Amateur Analysis: TF2-conomy is Heading for a Massive Crash

[aSmallGreenDot]

8 hours ago, AJ ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) said:

overall market value for key will never supercede the price that mannco ingame store cells it for

you clearly have no concept of the value of the key, it's dropping, big wow 

sites like https://keyvendor.net/ literally sell them for 1.45 bucks per pop, ooof tf2 economy dying big scary, not surprising

finally, the key to ref ratio is merely the game having no ref sink, tehda

Is that site safe and reliable?

[mr. o.g.]

most metal deleted hat of the day

[Adolf Storms]

We are sorry to inform you that this thread has violated the terms of user agreement you made with your brain. Please turn your brain on and close this thread.

 

Sincerely,

Your last 2 brain cells

[RED265]

As an economics graduate, I read the sheer idiocy of it and nearly cried like Sheldon did for stupidity.

[Speshimen]

40 minutes ago, Adolf Storms said:

We are sorry to inform you that this thread has violated the terms of user agreement you made with your brain. Please turn your brain on and close this thread.

 

Sincerely,

Your last 2 brain cells

This is so sad,can we have 50 scraps

[Beaser]

Again just like every mindless human being that ever said about the economy is dying, you probably need some proper education of the basics of an economy. Might as well just leave and not complain about this lmfao.

[Pupu]

This is so stupid thread, Alexa play despasito

[DanielDee]

Think the OP must of been on some sort of drugs when they wrote there illogical rant. The price of ref and keys are directly linked. There was a guy about 3 years ago who posted all the equations regarding the prices and the influence of farming altsLooks like his website is no longer up. Although i cannot remember the URL.. or seem to find it in the forums. It was a domain called key.tf but looks like its parked now.

Keys are 1.99 in mann co store.

Refined Price according to backpack is 0.04. Keys are valued at 45 ref so.... 0.04 x 45 = 1.9

So there is only 0.09 difference from the mann co store and the backpack price. What is the issue with a .09 variance..... Op clearly took a bad batch of something.

[solpan]

Learn to stop worrying and love the Economy. Key-ref ratio has always been questionable. Moreover all new items are marketable so you don't need ref to get stuff. 

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

9 hours ago, aSmallGreenDot said:

Is that site safe and reliable?

Very, I've purchased 500$ worth of keys of them using btc

[aSmallGreenDot]

44 minutes ago, AJ ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) said:

Very, I've purchased 500$ worth of keys of them using btc

Cool, thank you

[XenSakura]

Lmao, keys are stable, they will always be 2.50.

Nothing's going to happen, this isn't world economics, and even if prices do crash, so what?

no one cares, not much is going to happen.

[spaceboy]

I think a lot of it is just resellers pushing the price up arbitrarily.  It's easy as pie for one buyer and one seller to make a listing 1 scrap higher, and then everyone else follows suit.  It happens frequently, and I don't think anyone is using a calculator to figure out when to do it.

[SoranoGuardias]

17 hours ago, DanielDee said:

Think the OP must of been on some sort of drugs when they wrote there illogical rant. The price of ref and keys are directly linked. There was a guy about 3 years ago who posted all the equations regarding the prices and the influence of farming altsLooks like his website is no longer up. Although i cannot remember the URL.. or seem to find it in the forums. It was a domain called key.tf but looks like its parked now.

Keys are 1.99 in mann co store.

Refined Price according to backpack is 0.04. Keys are valued at 45 ref so.... 0.04 x 45 = 1.9

So there is only 0.09 difference from the mann co store and the backpack price. What is the issue with a .09 variance..... Op clearly took a bad batch of something.

My argument boils down to if Keys = 45 refined, were is the corresponding value in total inventory? Total inventory value of metal (5.5M x 0.04 = $220K) vs total inventory value of keys (1.1M x 1.6~2.2 = $1.76M~$2.66M) which makes the equivalent value discrepancy between 800-1200%.

So essentially the resounding rebuttal is the equivalent value we are considering essential is whatever we want at will, a la fiat?

