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LaughingLollipop

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just price sugg event things

dropping a bunch of outdated lowtiers that no one else had incentive to sugg anyway haha

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I mean... feel free to go pick some other 500 suggestion period in the history and report back

 

From a cursory look things are pretty similar in the prior weeks/months

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This is expected tho no? People unbox unusuals everyday and sellers are always trying to undercut each other. Only things that are gonna really gonna be rising is rare hats/effects and miscs

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Makes sense, Gens 1-3 are the majority of Unusuals and on the most part they've been doing nothing but lose value for the last year. Besides, it's generally a good thing. Better for the economy to have more people dealing in what are now less valuable items, than a handful of people holding onto them and overcharging like crazy. **subtle cough** the Unusual Misc market, **subtle cough** **subtle cough**.

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Lol...

 

the price event was for gen1-3, which were all overpriced hats that hadn’t been updated for over six months...of course most of them were going to drop.

 

take a data set that isn’t skewed by external events that you conveniently forget and you might have a less extreme claim 

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A few months ago I did an analysis of this very topic, and graphed the average unusual price over time. These are the results (blue line)

 

unuprice.PNG.d2b9d76fb594586ca983c0217c8cc994.PNG

 

As you can see, the average price has been going down steadily since mid-2016. The ridge in 2016 is likely due to hats going all-class, where the steep climb is due to 3rd gens getting priced really high, and then subsequently coming down.

 

A few things about the methodology:

- The data is weighted by number in existence in order to account for rarity; otherwise the average price actually goes up because of the rise in Halloweens like Bonzo and Spellbound and the bias towards rare expensive hats receiving more price updates.

- Unfortunately there was no data on historic number of existence going back, so the data assumes that the minute the hat got priced the number in existence was equal to the current number. Because of this, the 3rd-gen spike in 2013-2014 and the 2016 peak are likely overblown, as there were far less of those hats in existence then as opposed to now due to mass--unboxing of 3rd gens and the all-class crate.

 

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4 hours ago, Xergoyf said:

A few months ago I did an analysis of this very topic, and graphed the average unusual price over time. These are the results (blue line)

 

unuprice.PNG.d2b9d76fb594586ca983c0217c8cc994.PNG

 

As you can see, the average price has been going down steadily since mid-2016. The ridge in 2016 is likely due to hats going all-class, where the steep climb is due to 3rd gens getting priced really high, and then subsequently coming down.

 

A few things about the methodology:

- The data is weighted by number in existence in order to account for rarity; otherwise the average price actually goes up because of the rise in Halloweens like Bonzo and Spellbound and the bias towards rare expensive hats receiving more price updates.

- Unfortunately there was no data on historic number of existence going back, so the data assumes that the minute the hat got priced the number in existence was equal to the current number. Because of this, the 3rd-gen spike in 2013-2014 and the 2016 peak are likely overblown, as there were far less of those hats in existence then as opposed to now due to mass--unboxing of 3rd gens and the all-class crate.

 

 

Nice data.

 

Frankly its pretty amazing an average unusual is still 40 keys, there's gotta be thousands in the sub ten key arena.

 

Charting an (unweighted by quantity) median price would be interesting (I don't think it would bounce as much, but it might see spiking behavior a couple months after effect releases with new hats getting priced)

 

 

 

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