Amateur Analysis: TF2-conomy is Heading for a Massive Crash

[SoranoGuardias]

To directly quote a point I made in another thread:

The entire economics of the situation do not make sense. If a key is "worth" 45 refined metal, then there has to be some sort of equivalency between the two items.

Value of Item A  /  Value of Item B   =   Total number of A to equal B

In order for there to be equivalency each value has to be absolute and equivalent, and each equivalent value must be based off of the other.

 

Drawing from stats here, out of approximately 7 million accounts there are approximately 5.5 million ref.

Out of the same number of accounts there are approximately 1.1 million keys.

So if each of these keys is worth 45 refined, the total value of estimated keys in circulation exceeds the total value of estimated refined metal by a factor of nearly 900%.

If anything, the trading value of keys needs to be frozen and allow time for the value of TF2's base currency, which is the refined, to catch up to the "gold standard" or we are going to have another crash like when the buds devalued.

Stop using Steam Marketplace as a means of determining value. These are sellers trying to get rid of items quicker to get some cash quickly. These are outliers that should not be used to normalize trends.

[Pupu]

Nobody cares, go to unusual trading

[SoranoGuardias]

There's no value is doing any trading. There's no real value backing anything up at all.

You should not be so dismissive.

[Smartieshehe]

16 minutes ago, Pupu said:

Nobody cares, go to unusual trading

So you can try to scam him?

[Diamond jozu]

the only analysis is that we dont need threads like these to be posted.if you're fed up with how much a key is in refined metal then just use real money and buy keys

[Halálfaló]

Team fortress 2 has died many times according to others.. I think the Trade won't go anywhere. If so, might the christmas update will change something. I don't worry at all.

[Diamond jozu]

Just now, Halálfaló said:

Team fortress 2 has died many times according to others.. I think the Trade won't go anywhere. If so, might the christmas update will change something. I don't worry at all.

again,dont make useless post or comments like this.tf2 may seem to have 'died' but its not.

[SoranoGuardias]

If that's all that you gathered from my post then you're pretty dense.

My point is there is no real value backing up the numbers that are being thrown up. I don't care about the metal to key ratios like people who are trying to trade up. I'm always shopping for deals on whatever I can get my hands on, but it needs to be emphasized that the numbers with which the TF2 trading economy has been propped up with simply DO NOT ADD UP.

You cannot have an item whose total value exceeds the total value of the items with which it is based on.

*EDIT*

Please note that I said NOTHING about the gamestate of TF2. I said the trading scene/economy. Don't put words into my mouth.

 

[Halálfaló]

1 minute ago, Diamond jozu said:

again,dont make useless post or comments like this.tf2 may seem to have 'died' but its not.

I know. I meant to say that it hadn't died at all as others said. I still play with it... I wanted to say that the keys value won't make any change in the TF2 economy.

[SoranoGuardias]

Right. With the key having a real-world value of $2.50 purchase / $1.80-$2.20 trade, that's a fixed value. 

But if the key is to be worth something in game to scale, for example Refined Metal, the item's value must be in relation to it's supply versus the compared item's supply/value.

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

wait so bc the ratio is 1:5 and not 1:45 as you would want it to be, you suggest that people stop unboxing? NNNNN...N.N.N.N.N..NN.N.AAAANI? PEOPLE ACTUALLY USE KEYS FOR OTHER THAN TRADING PURPOSES?

[SoranoGuardias]

The Key to Refined ratio is currently 1 key to appx 5 refined, yet the trading value is 1 key to appx 45 refined. That is an hyper-inflated value. If anything people should be unboxing MORE. This would increase overall market value of the key and the refined. The tradeoff would be that there would be a marked increase in items such as stranges and unusuals.

