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President Trump Impeached: Thoughts on upcoming election cycle


HarryG
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https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/impeachment-inquiry-12-18-2019/index.html

 

President Trump's impeachment was recently announced. I couldn't help but notice the similarities in terms of former President Clinton's impeachment (and to an extent, President Johnson's impeachment as well) and how party lines largely determined the outcome (a Republican-held Senate is likely to acquit the President on all charges). Do you think this will impact the upcoming election cycle in terms of the likelihood that President Trump wins/loses? Discuss below 

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If the Republicans were really farsighted, they would vote him out immediately.

 

Trump is likely to lose the election, but Pence with a good economy and being compared to Trump would be very likely to win.

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Trump is literally polling ahead of Democratic leaders, I have no idea why he wouldn't be re-elected, and the impeachment is just going to help him get re-elected, as if anything is going to happen 🤷‍♂️

 

When The House gets a republican majority next year (maybe?) they'll most likely clear him off all charges aswell.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Flamadin said:

If the Republicans were really farsighted, they would vote him out immediately.

 

Trump is likely to lose the election, but Pence with a good economy and being compared to Trump would be very likely to win.

In what situation do you see Trump losing the election but Pence assuming the presidency? Do you think Pence will run against Trump? 

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1 hour ago, HarryG said:

In what situation do you see Trump losing the election but Pence assuming the presidency? Do you think Pence will run against Trump? 

 

Pretty sure he's referring to the hypothetical scenario where Trump is removed from office and Pence would assume presidential duties. He never said anything about running against Trump dude.

 

As for the actual question, I don't see Trump being removed from office. Hasn't happened in the past and unlikely to happen now. I don't think there's much discussion to be had in regards to this as the country is pretty partisan and members of both parties will vote along party lines. As far as the general election is concerned, the general American public is pretty stupid and lacks basic reading comprehension so it's probably safe to assume any negative impact of Trump getting impeached is negligible. Trump's base is pretty staunch because they don't trust news sites and lack reading comprehension so his support will still be there too.

 

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5 keys says because of this, in 2020 dem voter turnout is lower due to people going "heh rip drumpfy I don't even need to vote this year he can't win." And rep voter turnout smashes all records and ensures Trump the win because Republicans are gonna be pissed that the House majority party won a vote that only needs a simple majority.

 

The Senate needs a 2/3rds majority to actually boot Trump from office or take this any further, and if the House vote was anything to go by (literally only 1 representative voted against their party and he was a dem, all Republicans voted no.), it's got as much chance of happening as California going red in the electorate.

 

Either way the only Democrat candidate that's even going to be competitive is Bernie and so far the Dem party is backatitagain with pushing old party staples like Joe Biden over him. They really don't want Bernie Sanders do they? (I don't either, I really don't need a +25% income tax increase. But he's still got a better chance than Biden or Warren.)

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I doubt it'll have any impact. The Republicans will never turn against him, and the Democrats already hated him. 

 

That being said, I saw a news story about an Evangelical newspaper that turned against him. The Evangelicals are a huge part of his base, so if that fortress starts to come down things could get interesting. I don't think it'll matter though, the Republican senators won't vote to convict him even if their constituents want them to.

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Republicans have extremely low odds of reclaiming control of the house. Trends show an increasing amount of liberal voters turning out to vote since the 2018 midterms.

 

According to RCP, President Trump is behind all major candidates both nationally and in a majority of swing states. The Republicans' worst case scenario is Joe Biden obtaining the nomination, and best case scenario is essentially anyone else. Democrats need to nominate a moderate to win back voters. Anyone in the realm of Elizabeth Warren and/or Bernie Sanders is unfortunately for them out of the question.

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I think a far left candidate would either energize a huge segment of democratic voters, or alienate independents and be a disaster. The reverse goes for if a moderate is nominated. I don't know which outcome would be more likely though in either case.

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16 hours ago, Sniper Noob said:

I think a far left candidate would either energize a huge segment of democratic voters, or alienate independents and be a disaster. The reverse goes for if a moderate is nominated. I don't know which outcome would be more likely though in either case.

 

When Clinton was the nominee back in 2016 she had no issue of retaining progressive vote despite being a moderate.

