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han singular

Roboactive Beak - Poor Mod Judgement

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han singular

Mods obsess over the mention of a 550 offer that seems more realistic than my 805 purchase. The anti-freeze beak (more in existence) suggestion opened as it sold for 666 pure the same day the roboactive beak suggestion closed. The 550 price idea came from a drive-by post by DesertBuggy concerning a private steam conversation between DesertBuggy and UnstoppaBULL. BULL clarified he was made aware of better offers by the only listed seller. Desertbuggy never responded. BULL never listed his beak, so I had no idea he even had one. Why am I being held accountable for a conversation between two other people that led to nothing? BULL never listed his beak for sale. If he had, I would have bought it for the same amount a month earlier.. perhaps before their conversation ever took place. The only listed seller wanted 999 for the roboactive beak and an anti-freeze nunhood.. and that was only a thought.

 

Mod made mention of my last suggestion breaking guidelines and the outcome was left to popular vote. So if I break the guidelines, would that not lead to an influx of downvotes? Suggestion still had plenty of upvotes. Clearly I was making a good point.. and that came before the anti-freeze beak sale blew the single counter argument out of the water.

 

With the sudden revelation that 550 is now an undeniably low judgment, couldn't/shouldn't this pass a suggestion?  It's really a shame that the sale is now out of date because it took months for mods to obsess over an irrelevant note. I wouldn't care, but it is a $900 bullet to my bp value, giving interested parties an excuse to lowball should I decide to sell in the future.

 

If not for the 550 note, nothing is keeping this from failing a suggestion. Again, the 1 of 4 anti-freeze beak sold for 666 pure. Roboactive beak is 1 of 3.

 

https://backpack.tf/profiles/76561198306288794#!/compare/1556496000/1556582400 <-- if anyone would like to open a suggestion. I paid 55 keys + stormy 13th rack. I'd just say something that would break the guidelines.. again.

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j58

For the last time, roboactive beak ain’t being priced to 805, or 550 for that matter. The 666 suggestion on the antifreeze beak will be closed as well. Take your soapboxing elsewhere, if you actually wanted to price this up you should have taken it to 550 when you had the chance.

 

(note here that the antifreeze beak buyer then sold it for a near-800 key loss. 666 should not be taken as a true value on that either.)

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Diamond jozu

i mean i get it that an item of yours may not get priced on what you wanted but its not like you lost money or anything so dont make a thread like this

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Foamy the Fearsome

Most of the site's guidelines are based on standard situations where whether or not something is an outlier is determined by deviation from the mean. Evidently, this does not hold when it concerns a situation where you have very little sales, if more than one at all. Typically there are two possible scenarios - one in which there are no other indicators that'd counter the suggested value (in which case they're typically accepted), and ones in which there are (in which case we generally require more data points). Some cases are clearer than others - sometimes there'll be a situation where the final decision is not an easy one. This was one of those cases.

Purchases from collectors or people that otherwise do not intend to resell are very difficult to objectively review because in many cases they are much higher than anyone else would pay. In scenarios where more sales are available, they're almost exclusively outliers, and even if there aren't, they're pretty much always outliers in reality, looking at the bigger picture. We've decided to allow such sales given that there are no other indicators to show that they are too high within our window of expiration (~3 months time). At this point it comes down to what is/are considered strong enough indicator(s) that something is too high, which is reviewed from case to case and can't really be pinned down by rules, because all those situations are actually just separate exceptions from our basic set of rules and guidelines. When I handled the first time, I've asked for the opinions of the other moderators I had available at that point, all of which were either uncertain or agreed that leaving outdated was the most appropriate solution here. To avoid bias I've asked someone else to handle the resuggestion that was made after independent from me. I'm mentioning this just to show its not me or Polar personally that have an issue with you; we don't hold you accountable for anything.

Looking at the specifics of the post: 

- The anti-freeze beak situation mentioned here as a parallel is actually one of the reasons we are always hesistant with huge spike sales like this one. For clarity - I'm not saying this parallel works since they are two different situations, but since it was mentioned - it actually opens up a possibility to explain a case where accepting such a suggestion has negative consequences.