[Quesamo]

8 hours ago, Mew2! said:

Lmao, keys are stable, they will always be 2.50.

Nothing's going to happen, this isn't world economics, and even if prices do crash, so what?

no one cares, not much is going to happen.

No one counts keys as 2.50$. That's the Mann co store price, which is the same place where a bison is 8$

[Mokky]

5 hours ago, Quesamo said:

No one counts keys as 2.50$. That's the Mann co store price, which is the same place where a bison is 8$

That’s because the regular Mann co keys are pretty useless and there’s so many of them. Nothing notable to unbox from the applicable crates.

 

new update keys like the violet vermin key always get bought from the Mann co store and valued at more than a key

[SoranoGuardias]

tHe vaLues of the TraDINg maRKet aRe Based oN KEEEYYYYSSSS.

*REF loses 1/2 of a cent in value on pricing suggestions (due to third-party site influence) and my backpack drops in value by $45*

Again. Your act upvoting the REF equivalency of keys whilst simultaneously upvoting the depression in price of REF is what's going to kill this whole thing.

[Obama llama]

4 hours ago, SoranoGuardias said:

*REF loses 1/2 of a cent in value on pricing suggestions (due to third-party site influence) and my backpack drops in value by $45*

 

Your backpack value hasnt changed because 1 website changed the metric it uses to estimate your bp value lol. Thats not how any of this works.

 

guys there are 16 nuts and bolts dread knots and theyre $16 each. Thats a total of $752. Thats a bit disproportionate to the total value of keys dont you think? They really should be worth $125k each

[SoranoGuardias]

9 hours ago, Obama llama said:

 

Your backpack value hasnt changed because 1 website changed the metric it uses to estimate your bp value lol. Thats not how any of this works.

 

guys there are 16 nuts and bolts dread knots and theyre $16 each. Thats a total of $752. Thats a bit disproportionate to the total value of keys dont you think? They really should be worth $125k each

Except that is exactly what happened. The suggestion that was upvoted and approved listed IN THE REASONING that the price of REF should change because another site is selling it for less.

[Obama llama]

7 hours ago, SoranoGuardias said:

Except that is exactly what happened. The suggestion that was upvoted and approved listed IN THE REASONING that the price of REF should change because another site is selling it for less.

your BP value has nothing to do with how much backpack.tf estimates your BP value to be

[SoranoGuardias]

Again incorrect. Backpack.tf is the defacto trading resource for users who want to use something other than the community market on Steam. 

[Obama llama]

ever heard the term bible.tf? You are a prime example

 

Things are worth what people will buy them for, not what some random website dictates the prices are. Lots of items in my backpack are incorrectly valued on this website. Dont get all your information from a single website 

 

Please never get into any financial work in the real world. Its for your own good.

[HolyOnion]

ah yes... classic "pyro is op", "TF2 is dead" or "omg key prices are 1 scrap higher economy rip" thread

[Teztagu]

Hate to be the guy but I agree with this dude, having been in this economy since 2012, I'm not seeing a bright future for trading.

 

What I see is a lot of people on a high speed train heading for a wall, but instead of attempting to stop the train, they're just denying that there is a wall ahead of them, and it will be perfectly fine.

I was in this train as well, and then my backpack went down 200 dollars and I sold all of my stuff.

No stable and healthy economy sees that much fluctuation fellas.

[flirganovski]

Honestly i dont care about refined metal and i only use them when i need to add them for some item, only keys are important for me. Inventory value in refined metal is useless! Thats just backpack.tf method. Please stop with nonsense "everything is dying", every day here posts about dying economy and that kind of things. If you cant buy some keys and start like a man then just quit, forget about from REF to 10000000000 keys! That wont happen! This is like every economy: if you want profit you need to invest some money (at least 15-20 keys) and time, put big effort then you will see the results. Crying about dead game and economy is just a waste of time. No offense but this is my honest opinion. Please stop with posts like this, enonomy is fine if you dont like just quit.