the effect mentioned earlier. Now of course there will be exceptions, but this rule is generally applicable for the most part.

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Norah

Just extreme overhyping. I imagine it was just a handful of people paying extremely high amounts for a Bonzo hat they really wanted, so people just assumed they could upcharge like hell on any Bonzo hats they had. Don't get me wrong, I like Bonzo enough, but I don't think it should at ALL be a god-tier. No nicer than Misty Skull and any of the Moon effects, imo.

 

But yeah, it's just people highballing their rare stuff and people eventually paying it becoming the norm. I'm sure the same thing could have happened with an effect like Flaming Lantern if a couple things went differently.

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hawaiian pizza

Here are all the Haloween effects that I find are in the core of this price bubble, meaning that these are the effects that people consistently make profit of and are really appreciated by the community in general.

 

Chiroptera Venenata

Poisoned Shadows

Something Burning This Way Comes

Hellfire

Darkblaze

Demonflame

Arcana 

Spellbound

Bonzo The All-Gnawing

Knifestorm

Harvest Moon

It's a Secret To Everybody

 

Now, the reason why I didn't include effects such as Misty Skull, Amaranthine, Cloudy Moon etc is because from my experience, these ones (depending on the hat) don't have the same potential as the ones mentioned above in terms of sellability.

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Brown
22 minutes ago, Norah said:

Just extreme overhyping. I imagine it was just a handful of people paying extremely high amounts for a Bonzo hat they really wanted, so people just assumed they could upcharge like hell on any Bonzo hats they had. Don't get me wrong, I like Bonzo enough, but I don't think it should at ALL be a god-tier. No nicer than Misty Skull and any of the Moon effects, imo.

 

But yeah, it's just people highballing their rare stuff and people eventually paying it becoming the norm. I'm sure the same thing could have happened with an effect like Flaming Lantern if a couple things went differently.

 

So that would kind of describe a bubble, I could see it being that simple, but for as long as it's lasted I don't know if that's the best description. People like the effect as a novelty, but hardly anyone is "buying (low tier)," just reselling. The demand is coming from somewhere, thin air maybe.

 

 

23 minutes ago, hawaiian pizza said:

Theres one thing to consider here though. Not every haloween effect behaves like this. Only a select few of them do. For example, a Chiroptera Venenata hat may apply to our haloween "bubble" so to speak. However, effects such as Cauldron Bubbles, Flaming Lantern, Eerie Orbiting etc won't really sell as well as the effect mentioned earlier. Now of course there will be exceptions, but this rule is generally applicable for the most part.

 

I was focusing on bonzo mainly and maybe knifestorm as the most egregious examples, but yes.

It's funny to think of the rest of the old halloween effects in the same light as bonzo and knifestorm, they more or less share similar rarity and exclusivity, but are considerably less sought after, which would sort of contradict rarity being a primary selling point for the inflated effects.

If it's not rarity and exclusivity, that would leave either looks or novelty right, in terms of determining price.

And you could argue all day whether the novelty and charm of knifestorm and bonzo are enough to hold such an inflated market

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hawaiian pizza

Its just a combination of many factors, leading up to their current state.

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Axo
3 hours ago, HaloGAMER0329 said:

This, after crate depression people saw their expensive hats drop 50-75% in value so people went after hats that are never able to be unboxed again.

Considering the old god tier halloween stuff was available as recently as 2017 means this isnt a safe bet to rely on, Valve at any time can make these items unboxable again, it wont crash the prices though, only a couple people will be sharked and people will continue marking their stuff up at 5x what they bought for

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h0wLze_
1 hour ago, hawaiian pizza said:

Here are all the Haloween effects that I find are in the core of this price bubble, meaning that these are the effects that people consistently make profit of and are really appreciated by the community in general.

 

Chiroptera Venenata

Poisoned Shadows

Something Burning This Way Comes

Hellfire

Darkblaze

Demonflame

Arcana 

Spellbound

Bonzo The All-Gnawing

Knifestorm

Harvest Moon

It's a Secret To Everybody

 

Now, the reason why I didn't include effects such as Misty Skull, Amaranthine, Cloudy Moon etc is because from my experience, these ones (depending on the hat) don't have the same potential as the ones mentioned above in terms of sellability.

I don't get it. To me Bonzo is easily the worst looking one out of all of these examples, except maybe Chiroptera. I feel it's of those things that rich traders purchase as a flex, when it really doesn't look like it's worth the money. Like $7000 shoes. When I first saw the effect I was just very surprised at it's value, that's all. Makes me think that people may tend to buy it not because of how it looks, but rather how expensive it is. 

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1nk
21 minutes ago, h0wLze_ said:

I don't get it. To me Bonzo is easily the worst looking one out of all of these examples, except maybe Chiroptera. I feel it's of those things that rich traders as a flex, when it really doesn't look like it's worth the money. Like $7000 shoes. When I first saw the effect I was just very surprised at it's value, that's all. Makes me think that people may tend to buy it not because of how it looks, but rather how expensive it is. 

It's also what people like, I for one really like Bonzo and would want one, but they are expensive as hell. If you don't like it and like other effects that may be cheaper, that's good since you can probably get them for less. 

