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HarryG

President Trump Impeached: Thoughts on upcoming election cycle

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HarryG

https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/impeachment-inquiry-12-18-2019/index.html

 

President Trump's impeachment was recently announced. I couldn't help but notice the similarities in terms of former President Clinton's impeachment (and to an extent, President Johnson's impeachment as well) and how party lines largely determined the outcome (a Republican-held Senate is likely to acquit the President on all charges). Do you think this will impact the upcoming election cycle in terms of the likelihood that President Trump wins/loses? Discuss below 

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Flamadin

If the Republicans were really farsighted, they would vote him out immediately.

 

Trump is likely to lose the election, but Pence with a good economy and being compared to Trump would be very likely to win.

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TheProcave

Trump is literally polling ahead of Democratic leaders, I have no idea why he wouldn't be re-elected, and the impeachment is just going to help him get re-elected, as if anything is going to happen 🤷‍♂️

 

When The House gets a republican majority next year (maybe?) they'll most likely clear him off all charges aswell.

 

 

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HarryG
4 hours ago, Flamadin said:

If the Republicans were really farsighted, they would vote him out immediately.

 

Trump is likely to lose the election, but Pence with a good economy and being compared to Trump would be very likely to win.

In what situation do you see Trump losing the election but Pence assuming the presidency? Do you think Pence will run against Trump? 

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Master of the Hellish Yard
1 hour ago, HarryG said:

In what situation do you see Trump losing the election but Pence assuming the presidency? Do you think Pence will run against Trump? 

 

Pretty sure he's referring to the hypothetical scenario where Trump is removed from office and Pence would assume presidential duties. He never said anything about running against Trump dude.

 

As for the actual question, I don't see Trump being removed from office. Hasn't happened in the past and unlikely to happen now. I don't think there's much discussion to be had in regards to this as the country is pretty partisan and members of both parties will vote along party lines. As far as the general election is concerned, the general American public is pretty stupid and lacks basic reading comprehension so it's probably safe to assume any negative impact of Trump getting impeached is negligible. Trump's base is pretty staunch because they don't trust news sites and lack reading comprehension so his support will still be there too.

 

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SlamJam

5 keys says because of this, in 2020 dem voter turnout is lower due to people going "heh rip drumpfy I don't even need to vote this year he can't win." And rep voter turnout smashes all records and ensures Trump the win because Republicans are gonna be pissed that the House majority party won a vote that only needs a simple majority.

 

The Senate needs a 2/3rds majority to actually boot Trump from office or take this any further, and if the House vote was anything to go by (literally only 1 representative voted against their party and he was a dem, all Republicans voted no.), it's got as much chance of happening as California going red in the electorate.

 

Either way the only Democrat candidate that's even going to be competitive is Bernie and so far the Dem party is backatitagain with pushing old party staples like Joe Biden over him. They really don't want Bernie Sanders do they? (I don't either, I really don't need a +25% income tax increase. But he's still got a better chance than Biden or Warren.)

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Sniper Noob

I doubt it'll have any impact. The Republicans will never turn against him, and the Democrats already hated him. 

 

That being said, I saw a news story about an Evangelical newspaper that turned against him. The Evangelicals are a huge part of his base, so if that fortress starts to come down things could get interesting. I don't think it'll matter though, the Republican senators won't vote to convict him even if their constituents want them to.

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Bigg

Republicans have extremely low odds of reclaiming control of the house. Trends show an increasing amount of liberal voters turning out to vote since the 2018 midterms.

 

According to RCP, President Trump is behind all major candidates both nationally and in a majority of swing states. The Republicans' worst case scenario is Joe Biden obtaining the nomination, and best case scenario is essentially anyone else. Democrats need to nominate a moderate to win back voters. Anyone in the realm of Elizabeth Warren and/or Bernie Sanders is unfortunately for them out of the question.

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Sniper Noob

I think a far left candidate would either energize a huge segment of democratic voters, or alienate independents and be a disaster. The reverse goes for if a moderate is nominated. I don't know which outcome would be more likely though in either case.

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Bigg
16 hours ago, Sniper Noob said:

I think a far left candidate would either energize a huge segment of democratic voters, or alienate independents and be a disaster. The reverse goes for if a moderate is nominated. I don't know which outcome would be more likely though in either case.

 

When Clinton was the nominee back in 2016 she had no issue of retaining progressive vote despite being a moderate.

 

Even so, while progressives are becoming an increasing voting block, most of them will no doubt vote Democrat in the general regardless. Moderates are the biggest voting block anyway, which is why states that are filled with them, such as Iowa or New Hampshire are so crucial to win. A far left candidate would alienate more voters than they would actually gain.

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Sniper Noob
3 hours ago, Bigg said:

 

When Clinton was the nominee back in 2016 she had no issue of retaining progressive vote despite being a moderate.

 

Even so, while progressives are becoming an increasing voting block, most of them will no doubt vote Democrat in the general regardless. Moderates are the biggest voting block anyway, which is why states that are filled with them, such as Iowa or New Hampshire are so crucial to win. A far left candidate would alienate more voters than they would actually gain.

 

My rebuttal to that would be the Bernie or Bust and Jill Stein people we saw in '16. Unclear whether they learned their lesson from last time.

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Bigg
5 hours ago, Sniper Noob said:

 

My rebuttal to that would be the Bernie or Bust and Jill Stein people we saw in '16. Unclear whether they learned their lesson from last time.


Majority of Bernie or bust voters, what I call “Bernie Bros” still voted for Hillary. Neither they nor Jill Stein voters cut into Hillary’s numbers enough to do damage. 
 

Even so, Hillary still won the popular vote besides that.

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Sniper Noob
On 12/24/2019 at 12:07 AM, Bigg said:


Majority of Bernie or bust voters, what I call “Bernie Bros” still voted for Hillary. Neither they nor Jill Stein voters cut into Hillary’s numbers enough to do damage. 
 

Even so, Hillary still won the popular vote besides that.

 

Not sure how true that is, would be interested to see some actual numbers.

 

The popular vote doesn't matter though. A lot of states were very close, I'm not sure whether the Bernie or Bust crowd had enough people sitting up to swing those states, but either way I think the message still stands: better off with 80% of what you want than 0%.

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