Why do keys keep going up in price?

[DiscoDonuts]

Since I came here in January, I think the price rose by at least 5 ref. Why does the key price keep changing more than other prices? I've seen suggestions where it was once 7 ref. How did the price increase by 37 ref in 5 or 6 years? The prices exist based on what traders are willing to pay but why do people keep paying more and more and then complain about it? They have the power to change it and yet they do nothing.

[Joeg]

That damn phone

[Kētō]

idk really why, i remember when it was like 3.33-4 ref when I very first started trading. My guess is probably as the game has been out longer there has been more and more weapon drops (amplified by the seemingly millions of idle servers) and over time that amplifies to everyone having more metal. So I guess it's more down to the value of metal going down than the price of keys going up? But yeah I'm not entirely sure because stuff like Bud used to be 30 keys and now not many people would even pay 3 and there was only ever a fixed number of buds (at least after the inital OSX drop period)

[Norah]

A vague combination of there being more ref/items in general, bot/human seller competition on low tier items, and drop in value of keys over the last couple years. Since the lowest forms of currency became less desirable and more common, people valued them less and less. Not to mention keys themselves dropping in price hit refined further, and now the key:ref ratio is absolute bonkers compared to a few years ago.

[FP jh34ghu43gu]

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68952-key-prices/?tab=comments#comment-612464

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68515-keys-are-now-3988-40-ref-ok-then/?tab=comments#comment-610407

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/69321-alright-wtf-with-the-crazy-increase-keys-are-going-through-rn/?do=findComment&comment=614110

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/68932-tf2-key-price/

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/61607-a-dying-economy/?tab=comments#comment-583501

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66016-keys-vs-ref/?do=findComment&comment=598905

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/66812-lower-the-key-price/?do=findComment&comment=602139

https://forums.backpack.tf/topic/56493-are-bots-inflating-the-value-of-keys/?do=findComment&comment=559193

If you don't want to click on those - ref goes down not keys. Tf2 is a $$$ based economy, not a ref one, that uses keys as ~$2 bills. (I know it's closer to $1.75 bills but those don't exist). Ref goes down because it's infinite and doesn't have a reliable sink.

[DuskShadow]

"They have the power to change it and yet they do nothing."
I don't think you understand how inflation works.
Additionally, more and more ref is going into the economy with no real way to burn it. It's not 'magically' deciding a price, if keys dropped back to a few ref, then the biggest traders would lose thousands. But you accuse those people of being selfish, yet you're only thinking of yourself, and wanting the entire economy change to suit you and you only.

"Why does the key price keep changing more than other prices?"
Because keys are the main currency in the economy. Currency changes in value, that's how inflation works.

"I've seen suggestions where it was once 7 ref."
Yes. Years and years ago. Hamburgers used to once be five cents, too. Again, I don't think you understand how inflation works.

[GhostyOsty]

More refined, = refined price drops.

Less refined, = refined price inflates.

Since bots hold the most refined in the entirety of the economy, keys rise up in price. In conclusion, bots should be destroyed so keys can be stable again.

[Budi]

1 hour ago, GhostyOsty said:

Since bots hold the most refined in the entirety of the economy, keys rise up in price. In conclusion, bots should be destroyed so keys can be stable again.

 

No. Even if you removed all bots, the free market determines the fluctuation in keys to refined ratio. They will only be as stable as the free market economy lets them be (i.e. what buyers are willing to pay, and sellers are willing to sell for). 

[LaughingLollipop]

what ya'll really need to ask yourselves is why is ref declining so fast

 

 

[Moose]

I blame Zeussie.

[leftyy]

TF2 needs a new ref sink. It would be incredibly cool but very unlikely if valve ever did something like the golden wrench event again. But temporarily it would burn a lot of ref, thus making keys lower in price.

[Weedoof]

3 hours ago, cha0s said:

-snip-

 

This is basically what happened during the bread box event. Craft hats suddenly became valuable because there was a new sink for them. If you look at most craft hats that were around back then, a lot of them will have a small price spike specifically because of that.

Don't think it affected the key price much because it needed hats vs metal, though I think there were a few suggestions around that time. Honestly it was too long ago for me to remember it all that well. iirc it did get the craft hat currency put into place later on though, so that's kinda neat.

[Snailiad]

A good way to lower the amount of ref would be to have multiple golden wrench-esque events to make people craft it all, in a way where it won't be able to come back. A temporary fix which people would enjoy. (if valve admins dont leak times and abuse the event this time :^) )

[_inu]

Metal is inherently an infinite supply since running the game drops weapons that convert to metal. Keys are finite in the sense that someone has to actually spend money in order to bring a key into the economy. It was bound to happen from the getgo, not like keys rising due to metal falling is some sort of fascinating concept.

 

One currency can be obtained free of charge, the other must be bought and is thus more limited. Quick maths.

[Demon Days]

Metal enters the market with no good way to exit it, so it causes inflation. It's like when a nation prints more money, its value decreases because there's more of it so each individual piece of currency is worth less.

 

Keys have remained stable in comparison, although there is a misconception that their stability is inherent and that they are "worth" $2-2.50 simply because that's what you pay at the Mann Co. store. If TF2 ever experiences an event that causes everyone to try to cash out their keys at once (like if Valve announced they were ceasing new TF2 content, for example), then you would likely see a massive drop in the worth of keys, potentially even under $1.00. 

 

Also, if you hate the idea that the ref:key ratio used to be 7:1, you might be disheartened to learn that when trading was first implemented, it was actually very close to 1:1. At that time I provided a service that allowed people to swap refined and keys as such. Needless to say that service didn't last very long.

[Budi]

On 4/16/2019 at 8:11 AM, Demon Days said:

If TF2 ever experiences an event that causes everyone to try to cash out their keys at once (like if Valve announced they were ceasing new TF2 content, for example), then you would likely see a massive drop in the worth of keys, potentially even under $1.00. 

 

You are correct, and this will inevitably happen at some point. That is why I'm I'm very happy cashing out all my stuff, as this will turn into a giant game of musical chairs where the people left standing (holding TF2 items) are going to get burned big time.