Jump to content

Has anyone else noticed this?


Brown

Recommended Posts

When premium searching the new unusuals, there's an oddly large amount of fifth dimensions being unboxed compared to other effects. Checking the stats of new unusuals confirms this, as Forgivable mentioned,-

 

"You can also notice that Fifth dimension is the most common unusual effect unboxed from the crate 

https://backpack.tf/overview/Convict Cap

https://backpack.tf/overview/Voodoo Vizier

https://backpack.tf/overview/El Mostacho

https://backpack.tf/overview/Skullbrero

"

-with wicked wood being a close second in 3 out of 4 of the examples.

When you look at the effects of the actual cases during halloween, you'll see "Fifth Dimension" and "Wicked Wood" are mentioned more than once.

10b4de95c6d12c4ca76c6ed5c0d9b375.png

 

Is this a bug? Does the effect list actually affect the rarity of these effects? Has this happened before?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I noticed it on day one that it listed those two effects multiple times. What I assume is the reason is that the other three effects are sets of three, I.E. the "GBH/Time Warp" style ones, the tall light ones, and the whirlwind-looking ones all have 3 different colors, thus each take up 3 slots. What probably happened is they lazily added Fifth Dimension and the two woods but with the same code that was used for the other three, and thus FD and WW got duplicated by mistake, leading to 3 Fifth Dimension appearances and 2 Wicked Wood appearances, and thus, to the likelihood of them being easier to unbox than any of the other effects.

 

The Bat Hat supports this as well, but with Wicked Wood only being slightly higher than a couple other effects:

https://backpack.tf/overview/Bat Hat

 

Either way, this is going to lead to way more Fifth Dimension and Wicked Woods unusuals than the other effects, which will lead to them being cheaper and easier to obtain. Good news to Fifth Dimension lovers who love the effect, bad news to anyone that's spending hundreds of keys on FD hats thinking they're going to be the next Bonzo or Nebula.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This was the same thing that happened last year, however very few people noticed. The chance at unboxing a individual partner effect is lower than a non-partner effect, however the chance of getting any of the partner effects is equal to a non-partner effect. 

 

https://backpack.tf/overview/Vampire Vanquisher - Clairvoyance + Omniscient orb are almost 3x as common as the other effects, which all have a relatively normal 20-30 in existence. 

 

You might be on to something with Wicked Wood listed twice when Ghastly Grove is not - this could be a bug. There are 4 unique effects, so there should be a 25% chance of unboxing one of the two, and a 12.5% of each

For 5th D, it should be a 25% chance [numbers taken from convict's cap] 50/(50 + 28 + 17 + 14 + 12 + 11 + 10 + 10 + 10 + 9 + 9 + 7) = 26.7% - close.

For Abyssal Aura it should be a 25%/3 = 8.33% chance 12/187 = 6.4% - close.

Wicked Wood should be 12.5% - 28/187 = ~15%  - close.

Ghastly Grove should be 12.5 as well, however 10/187  = 5.3% - close to 8.33% not 12.5%

 

Of course the %'s are not spot on but there is variance and this is not a large sample size.

 

The bug is that Ghastly Grove should be listed twice, however it is only listed once, meaning it has the same chance of being unboxed as a partner effect w/ 3 in existence instead of the same chance as Wicked Wood. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting, and yeah whenever i go on trade servers, i barely ever see any twisted radiance (and variants of that) effects. Fifth Dimension and wicked woods is everywhere

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 I noticed the double phrasing in the case descriptions last year but thought nothing of it at the time. This explains a lot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, mike_ers said:

What probably happened is they lazily added Fifth Dimension and the two woods but with the same code that was used for the other three, and thus FD and WW got duplicated by mistake, leading to 3 Fifth Dimension appearances and 2 Wicked Wood appearances, and thus, to the likelihood of them being easier to unbox than any of the other effects.

 

The fact that this is the most likely explanation is hilarious. I guess that makes two unnecessary blows to the economy in a row this year.

7 hours ago, mike_ers said:

Good news to Fifth Dimension lovers who love the effect, bad news to anyone that's spending hundreds of keys on FD hats thinking they're going to be the next Bonzo or Nebula.

 

Unfortunate, I was sure 5d would take a nose dive after the hype before I even saw the statistics just from how many were unboxed first week, but maybe demand will prevail

 

 

6 hours ago, Xergoyf said:

The bug is that Ghastly Grove should be listed twice, however it is only listed once, meaning it has the same chance of being unboxed as a partner effect w/ 3 in existence instead of the same chance as Wicked Wood.

Now I'm thinking laziness is actually the likely culprit, like mike said they could've just re-used the same code mistakenly. Now that I think about it, I wonder if they've done this for older crate effects of the past as well where u couldn't see the effect list. Crazy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This also happened last year - you'll notice there's a lot more clairvoyance and omniscient orb hats than any other specific effect. Same with Static + Nether Void taunts.

My understanding is that when you get an unusual, you have an equal chance to get each effect -type-. Because there's only one type of fifth dimension you will always get fifth dimension within that effect type. The 3 colours of the vortex are the portal type, the portal storms (Abyssal Aura + friends) are one type. And there's only two forest types, and I presume it was easier for them to just make one twice as likely as making them equal.

I did expect this to happen based on last year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, Alecto said:

My understanding is that when you get an unusual, you have an equal chance to get each effect -type-.

This could also be true somewhat. They might sort effects by type when adding them to cases, but give them individual chances of unbox, which would explain the extra mentioning of the effects, but disproportionate unbox rate.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...