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Casimir

What Will the TF2 Community do About The Economy Gradually Getting Worse?

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Diamond jozu

For one way,do not use steam trading as your source of income or as a job and you're probably fine

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mikey boi
14 hours ago, Snailiad said:

like he said in the video, a metal sink has to be created in order to stop inflation

 

The question has to be asked, would refined being worth more / a refined sink being introduced actually do anything to help the economy?

 

Think of it this way. Right now, it's nearly impossible to trade at the <1 key value range because bots totally dominate that market and will buy/sell for a 1 or 2 scrap difference on just about every item you'll find below a key. If keys were worth 8 refined each, then you're still only going to get 1 scrap of profit per sale, and it's still going to take you a lot of effort to do so because of the competition presented by bots coupled with the fact that most people will prefer to just buy from a bot and get their item instantly rather than waiting anywhere from a minute to many hours for an actual person to respond to a trade offer. Yes, it does mean that you're getting 5 or 6 times the effective USD value profit by having lower key prices, but you're still talking weeks or months of spending many hours a day trading just to get some trades that give you that one scrap of profit.

 

Past that, items will just adjust their refined value based on the refined-to-key ratios. Say again that keys are 8 refined. A cosmetic that costs 30 refined now will go down to ~4 refined because the USD value of the item will likely remain the same, since on the cash side of trading, refined gaining value wouldn't suddenly cause cosmetics to gain value when their price on, say, Marketplace is always based on the price of the keys, not the price of the refined.

 

"But lower refined to key ratios means that players can get more USD value out of random weapon drops and thus build up their value better!" - You're still only talking 0.44-0.66 refined per week. If it was 8 refined to a key, and keys are $2.00 USD, then that's only about $0.14 per week you're getting. Even for a kid that doesn't have access to money of their own, doing a few extra chores around the house to earn a few bucks from Mom or Dad will be a vastly better way to spend your time to get some keys or refined to trade with. It's still "free money", but you can make a Youtube channel and post Big Chungus memes that take 5 minutes to make and upload and get 500 views each and make more money off Youtube's ad revenue in the same time.

 

"Scrapbanking can be viable again!" - If you actually think that then you're just silly.

 

"Lower refined to key ratios will make it easier for new traders to start!" - See all of the above. You're still having to invest the same amount of money to get into trading for real, and you're still talking weeks of idling in TF2 to get enough pure from drops to start trading anything of value... against an army of bots that will undercut you at every turn.

 

Not only that, but the "we need a metal sink" argument is also just not logical. Say they do add something to burn refined metal. There's over 7 million refined in existence according to backpack.tf. Let's say only 1 million of that is in regular circulation. You have one of four things that will happen:

  1. People will buy Refined metal in huge bulk to put lots of refined into the new "refined sink", driving up prices, which will cause more of the trades of refined to be traders that are buying it up to resell for higher due to a large increase in demand, which will further artificially inflate prices.
  2. The items or outputs of the refined sink will end up being obtained in massive quantities. Say it's 1 in 50 to get whatever it is that you want from it, and it costs 4 refined to attempt the craft. That's about 200 refined per craft, and if say 800K refined is burned, then that's ~4,000 of that item that will be created. This item or type of item will then flood the market because it's something that you can gamble on to potentially make a profit on, causing its availability to be high and prices to get low due to the amount being sold, which will lead to refined falling in value again as less people want to craft for these items. If you think that that won't happen, consider that the vast majority of people unboxing crates during Halloween are doing so with the sole goal of getting a new Halloween hat to sell for a profit, not to keep it.
  3. The items you can craft from the refined sink will be extremely common to get from the refined sink, causing it to be widely available and therefore purchaseable for a low price, or not take much refined to actually obtain via the craft itself, meaning that there actually isn't a huge demand for refined after the first week or so of the refined sink being introduced.
  4. The items have an extremely low chance of being obtained, like 1-in-500 or something. Thus, there's very little to gain by trying since the changes are so ridiculously low to obtain anything, meaning that the incentive to put huge sums of refined into the refined sink will be for nothing a lot of the time.

