if the keys price keep raising how much will be the ref price?

[Pixxi0us]

I have noticed the price of keys have been rising and rising over the last months and i cant see the explanation for that.

 

Since refined metal price is based on the key price in usd / the number of ref, if the keys price in refined metal keeps going up and the price in usd stays the same it will reach a point that refined will be at 0.01 usd. 

If this happends imo the market will crash, because noone will buy keys anymore and will start to buy ref and then buy keys with those ref, emptying out the bots stock and then what? will we be forced to buy keys for real money only?

 

What i mean with "the market will crash" is that the key price either in usd / ref will be forced to go up / down respectivly making the key price in usd raise a lot to stablish the price of refined.

 

Wanna know what is the opinion of the rest of the community.

 

PS: Not the best explanation but you get the point

 

 

[Scott Bakula]

If refined gets devalued to that point, the game's economy won't crash. Instead, we will see a near-complete separation between the refined market and the key market. Trading will continue as normal, but people won't take metal for their keys anymore, and we'd see things like ToD tickets, paints, and Strange Parts used for pocket change instead.

 

Also, the amount of people that buy and sell refined for cash is infinitesimally smaller than those that buy and sell keys. Even if you bought every refined on the cash market right now and spent it all on keys, you'll have made no noticeable dent in the key market.

[sfpt]

Who the fuck would buy ref just to buy keys.  If it comes to a point where ref is less than 0.01$ then why would you buy it? seems like a convoluted and backwards way to go about it. What will happen and what has been happening is that key trading is simply completely separate from low tier, ref trading. No market is going to crash and there's no reason to panic

[LaughingLollipop]

well a single scrap is already worth less than half a cent, ref will get there eventually

 

should be aroundabout 3 years if decay rate is sustained

[kajzer]

let's make custom desc shotgun new curenncy

[JayTuut]

On 6/11/2019 at 1:59 AM, Scott Bakula said:

If refined gets devalued to that point, the game's economy won't crash. Instead, we will see a near-complete separation between the refined market and the key market. Trading will continue as normal, but people won't take metal for their keys anymore, and we'd see things like ToD tickets, paints, and Strange Parts used for pocket change instead.

 

Also, the amount of people that buy and sell refined for cash is infinitesimally smaller than those that buy and sell keys. Even if you bought every refined on the cash market right now and spent it all on keys, you'll have made no noticeable dent in the key market.

 

Hmm, so the opposite what happened to the buds. Interesting.

[TanktaleSans]

I thought for almost a year, but why can't valve implement a reward system for competitive, where the winning team members get 1 key each? This will make competitive popular and stop key prices from inflation.

[MopkoBka116]

Game's economy won't crash, but i will became a ref millionaire :)

[Scott Bakula]

2 hours ago, TanktaleSans said:

stop key prices from inflation.

Key prices aren't inflating, metal is deflating. It's a massive difference.

 

Valve giving away keys would be one of the most disastrous things to happen to the economy as it would then untether the keys to the US dollar, sending everything into a freefall and becoming worth somewhere between jack and shit.

[Peak]

I've always thought that valve can start selling ref in the mann co shop at a locked price in order to counter act metal deflation and giving a set value for it.

[mintyyy]

25 minutes ago, Peak said:

I've always thought that valve can start selling ref in the mann co shop at a locked price in order to counter act metal deflation and giving a set value for it.

No, mainly because keys are $2.49 in the Mannco Store but they are $1.81 over on marketplace. And, that would create even MORE refined and drop the price down even lower because all the ref in existence will jump up in price (theoretically) and kill the economy

 

[Scott Bakula]

23 hours ago, Peak said:

I've always thought that valve can start selling ref in the mann co shop at a locked price in order to counter act metal deflation and giving a set value for it.

 

That just sets an absolute upper limit, which refined will never be able to reach. It costs $7.49 to get a Bison from the shop, but you don't see people selling them at 3 keys.

 

Also, even if Valve put refined on the store, who would even buy it? Refined's only use is crafting, but nothing is even worth crafting anymore, as almost any result from crafting will be worth less than the individual ingredients. Until Valve puts in an effective refined sink or introduces another event that consumes refined, refined will just keep building up and up and keep losing value.