Arguably, when the 666 sale happened, nothing countered it. However, even the person that paid 666 ended up selling it for much less - an indication that even he felt 666 to have been too much. It is not uncommon for impulse buyers to pay what will end up an outlier amount, only to resell for half of what they paid shortly after (or to then buy something else with it which'd value it much lower) because they changed their mind. If we would rely on every single such purchase, a lot of hats would end up being priced way higher than they should. For the owners themselves this may not seem like that much of a problem, but unless they are avid and/or persuasive traders, it typically backfires for them as well when they try to sell (unless they are lucky enough to find a collector that wants it).

An example of that is this burning bitey:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b8515ffcf6c753225019fd2
I was heavily against that too, but I was absent when the final decision was made. The buyer (who stated he would never sell it) ended up wanting to sell it shortly after, and struggled heavily in doing so. He ended up selling it for 300 to someone that saw it priced at 580 and thought that'd be an easy flip, who then got mad when it was priced back to 300:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c2e107844325a1e950780c3
This would have been prevented if we went with the solid evidence we had at the time that 580 was way too high; no matter what we do, there will always be people that disagree with the decision(s) made.

- You actually make another point that'd support the decision if I understood it correctly  - you mentioned a seller that wanted 999 for the beak and the nun, which would put the beak at ~700 if I understood correctly that that means nun+beak = 999. That'd be from someone who - to my knowledge - isn't actively looking to sell and probably doesn't expect to sell either. Their price being below 800 would actually be a really strong indicator that 800 is too high, but then again, that's only if I got that right.


All those things aside, I want to stress that you should not see this as losing 900$. The decision to accept or not does not cost you anything. An accepted suggestion and 800 keys does not mean you can go to a corner store and sell this hat for 800 keys worth of dollars, nor does a rejected suggestion mean you'll have to sell it for less - after all, it's only a suggested price. It's your hat, and you are free to ask whatever you want for it.

Do not take this decision as me (or any other moderator) taking pleasure in denying such suggestions - we don't. We try to handle every case as best we can, and sadly this means that in some cases, traders will be displeased with the outcome. It may not seem like it, but making such decisions is pretty difficult, especially given that we decide on hundreds of cases on a daily basis. I'm sad to see that you focus only on the negative aspects of this site and feel that we are a boogeyman aiming to stand in your way, instead of focusing on the fact that you got the hat you really wanted, which is what I believe collecting or buying to keep should be all about.

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han singular
12 hours ago, j58 said:

For the last time, roboactive beak ain’t being priced to 805, or 550 for that matter. The 666 suggestion on the antifreeze beak will be closed as well. Take your soapboxing elsewhere, if you actually wanted to price this up you should have taken it to 550 when you had the chance.

 

(note here that the antifreeze beak buyer then sold it for a near-800 key loss. 666 should not be taken as a true value on that either.)

I was told to take this issue to the forums lmao. 

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han singular
2 minutes ago, Foamy the Fearsome said:

Most of the site's guidelines are based on standard situations where whether or not something is an outlier is determined by deviation from the mean. Evidently, this does not hold when it concerns a situation where you have very little sales, if more than one at all. Typically there are two possible scenarios - one in which there are no other indicators that'd counter the suggested value (in which case they're typically accepted), and ones in which there are (in which case we generally require more data points). Some cases are clearer than others - sometimes there'll be a situation where the final decision is not an easy one. This was one of those cases.

Purchases from collectors or people that otherwise do not intend to resell are very difficult to objectively review because in many cases they are much higher than anyone else would pay. In scenarios where more sales are available, they're almost exclusively outliers, and even if there aren't, they're pretty much always outliers in reality, looking at the bigger picture. We've decided to allow such sales given that there are no other indicators to show that they are too high within our window of expiration (~3 months time). At this point it comes down to what is/are considered strong enough indicator(s) that something is too high, which is reviewed from case to case and can't really be pinned down by rules, because all those situations are actually just separate exceptions from our basic set of rules and guidelines. When I handled the first time, I've asked for the opinions of the other moderators I had available at that point, all of which were either uncertain or agreed that leaving outdated was the most appropriate solution here. To avoid bias I've asked someone else to handle the resuggestion that was made after independent from me. I'm mentioning this just to show its not me or Polar personally that have an issue with you; we don't hold you accountable for anything.

Looking at the specifics of the post: 

- The anti-freeze beak situation mentioned here as a parallel is actually one of the reasons we are always hesistant with huge spike sales like this one. For clarity - I'm not saying this parallel works since they are two different situations, but since it was mentioned - it actually opens up a possibility to explain a case where accepting such a suggestion has negative consequences.