 

Even so, while progressives are becoming an increasing voting block, most of them will no doubt vote Democrat in the general regardless. Moderates are the biggest voting block anyway, which is why states that are filled with them, such as Iowa or New Hampshire are so crucial to win. A far left candidate would alienate more voters than they would actually gain.

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3 hours ago, Bigg said:

 

When Clinton was the nominee back in 2016 she had no issue of retaining progressive vote despite being a moderate.

 

Even so, while progressives are becoming an increasing voting block, most of them will no doubt vote Democrat in the general regardless. Moderates are the biggest voting block anyway, which is why states that are filled with them, such as Iowa or New Hampshire are so crucial to win. A far left candidate would alienate more voters than they would actually gain.

 

My rebuttal to that would be the Bernie or Bust and Jill Stein people we saw in '16. Unclear whether they learned their lesson from last time.

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5 hours ago, Sniper Noob said:

 

My rebuttal to that would be the Bernie or Bust and Jill Stein people we saw in '16. Unclear whether they learned their lesson from last time.


Majority of Bernie or bust voters, what I call “Bernie Bros” still voted for Hillary. Neither they nor Jill Stein voters cut into Hillary’s numbers enough to do damage. 
 

Even so, Hillary still won the popular vote besides that.

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On 12/24/2019 at 12:07 AM, Bigg said:


Majority of Bernie or bust voters, what I call “Bernie Bros” still voted for Hillary. Neither they nor Jill Stein voters cut into Hillary’s numbers enough to do damage. 
 

Even so, Hillary still won the popular vote besides that.

 

Not sure how true that is, would be interested to see some actual numbers.

 

The popular vote doesn't matter though. A lot of states were very close, I'm not sure whether the Bernie or Bust crowd had enough people sitting up to swing those states, but either way I think the message still stands: better off with 80% of what you want than 0%.

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  • 1 month later...
On 12/18/2019 at 8:17 PM, HarryG said:

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/impeachment-inquiry-12-18-2019/index.html

 

President Trump's impeachment was recently announced. I couldn't help but notice the similarities in terms of former President Clinton's impeachment (and to an extent, President Johnson's impeachment as well) and how party lines largely determined the outcome (a Republican-held Senate is likely to acquit the President on all charges). Do you think this will impact the upcoming election cycle in terms of the likelihood that President Trump wins/loses? Discuss below 

Republicans hated Bill Clinton for many reasons and when Bill was having hard time and being embarrassed on admitting that he was having an affair with secretary, once he finally admitted then Republicans decided that it was impeachable offense for lying towards to people but you can't blame him for being too embarrassed and trying to avoid but he just finally come out clear and clean to himself and then the next step that Republicans decided to started on impeaching process against Clinton and it went successful because of Clinton "lied" for not having an affair.

On 12/29/2019 at 8:40 PM, Sniper Noob said:

 

Not sure how true that is, would be interested to see some actual numbers.

 

The popular vote doesn't matter though. A lot of states were very close, I'm not sure whether the Bernie or Bust crowd had enough people sitting up to swing those states, but either way I think the message still stands: better off with 80% of what you want than 0%.

Electoral vote exists and doesn't matter if popular votes wins or not, Electoral votes only what matters and Trump may have more electoral votes than Hillary but who knows for sure.

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On 2/1/2020 at 12:41 AM, bwinb1 said:

Republicans hated Bill Clinton for many reasons and when Bill was having hard time and being embarrassed on admitting that he was having an affair with secretary, once he finally admitted then Republicans decided that it was impeachable offense for lying towards to people but you can't blame him for being too embarrassed and trying to avoid but he just finally come out clear and clean to himself and then the next step that Republicans decided to started on impeaching process against Clinton and it went successful because of Clinton "lied" for not having an affair.

Electoral vote exists and doesn't matter if popular votes wins or not, Electoral votes only what matters and Trump may have more electoral votes than Hillary but who knows for sure.

Republicans did not "decide" it was an impeachable offense to lie: perjury has been a crime for a long time before that impeachment. It was not an arbitrary decision they made to decide whether or not it was a crime.

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  • 1 year later...

What was he impeached for this time? Going for a walk? This is nonsese, Y'all remember when Obama drone striked American citizens? Wasn't impeached for that lmao

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1 hour ago, Excentric said:

What was he impeached for this time? Going for a walk? This is nonsese, Y'all remember when Obama drone striked American citizens? Wasn't impeached for that lmao

orange man bad

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