 

Of course, that assumes the refined sink is something that will give an item. It could give a cool badge upgrade, but nobody would give a shit. It could give a chance for an unusual, but then that'd just fuck over the unusual market even more than the Crate Depression did. Anything it gives you could be untradable, but then the drive to gamble your refined away for potential profits is not there, thus the majority of the people with the money and backpack value to do the bulk of the refined burning wouldn't be as interested in the refined sink, making it much less impactful on the price of refined.

 

Even then, once the refined sink has run its course and the things obtainable from it either lose their shine or become easy to obtain for cheap on the market, people will stop buying refined for it, and thus refined will go back down in value.

 

So again I ask the question, would a refined sink do anything meaningful to the TF2 economy? My answer is no, it'd be a neat fun little thing, but it ultimately wouldn't change much or cause any tangible increase in active traders.

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HaloGAMER0329
3 hours ago, SubZeroDestruction said:


I have nothing against users accepting offers that match their b/o? I (seemingly) have an issue with the undercutting/overcutting scripts, and or in the case of new users, the fact that they're generally unable to obtain items that will give them a decent profit margin that's more than a scrap in most cases, as unless they also find a new user/someone not using BP.tf, they'll almost always be unable to buy items for below bot-buy orders, or for below bot-sellers.
Not sure where I brought up an entry barrier in terms of getting a bot, but I'd prefer people not being "forced" in a sense, to have to get a bot to even participate/have a chance at trading.

well you dont need to get a bot to trade and even if you wanted one its 100% free and comes with autopricing and everything from tf2 automatic. But ive been trading for 6+ years now, I didnt use a bot until 3 years ago and I never use auto price because I always want to control my prices. Anyone who wants to trade seriously can, I started with only 10 keys I bought for $20. If you dont even have that to start with I mean why would you even be trading for profit? To be making a penny an hour? People in the third world make more than that. Too many people thinking they can go from a scrap to unusual, you gotta put something in to get something out.

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Beaser

Idk man maybe learn the basics of economics before you make such a bold and pointless statement

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Chuck

High ref to key ratio is kinda inconvenient for someone who does a lot of trades because metal simply take too much space now, I wish valve increased max backpack capacity (which would require updating something other than localisation files, making it pretty much impossible). That said it has nothing to do with ruining the economy.

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Snailiad
6 hours ago, Bewitched said:

It's really working fine for me. Is it only me or someone else too?

personally i'm not a fan of having to pay with more than a backpack slot just to buy a single key

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lewak

im propably wrong cuz im baD TRADER anyways check this idea :D

i think we just should change currency - dont use refs, just use hats! Its possible to combine 3 refs to make hat, wont take half of your backpack to buy few keys and you can even wear them :D

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DanielDee
15 hours ago, Vrakos Anthrakir said:

none of this talk is new..

same shit different day.

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Shovel the 3rd

Notice how everyone who says that nothings wrong with trading has an expensive bp

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Chuck
20 minutes ago, Shovel the 3rd said:

Notice how everyone who says that nothings wrong with trading has an expensive bp

Is that supposed to make their point invalid? I'd think otherwise, if they have a bank there is more chance that they're somewhat decent at trading and know what they're talking about, compared to a couple of bucks bp owners. You, for example, aren't even good at scamming according to your trust, let alone trading.

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Karatat
On 7/30/2020 at 8:16 AM, Casimir said:

With The Rising Prices Of Keys And The Economy Falling Out Of Control, What Is The Community Going To Do About This??? 
I Would Like To Hear Ideas That Are Proposed.
A Great Ted X Video Was Made On The Economy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-I6Qn56QWI&t=186s

isnt that video from like 4 years ago?????

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creepio

Take the next community-driven update with tiered items and make it so refined metal can be used to obtain the rewards. The more refined you invest, they better odds you have of finding higher tier items. Of course, even small investors have a longshot. 

 

Use refined metal in place of keys. Making it temporary will keep the rewards from becoming worthless in the future.

 

Of course, that's an update without unique keys bringing in a bunch of money through the store.. so it will never happen. 

 

 

 

 

 

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