Arguably, when the 666 sale happened, nothing countered it. However, even the person that paid 666 ended up selling it for much less - an indication that even he felt 666 to have been too much. It is not uncommon for impulse buyers to pay what will end up an outlier amount, only to resell for half of what they paid shortly after (or to then buy something else with it which'd value it much lower) because they changed their mind. If we would rely on every single such purchase, a lot of hats would end up being priced way higher than they should. For the owners themselves this may not seem like that much of a problem, but unless they are avid and/or persuasive traders, it typically backfires for them as well when they try to sell (unless they are lucky enough to find a collector that wants it).

An example of that is this burning bitey:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b8515ffcf6c753225019fd2
I was heavily against that too, but I was absent when the final decision was made. The buyer (who stated he would never sell it) ended up wanting to sell it shortly after, and struggled heavily in doing so. He ended up selling it for 300 to someone that saw it priced at 580 and thought that'd be an easy flip, who then got mad when it was priced back to 300:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5c2e107844325a1e950780c3
This would have been prevented if we went with the solid evidence we had at the time that 580 was way too high; no matter what we do, there will always be people that disagree with the decision(s) made.

- You actually make another point that'd support the decision if I understood it correctly  - you mentioned a seller that wanted 999 for the beak and the nun, which would put the beak at ~700 if I understood correctly that that means nun+beak = 999. That'd be from someone who - to my knowledge - isn't actively looking to sell and probably doesn't expect to sell either. Their price being below 800 would actually be a really strong indicator that 800 is too high, but then again, that's only if I got that right.


All those things aside, I want to stress that you should not see this as losing 900$. The decision to accept or not does not cost you anything. An accepted suggestion and 800 keys does not mean you can go to a corner store and sell this hat for 800 keys worth of dollars, nor does a rejected suggestion mean you'll have to sell it for less - after all, it's only a suggested price. It's your hat, and you are free to ask whatever you want for it.

Do not take this decision as me (or any other moderator) taking pleasure in denying such suggestions - we don't. We try to handle every case as best we can, and sadly this means that in some cases, traders will be displeased with the outcome. It may not seem like it, but making such decisions is pretty difficult, especially given that we decide on hundreds of cases on a daily basis. I'm sad to see that you focus only on the negative aspects of this site and feel that we are a boogeyman aiming to stand in your way, instead of focusing on the fact that you got the hat you really wanted, which is what I believe collecting or buying to keep should be all about.

I dont mean to offend mods and I’m certainly not calling anyone out. Take a look at the sunbeams White Russian suggestion you passed. I do not understand that at all. You even admit it is an obvious outlier and other owners were attempting to profit off of it. Still accepted.  

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j58
1 hour ago, han singular said:

I dont mean to offend mods and I’m certainly not calling anyone out. Take a look at the sunbeams White Russian suggestion you passed. I do not understand that at all. You even admit it is an obvious outlier and other owners were attempting to profit off of it. Still accepted.  

Accepted because there are no other data points to prove the sale was high - although it is obviously high to anyone looking at it, there were no sellers, no buyout, and that was the only sale. It is an obvious outlier, but shouldn’t be declined due to nothing proving it as one.

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mr. o.g.
14 hours ago, j58 said:

For the last time, roboactive beak ain’t being priced to 805, or 550 for that matter. The 666 suggestion on the antifreeze beak will be closed as well. Take your soapboxing elsewhere, if you actually wanted to price this up you should have taken it to 550 when you had the chance.

 

(note here that the antifreeze beak buyer then sold it for a near-800 key loss. 666 should not be taken as a true value on that either.)

 

 

Says the guy standing on a stolen soapbox.   Why are you still allowed to post on these forums after stealing from the TF2 community?

OP has a legitimate question and was looking for a legitimate answer from a legitimate TF2 community member that can be trusted.

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unstopaBULLY

For whatever reason this desertbuggy thing has caused a lot of confusion. I would show the chat logs but my phone/PC can't go that far back.