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h0wLze_
18 minutes ago, 1nk said:

It's also what people like, I for one really like Bonzo and would want one, but they are expensive as hell. If you don't like it and like other effects that may be cheaper, that's good since you can probably get them for less. 

Yeah, guess it's just an acquired taste. 

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Jessica

It took them so long to finally realise how rare old weens are. I remember some years ago when people didn't like weens much, Now those hats are worth my left arm haha.

 

I personally never liked them much, aside Knifestorm.

 

Much rather have a themed frostbite/blizzardy storm hat, but that's my own preference.

A few years ago I offered a Knifestorm Team Captain for a Blizzardy Storm co-pilot (the TC was like 550 at the time) and the guy rejected me. I really wanted that hat at the time, but eventually got my hands on a Bliz storm Saxton, which I like much better thanks to my best friend Archimo.

 

The demand/hype around them since they became the best of best confuses me a bit though, like the worst hat and they're still getting like 400 pure from it just because of the effect.... back a few years ago people wouldn't touch them at all.

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Brother

Bonzo is the rarest effect in the game in terms of sheer numbers, there are less then 350 in existance, many of which are in scammer or private inventories.

 

Bonzo is also the largest effect in the game, fully animated with teeth, eyes and even animated barf + bones that make it look extra god-tier.

 

Everything about Bonzo, from it's extreme rarity to it's uniqueness, is really just god-tier and I can only imagine this sort of phenomena happening to an effect such as this. I have owned several Bonzo's in my day and I can astutely say there is little to no effects that match the feeling of owning one. 

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hawaiian pizza
3 hours ago, h0wLze_ said:

I don't get it. To me Bonzo is easily the worst looking one out of all of these examples, except maybe Chiroptera. I feel it's of those things that rich traders purchase as a flex, when it really doesn't look like it's worth the money. Like $7000 shoes. When I first saw the effect I was just very surprised at it's value, that's all. Makes me think that people may tend to buy it not because of how it looks, but rather how expensive it is. 

Thing is, the pricing of these effects are made through the means of communal effort, so that represents the general consensus. Individuals may not enjoy certain effects, but the majority's preferences is what defines these prices.

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HaloGAMER0329
5 hours ago, Brown said:

 

 

This might explain peoples' gaining interest between last year and now, buuut I recall there being similar hype to now way before the crate depression, back to 2018 is when I'd say I first saw bonzo and knifestorm described as god tier, bonzos listed for no less than 150 keys at the time iirc. This was well after the multiclass crate came out, but maybe there's some correlation there with the replacing of first gen god tiers with halloweens.

I'm mostly focusing on the lower-tier hats, as they've gone up in wake of new god tier prices, but haven't seen the same treatment from halloween enthusiasts sales-wise? And demand can't be generated off stigma alone right, buy orders going up etc. without any active circulation outside of resellers and side-grade trades then markups. Sounds conspiracy-ish, but it feels like the only thing supporting the rise of price in lower-tier hats with halloween effects, is traders buying into the stigma of them being easy to sell, and fulfilling that stigma by having another trader buy for more in hopes of reselling, in a cycle.

 

My concern comes from me being offered decent halloween hats at times, where they've repeatedly sold for much less than the current owner's price proposal, and in my skepticism decline said offer after failing to find justification for a higher price. Then sooner than later seeing that hat sell for more and more to traders only looking to resell, aka not "buyers" or "customers."

You say hype started around 2018, last time they were unboxable was 2017, so they started slowly getting collected after becoming limited, and the crate depression just multiplied existing demand. 

 

5 hours ago, hawaiian pizza said:

Its just a combination of many factors, leading up to their current state.

Literally this

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Brown
1 minute ago, HaloGAMER0329 said:

You say hype started around 2018, last time they were unboxable was 2017, so they started slowly getting collected after becoming limited, and the crate depression just multiplied existing demand. 

The problem is most of what could be said about their place in the economy before the hype still applies: people were already collecting, the hats were already rare, I can't attribute the entire inflation to the slight market shift of first gens.

 

 

 

Seeing no definitive answers here, also seeing no alternative to my current theories of resellers supporting the bubble. Seems like the general understanding is all but completely vague. The novelty/looks of most effects seems controversial of all things, which I would think is uncharacteristic for what is supposed to be in high demand.

 

SOMETHING is fishy

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0093

You can unbox Bonzo right now, but the effect is in a 50 dollar case.
 

Bonzo is BIG, it’s BRIGHT and it’s NOTICABLE. It’s flashy, it gets eyes. It’s prob my fav effect you could get.

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1nk
10 minutes ago, 0093 said:

You can unbox Bonzo right now, but the effect is in a 50 dollar case.
 

Bonzo is BIG, it’s BRIGHT and it’s NOTICABLE. It’s flashy, it gets eyes. It’s prob my fav effect you could get.

What crate is it? I didn't think it was still able to be unboxed. Is it one of the salvaged type crates?

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0093
5 minutes ago, 1nk said:

What crate is it? I didn't think it was still able to be unboxed. Is it one of the salvaged type crates?

Unlocked Creepy Cosmetic Crates

 

Its the rarest effect from those crates so even if you did get an unusual it’s most likely not going to be Bonzo.

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