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Post cratedepression price guides?


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Hello guys and girls, 

I quit tf2 trading for a few years but still played. I used to trade when outpost was up then i cashed out. I read about the crate depression and everything but i'm cobfused about the way prices are estimated now. I see an unusual sold for 300$ on mp.tf, 100 keys on bp.tf or vice versa and it has buyouts of 60$. Are buyoffers the new quickbuys from back in the day? 

Honestly i want to buy an allclass low/mid tier one to wear not to make profit but i would also like to know that i don't loose or at least don't loose too much when/if i want to cash out again. 

For instance a sunbeams/plasma executioner seems reasonable compared to the prices i remember from back in the day but i don't want to pay 300$ and then have to sell it for 60.

Many thanks to anyone who takes the time to answear. It's for a good cause i guess, cause i just want a hat to wear not to profit. Also any examples would be absolutely helpful 

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sunbeams executioner sold for $150 recently, which is around 85 keys, so i wouldn't recommend buying for $299, even buying keys and the buying one for 109 keys would be cheaper.

i pretty sure for the vivid one u can pick up one at 60 keys, or around $100. 

crate depression made the 3rd gen and 1st gen effects to crash, but 3rd gens got affected more than 1st gens.

high tier trading wasn't affected much, rare effects such as halloweens got hyped up, because being a rarity, and u can't even get a bonzo under 150 keys

low tier trading are basically = buying close to buy orders and quickselling it for a quick profit for around 1-2 keys

mid tiers are the same most likely, just a lot of 3rd gens dropped heavily. So if u want a fancy shiny effect i would suggest to pick up a disco beat down one, or a miami nights one.

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all-classes in general have been declining ever since the release of the multi-class keyless crate, as many people would go to unbox god-tiers from that, making them incredibly common. the crate depression had little effect on 1st gens realistically. you'll usually only see 1 or 2 new 1st gen all-classes per hat affected by the unbox glitch. 


using the sunbeams executioner as an example:

2 existed prior to the multi-class crate's release

15 have been unboxed since the crate's release (3 on SCM), that's excluding the ones unboxed from the unbox glitch

(at least) 3 were unboxed from the crate glitch. most likely more, but those would've been refunded, probably. none of those were unlocked from their backpacks

before the multi-class crate's release, the executioner was priced at 1150 keys. it is now priced at 130, and is likely to go much lower given the marketplace sale provided above.


so basically, as long as a hat keeps getting unboxed, it's gonna keep declining in price.

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