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Why have keys gone down so much?


Shoee

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I'm probably just not up to date with all the trading biz. I know an economy "crash" happened kinda recently, which could explain a temporary drop in keys/rise in ref. However, it's been awhile and keys are continuing to fall, ref has risen back to 4 cents (sometimes 5 on mp.tf), and the amount of both in circulation is now about the same as before the crash (at least according to bp.tf). Now, I welcome this change full-heartedly, but I'm just so curious as to how this could be! Anyone got a big brain and could explain?

 

Sorry if I'm just a dummy and it's obvious.

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I'm not Valve and so I don't have a complete ledger of all the transactions involving ref or keys, but my hypothesis is that, yes, it is directly as a result of the Crate Depression Unusuals. What likely happened is that since a ton of people got an Unusual practically for free, a lot of them probably didn't even like said Unusual at all and quicksold it for keys, and then sold a key or 2 for metal so that they could buy weapons, skins, regular hats/miscs, or taunts that they wanted.

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Ahh, so you're saying the amount of sellers might've increased drastically. I suppose I forgot about the demand part of supply and demand. Thanks!

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Like people are saying its likely due to the crate depression. I personally think a big factor is the massive influx of keys that were bought because of it (over 30,000). More keys hitting the market may drive the value down ref-wise.

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35 minutes ago, Apoq said:

Like people are saying its likely due to the crate depression. I personally think a big factor is the massive influx of keys that were bought because of it (over 30,000). More keys hitting the market may drive the value down ref-wise.

This.

Most of these Keys came after the Unusuals were refunded and the refund period approximately corresponds to when Key sellers began to drop heavily in price.

 

7/22 = Keys dropped 2 Refined over the course of the day from 52 to 50 Refined

7/22 - 7/26 = Keys dropped another 2 Refined from 50 to 48 Refined

7/26 - 8/13 = Keys rose another Refined from 48 to 49 Refined

8/13 - 8/16 = Keys dropped another Refined from 49 back to 48 Refined.

The above time frame can be attributed to normal competition.

 

8/16 = Refunds become available

Keys proceeded to drop 5 Refined over the course of the following week and stabilized around 43 Refined.

 

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a lot of keys entering the market, also a lot of people cashed out during the "depression" so a large chunk of people who would normally making key prices rise are just gone

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