Is there an actual thought process behind why keys are constantly ascending in price?

[Adabat]

I don't trade as much as I used to, and I'm not gonna write an essay of how "damn I miss the days when keys were 10 ref" shit. I just want to know if there's any reason why they constantly rise just because a few people choose to quickbuy them for much higher than what they're priced at. Because of those people it screws over people who just have items in their backpack as those items diminish in value because keys are much higher, making ref worth less, and it just ascends those who have keys's backpacks. Is there any actual reason why this is happening from an economical standpoint (perhaps a cycle)? Or is this just, let me get a shit ton of keys and witness or trade some for really high so I can sell all my keys for that much and gain a profit easy. I've seen some people say it's because there's item drops from people going premium everyday, but I really don't think that's valid. An weapon or even hat drop is not worth a fragment of a key, and they're not continuous drops you get every day. They will never equate to a key, not even in a year where you get 5 lucky hat drops.

 

Or maybe I just don't know shit and I accept that. But if that's the case then what am I missing out on here? It just looks like it's for personal gain at the expense of others' backpack values to me, but maybe there's more to it than just that.

[fgsfds]

Keys still aren't worth enough in ref for their price. The price on mp.tf fluctuates between 1.7 to 1.8 dollars, and the current key price reflects that. If keys remained 2.33 ref to this day, that would mean that one refined metal would be worth 75 cents, which would be laughably impossible even back then. People have long realized how worthless ref is compared to keys, and the demand for ref has dropped while supply has grown dramatically. This is just the market trying to reach equilibrium. Based on the 1.7 to 1.8 dollar figure on mp.tf, I don't think keys will be getting much higher than this. Most serious traders will use mp.tf over steam because of the cost reduction and lack of trade lock, so the price of ref will be directed tied to that price range. With ref becoming in more and more supply, I'm thinking 3 cents will be the price of ref soon for a while, and keys will probably hover around the 60 ref mark.

[Adabat]

5 minutes ago, fgsfds said:

Keys still aren't worth enough in ref for their price. The price on mp.tf fluctuates between 1.7 to 1.8 dollars, and the current key price reflects that. If keys remained 2.33 ref to this day, that would mean that one refined metal would be worth 75 cents, which would be laughably impossible even back then. People have long realized how worthless ref is compared to keys, and the demand for ref has dropped while supply has grown dramatically. This is just the market trying to reach equilibrium. Based on the 1.7 to 1.8 dollar figure on mp.tf, I don't think keys will be getting much higher than this. Most serious traders will use mp.tf over steam because of the cost reduction and lack of trade lock, so the price of ref will be directed tied to that price range. With ref becoming in more and more supply, I'm thinking 3 cents will be the price of ref soon for a while, and keys will probably hover around the 60 ref mark.

Aren't most people qsing on marketplace though? Which could steadily make the average lower by time?

[Adolf Storms]

1 hour ago, Adabat said:

I don't trade as much as I used to, and I'm not gonna write an essay of how "damn I miss the days when keys were 10 ref" shit. I just want to know if there's any reason why they constantly rise just because a few people choose to quickbuy them for much higher than what they're priced at. Because of those people it screws over people who just have items in their backpack as those items diminish in value because keys are much higher, making ref worth less, and it just ascends those who have keys's backpacks. Is there any actual reason why this is happening from an economical standpoint (perhaps a cycle)? Or is this just, let me get a shit ton of keys and witness or trade some for really high so I can sell all my keys for that much and gain a profit easy. I've seen some people say it's because there's item drops from people going premium everyday, but I really don't think that's valid. An weapon or even hat drop is not worth a fragment of a key, and they're not continuous drops you get every day. They will never equate to a key, not even in a year where you get 5 lucky hat drops.

 

Or maybe I just don't know shit and I accept that. But if that's the case then what am I missing out on here? It just looks like it's for personal gain at the expense of others' backpack values to me, but maybe there's more to it than just that.

 

oversimplification incoming... with the trade system being monopolised by trading bots that set their price off of recommendations generated by price-fixers and other automated inventory snoopers, it's easy to fluctuate pricing to ensure the bots make money.  

[SubZeroDestruction]

As Adolf and fg said, it's basically a mix of ref being worthless (At least in regards to cash value), and bot.tf basically taking over every backpack page aside from unusuals/high value/very unique items.

 

And anyone can argue how bots are good for bp or how they aren't an issue, but if you honestly compare Bp before bots became as rampant as they are up till now, you can arguably see how much better the site was for everyone, especially low tier traders, since they could actually attempt to make profit & negotiate with other users, rather then be stuck to having to either sell at a loss if they bought high, or compete for who knows how long against a bot to sell their item.

(And obviously people still had to compete before bots, but back then you could still negotiate with someone for item overpay or the such, where as bots are only metal/keys.)

 

Or maybe I'm just crazy and should stop remembering how the site and trading was during 2014-2016~

[XenSakura]

4 hours ago, Adolf Storms said:

 

oversimplification incoming... with the trade system being monopolised by trading bots that set their price off of recommendations generated by price-fixers and other automated inventory snoopers, it's easy to fluctuate pricing to ensure the bots make money.  

time for valve to thanos snap trading bots

 

 

 

this is an obvious joke for anyone who is about to get triggered at this

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

6 hours ago, Adabat said:

Aren't most people qsing on marketplace though? Which could steadily make the average lower by time?

Keys have such a high volume on marketplace that the amount of people QS will not dent the price as there are usually more people who want maximum profit in a reasonable time frame. I would say look at the price graph but keys always dip in price in December so it's not the best example (I wish they allowed for larger time frames on their price graphs like steam). This is because during the winter sale there are more people who want to quick sell for some easy cash than those people who want maximum profit so a price dip does occur but it rebounds by mid January.

 

 

And to answer the title of the post I'm going to paste my last reply to a "why keys go up" thread

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68952-key-prices/?tab=comments#comment-612464

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68515-keys-are-now-3988-40-ref-ok-then/?tab=comments#comment-610407

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69321-alright-wtf-with-the-crazy-increase-keys-are-going-through-rn/?do=findComment&comment=614110

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68932-tf2-key-price/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/61607-a-dying-economy/?tab=comments#comment-583501

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66016-keys-vs-ref/?do=findComment&comment=598905

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66812-lower-the-key-price/?do=findComment&comment=602139

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/56493-are-bots-inflating-the-value-of-keys/?do=findComment&comment=559193

If you don't want to click on those - ref goes down not keys. Tf2 is a $$$ based economy, not a ref one, that uses keys as ~$2 bills. (I know it's closer to $1.75 bills but those don't exist). Ref goes down because it's infinite and doesn't have a reliable sink.

[Adolf Storms]

8 hours ago, Mew2! said:

this is an obvious joke for anyone who is about to get triggered at this

 

more like tongue-in-cheek. not as much of a joke as it used 2 b