 

I bought the RA beak in a bulk trade, and I asked buggy if he was possibly interested. I said I would possibly list it at that, an idea which I quickly RETRACTED as soon as apo told me his past offers. I may be a somewhat experienced trader but that doesn't mean I make mistakes, and it's pretty clear in the past few months how hard miscs, especially halloween/eotl have been skyrocketing. I made a clear mistake in even considering it that low of a price, and I quickly sold it within MINUTES for the 13th rack + 50 keys. So within like 3 hours of me owning the hat it was sold for 800. Backpack.tf aims to provide an accurate price for their users, and what looks more accurate RA at 800 or 300? I think it's a pretty obvious decision. I'm confident that even if han didn't buy the beak I could get 800 for it. This sale might have seemed like an outlier at the time but in retrospective it's pretty clear it was just following the trend of increasingly expensive miscs.

 

P.S. an antifreeze duped beak recently sold for 666 pure, and I'm sure ash can sell it for just as much, if not more.

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han singular
13 hours ago, j58 said:

Accepted because there are no other data points to prove the sale was high - although it is obviously high to anyone looking at it, there were no sellers, no buyout, and that was the only sale. It is an obvious outlier, but shouldn’t be declined due to nothing proving it as one.

Nothing proving it as one... except for the mod's post.. popular opinion.. the buyers collector status.. a 400% price increase on a 1 of 5 heavy hat.. and another seller immediately listing theirs when the suggestion opened. 

 

If it were truly all about SALES, the Roboactive Beak would have passed with the first suggestion you opened.

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han singular

A guy considers selling an item for 550. Decides to sell for 805. Why would the item be valued at 550?

 

I've been trading for like 5-6 years and all mods have done is insult my judgement. I would never pay so much for a hat if I didn't have faith in it holding it's value.

 

Considering offers I've declined on my rare AF/RA miscs, I know the market doesn't start and end with me.

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Foamy the Fearsome
7 hours ago, unstopaBULLY said:

P.S. an antifreeze duped beak recently sold for 666 pure, and I'm sure ash can sell it for just as much, if not more.

 Already addressed above

 

19 hours ago, han singular said:

I dont mean to offend mods and I’m certainly not calling anyone out. 

I mean I don't really know what else you're trying to accomplish here :P The whole way your post is constructed, named etc. comes across as you blaming us for costing you 900$. Your reply to my comment shows you have no interest in my explanation at all, and the comment directly above this one is literallly just blatantly calling us out on mistreating you, which is absolutely not justified, by the way:

from your suggestion log:

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b297dae44325a72d921ed0d accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a8251b744325a544942694f accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a58c33744325a60e0370c4f accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/588e1739e33877445479d1d7 Mods (and other users) giving you advice, one even took the time to take over, and the properly worded suggestion passed without a hitch: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/589092d7e33877770d784b50
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/551dfd59b88d88190c8b4648 Multiple mods (be it only one that was a mod at the time) giving you advice
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/511087d8ba2536cb44000001 I don't think this one needs explanation

On all of those above where anyone - be it us or other users of the site - tried to help you, you've ignored them. Take that last one for instance: someone took the time to find your sale and spent more energy on his comment than you did on the suggestion, and your only reply "whats up your butt" to someone stirring commotion, which makes it look like you're more interested in drama than in actual help, and this post, as well as the pillory-like suggestion you made after I closed the first one indicate that that hasn't changed since.

You're free to make posts like this - after all that's one of the things the forums are for - but I would strongly recommend you to consider your general attitude - as well as the words you choose - more carefully if your intentions are not to call us out.

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han singular
2 hours ago, Foamy the Fearsome said:

I mean I don't really know what else you're trying to accomplish here :P The whole way your post is constructed, named etc. comes across as you blaming us for costing you 900$. Your reply to my comment shows you have no interest in my explanation at all, and the comment directly above this one is literallly just blatantly calling us out on mistreating you, which is absolutely not justified, by the way:


from your suggestion log:
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5b297dae44325a72d921ed0d accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a8251b744325a544942694f accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5a58c33744325a60e0370c4f accepted
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/588e1739e33877445479d1d7 Mods (and other users) giving you advice, one even took the time to take over, and the properly worded suggestion passed without a hitch: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/589092d7e33877770d784b50
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/551dfd59b88d88190c8b4648 Multiple mods (be it only one that was a mod at the time) giving you advice
https://backpack.tf/suggestion/511087d8ba2536cb44000001 I don't think this one needs explanation

On all of those above where anyone - be it us or other users of the site - tried to help you, you've ignored them. Take that last one for instance: someone took the time to find your sale and spent more energy on his comment than you did on the suggestion, and your only reply "whats up your butt" to someone stirring commotion, which makes it look like you're more interested in drama than in actual help, and this post, as well as the pillory-like suggestion you made after I closed the first one indicate that that hasn't changed since.

