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Why are keys dropping in ref price?


Sylvan

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ref (and all metal)  is steadily becoming less valuable as their is an ever increasing supply due to weapon drops and weapon drop farming. So the overall trend of key price in the unit of ref is that keys are constantly requiring more ref to purchase them. (because each individual ref is constantly depreciating in value). Keys $ value is pretty consistent, lows of $1.70 and highs of $2.00. whereas keys used to trade for a few ref, and now its over 50 ref for 1 key.

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since ref is increasing in quantity, it loses its price. to make up for the decrease in value of ref, keys require more ref to make up for the lower price in ref.

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2 minutes ago, thE siLEncE said:

Did anyone actually read the post? 

His question doesn't even make sense, as keys haven't suddenly dropped in ref price, ref price for keys is a consistent increase. 

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lmao you guys have bad reading comprehension then if you don't understand what he is asking. Keys have dropped from 56 ref to 51 ref in the span of a week. As for why the keys have dropped, I'm not entirely sure but I've noticed that it could be in relation to the downward trend on key prices on marketplace.tf

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From what I can see, there's an apparent spike of 50K+ new keys at the start of the month;

At Jul 29th, we have 1.13M, then we jump to about 1.14M on the 30th, a simple 8K increase.
For some reason, near the start of the month/Jul 31st, we hit 1.18M, essentially 40K Keys out of seemingly no where, with no reason as to why they'd exist, since as far as I know, crates are still arguably not worth unboxing.

Unless Backpack wasn't counting a shit ton of keys, one or many people just decided to purchase a ton for maybe a major trade, or for some other unknown reason. And since then, we're now at  1.25M; If you compared this spike to the rest of the year (That is accurately being counted, so Feb 22nd~ Onward), the only other "spike" would be Aug 16th to Aug 25th~, but that's seemingly not as drastic as this.

I assume keys will keep dropping for a bit, or stay roughly at 50, but if people are fed up, which I believe some/most should be, they'll want to further see prices decrease so they can do 2 main things

1: Use less inventory space to buy a single key

2: Can buy a keys for cheaper, and get into unusual trading sooner.


Unless I've missed something, or unless a bunch of users started to return and make their key stockpile known, I'm unsure as to why such a spike has happened, but if it means a flood of keys to lower the prices, then I don't mind it.

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34 minutes ago, SubZeroDestruction said:

From what I can see, there's an apparent spike of 50K+ new keys at the start of the month;

At Jul 29th, we have 1.13M, then we jump to about 1.14M on the 30th, a simple 8K increase.
For some reason, near the start of the month/Jul 31st, we hit 1.18M, essentially 40K Keys out of seemingly no where, with no reason as to why they'd exist, since as far as I know, crates are still arguably not worth unboxing.

Unless Backpack wasn't counting a shit ton of keys, one or many people just decided to purchase a ton for maybe a major trade, or for some other unknown reason. And since then, we're now at  1.25M; If you compared this spike to the rest of the year (That is accurately being counted, so Feb 22nd~ Onward), the only other "spike" would be Aug 16th to Aug 25th~, but that's seemingly not as drastic as this.

I assume keys will keep dropping for a bit, or stay roughly at 50, but if people are fed up, which I believe some/most should be, they'll want to further see prices decrease so they can do 2 main things

1: Use less inventory space to buy a single key

2: Can buy a keys for cheaper, and get into unusual trading sooner.


Unless I've missed something, or unless a bunch of users started to return and make their key stockpile known, I'm unsure as to why such a spike has happened, but if it means a flood of keys to lower the prices, then I don't mind it.

just gotta get it down to that golden standard of 1 backpack slot per key when buying with ref

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1 hour ago, Master of the Hellish Yard said:

lmao you guys have bad reading comprehension then if you don't understand what he is asking. Keys have dropped from 56 ref to 51 ref in the span of a week. As for why the keys have dropped, I'm not entirely sure but I've noticed that it could be in relation to the downward trend on key prices on marketplace.tf

Reminds me of when the bottom fell out of the price of keys from like 48 ref to 27, they had absolutely no bottom for a while, it seems they have a temporary bottom now but well see in a days if it goes too. The major trading sites are still massivley overstocked on keys

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last suggestion someone made for keys, they dropped faster than the suggestion could be accepted so it was already out of date. they're already around 50 ref on scrap and classifieds.

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Keys are essentially a market bubble. When people see other people and bots buying and selling below market price, they get nervous and sell their keys for lower to get rid of them. It will go back up eventually because of no metal sink.

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I think we’re in a cashing out season where more people are effectively “getting out” compared to “getting in”  

 

The amount of keys haven’t changed, but there is less demand so prices are dropping. The ref price is naturally reflecting this change in the market as it is also currency.
 

Everything is simply worth a little bit less than it was a week ago. Except buds. People are REALLY buying into nothing there. 

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A large spike in keys makes me worried - since CSGO removed keys, traders (and scammers) could be using TF2 keys as a rudimentary form of currency, and we know what happened when they tried to do that in Dota 2... That large spike could be indicative of one or multiple people purchasing extremely large sums of keys in hopes that their price may rise significantly if Mann Co Store Key purchases become untradeable. Tradeable CSGO keys cost 300% what they did before. 

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