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Opinion | will key price ever go back to 56 refs price range?


Arelelele

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Hello there,
As the title mentions, Its a simple question regarding the current situation about the TF2 Traiding world.
Lately, The price of key dropped to 43.66 - which is big deal because it used to be around 56 for a while...
I would be more than happy to hear your opinion about wheter it would go back to 56 or around that? and when(estimated time)

(I am aware that the answers will be pure guesses, this will affect near future trades of mine, therefore it is a bit important for me) ! :)
Thanks for reading!

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3 hours ago, hawaiian pizza said:

honestly, who cares about ref price these days... low tier trading is overtly saturated anyways.

I am trader with 250 keys pure +-
I have got loads of taunts, and unusuals right now... (this is why i dropped to 150 keys).

From this thread i came to conclusion that i better keep those items and sell when key be over 56 due the fact that some taunts are 1.7, 3.6, 2.7 forexa ple
and the 0.7 key is actaully nice amount, the fact that you underestimate refs is kinda sad.

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The whole reason keys are losing value in ref is because there's an oversaturation of keys in the market, right? Meanwhile, there have been a few suggestions lately to increase the value of refined to being worth $0.05 instead of $0.04, though those suggestions have so far failed. What dictates whether the value of ref should increase to offset a change in the amount of ref that a key is worth? I guess I'm asking y'all what would make the most sense to see happen to the price of ref in the coming years assuming we aren't given something to sink refined metal into. Kinda new to this stuff so I'd appreciate some input.  

 

Meanwhile, what's stopping keys from just continuing to drop indefinitely in the amount of refined metal they're worth? What in the first place would cause the amount of refined a key is worth to stop decreasing and instead start increasing again? 

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16 hours ago, Vrakos Anthrakir said:

sure, as long as no effective metal sink is introduced

I think the Halloween gargoyle is acting as a sink right now and we are seeing the downward fluctuation of key:ref ratio because Halloween is near. We've maybe found our price equilibrium at 40-55 ref which is kinda big but for a yearly fluctuation I think it's alright. Ofc my personal theory and it's probably wrong.

 

8 hours ago, Shoee said:

I predict it will go back to 56 ref in exactly 149 days 20 hours 45 minutes and 29 seconds, take my word for it.

!remindme 149 days

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29 minutes ago, FP jh34ghu43gu said:

I think the Halloween gargoyle is acting as a sink right now and we are seeing the downward fluctuation of key:ref ratio because Halloween is near. We've maybe found our price equilibrium at 40-55 ref which is kinda big but for a yearly fluctuation I think it's alright. Ofc my personal theory and it's probably wrong.

 

!remindme 149 days

huh?  what does the soul gargoyle have to do with metal?  and you can't even transmute with it right now...

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You can transmute craft hats, during halloween craft hat prices go up enough and there's not enough supply to where it's worth crafting hats if you're gonna try to transmute for something.

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