By all means, bring up the suggestion that I apologized for and don't mention my apology. 

 

In all of the suggestions you provided, the only time I was ever 'unprofessional' was my comment about a stick being up the guy's butt. Sure. Unprofessional. Did you bother reading his comment? It started out with "shit hat". I was inexperienced. I didn't take this as a rude and aggressive point. I made my comment and walked away. This was SEVEN YEARS AGO. Age 16 and now 23. Yeah.. point proven. 

 

The scorching bonk boy was my attempt to revert the price to what it was before, as the poster ignored 20% of the trade value. I didn't do it the right way.. but neither did they. Nothing I said was malicious. FOUR YEARS AGO.

 

The frostbite belt was a failure to round the total value and I missed another sale. It closed in a day. No time to even apologize for my ignorance. THREE YEARS AGO.

 

All of the more recent suggestions you posted would indicate my valuation of hats is impeccable, and I have a knack for making good deals and turning profits when I actually try. 

 

 

Since we're in the realm of questionable suggestions...

Here's a few suggestions accepted by you:  https://imgur.com/a/xyhI3la  

Maybe you can now visually understand why I was miffed by your comment about my purchase being 'objectively highly'. 

 

 

On 8/16/2019 at 10:43 AM, Foamy the Fearsome said:

You actually make another point that'd support the decision if I understood it correctly  - you mentioned a seller that wanted 999 for the beak and the nun, which would put the beak at ~700 if I understood correctly that that means nun+beak = 999. That'd be from someone who - to my knowledge - isn't actively looking to sell and probably doesn't expect to sell either. Their price being below 800 would actually be a really strong indicator that 800 is too high, but then again, that's only if I got that right.
 

 

This is assuming the nunhood is valued at 300 keys. I offered rack + 250 on the combo. He didn't dislike the offer, but it went nowhere. You've even stated Apo is attached to his hats. His price was simply to weigh interest. He was never committed to selling. You value the nunhood at 300 keys. I value it at 200 keys. Someone else may value it at 250, 1000, or even 50 keys. Outdated. No set prices by any sellers, and no recent sales to indicate realistic trade value. The next top non-misc medic hats with AF effects are 130-150, which would indicate a valuation of 200-250 could be pretty accurate. 

 

Apo had the combo listed at 999 and wasn't committed to selling. Testing the market. I offered what he wanted and nothing came of it.

BULL never listed the beak. 

There are no buyouts here. No individual prices were ever firmly established except for 805 which ultimately led to the beak sale. 

 

4 hours ago, Foamy the Fearsome said:

 Already addressed above

 

Honestly, BULL deserves a more detailed response than simply responding to his P.S.  His perspective when he apparently misjudged the beak's value in a private steam conversation was overwhelming evidence against a raise for the mods.

His expressed opinions, clarifications, and confidence supporting the beak are being largely ignored. Why?

 

Where are the involved non-mod parties arguing against? DesertBuggy made a quick note and never posted again once BULL shed light on how everything went down. If it was a bigger deal, then his words are the most important here.

 

j58 is more tired of me dragging this along. he opened the first suggestion and supported the value of it. I think he's just trying to get back in good graces with mods after the stunt he pulled during the valve f-up. 

 

Final bit:

 

As posted above, Polar stated the last suggestion was left to popular opinion. This coming after acknowledging that the suggestion should have been closed for breaking the guidelines. Easy points for voters if they recognized the suggestion was doomed.

Here's what I didn't post..

 

Let's visit the very first suggestion: https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5cc7c1006780725af7135375

 

Popular opinion: 50-8 Strongly in favor with no nonsense from me commanding a horde of downvotes. Downvotes could have even come after people saw the trajectory of the suggestion was taking a downturn. 

 

If you're going to leave the outcome of the pricing up to the popular vote.. use the suggestion that doesn't crap on the guidelines. 

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han singular

I took two hours crafting this last post. It involved a lot of reconstruction. Proof reading checked out, but at this point my brain is fried. I'm sorry if I double posted anything. 

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