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

1 minute ago, SoranoGuardias said:

The Key to Refined ratio is currently 1 key to appx 5 refined, yet the trading value is 1 key to appx 45 refined. That is an hyper-inflated value. If anything people should be unboxing MORE. This would increase overall market value of the key and the refined. The tradeoff would be that there would be a marked increase in items such as stranges and unusuals.

overall market value for key will never supercede the price that mannco ingame store cells it for

you clearly have no concept of the value of the key, it's dropping, big wow 

sites like https://keyvendor.net/ literally sell them for 1.45 bucks per pop, ooof tf2 economy dying big scary, not surprising

finally, the key to ref ratio is merely the game having no ref sink, tehda

[SoranoGuardias]

That's hardly an argument. As I stated the trading value of the key is artificially high, so it's no wonder that many sites do sell them at heavily discounted values. The argument that they do so is not a good indication of value. 

[Danny | QB Backpacks/Spell]

1 minute ago, SoranoGuardias said:

That's hardly an argument. As I stated the trading value of the key is artificially high, so it's no wonder that many sites do sell them at heavily discounted values. The argument that they do so is not a good indication of value. 

what are you even arguing? 

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

soooooo hol up, you want a ratio of 1:5?

this was an extremely well made good attempt on that MAKE KEYS 5 REF AGAIN lol

if its artificially high, yall we should value keys at 5 x 0.03 cents = 15 cents

[SoranoGuardias]

I am arguing that the current trading metrics DO NOT ADD UP. And that there needs to be a steady correction.

I'm not arguing for immediate 5 REF again. Stop assuming you know what I am thinking. That would just be dumb and crash it all the same. There needs to be a steady reduction in the amount of keys followed by a steady increase in the available metal supply.
 

If anything we should freeze the trading metrics for a while and let corrections take course. More unboxing to eliminate excess keys and more crafting to increase available metal.

[Danny | QB Backpacks/Spell]

1 minute ago, SoranoGuardias said:

I am arguing that the current trading metrics DO NOT ADD UP. And that there needs to be a steady correction.

I'm not arguing for immediate 5 REF again. Stop assuming you know what I am thinking. That would just be dumb and crash it all the same. There needs to be a steady reduction in the amount of keys followed by a steady increase in the available metal supply.
 

If anything we should freeze the trading metrics for a while and let corrections take course. More unboxing to eliminate excess keys and more crafting to increase available metal.

"freeze the trading metrics" as in everyone should stop trading? what is even the issue with keys being worth 45 ref?

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

sure, go tell all the traders to stop trading and making money, go for it, you can make it, i am 100% certain that will happen, in fact, i will lay down a key right now that it will most definitely not happen but like i mean BELIEVE MY SON, GO FLYYYYYYYYYYYY

 

 

 

yes "corrections take course" do enlighten us lord buddha

 

[SoranoGuardias]

Do you even read or are you deliberately making a circular argument?

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

i wOuLdN't kNoW mAn sToP aSsUmInG yOu kNoW wHaT iS gOiNg oN iN mY hEaD

[Danny | QB Backpacks/Spell]

Just now, SoranoGuardias said:

Do you even read or are you deliberately making a circular argument?

if you're talking to me I'm trying to break down what you're saying because at the moment it's just gibberish 

[FeelZ]

This is stupid. For what reason does the value of the total supply of keys need to be identical to the value of the total supply of metal?

[ajdislikesyournamingpolicy]

1 minute ago, FeelZ said:

This is stupid. For what reason does the value of the total supply of keys need to be identical to the value of the total supply of metal?

Yes , sorano said so it must be law

[SoranoGuardias]

Okay. Gimme a second to change into the purple dinosaur suit so I can break it down BARNEY STYLE.

KEYS are trading at 45 REFINED or traded at cash value between $1.80 and $2.20 through most common markets, IGNORING OUTLIERS, with a market supply of around 1.1 MILLION UNITS. 
REFINED METAL is trading at 4 CENTS with a market supply of 5.5 MILLION UNITS.

 

For a key to equal a refined in trading: 45 REF / KEY

In monetary trading value: 45-54 REF / KEY

 

However, let's look at the actual values for these item totals based on supply.

Keys: 1.1M Units ranging from $1.80-$2.20 per unit: $1.98M - $2.42M
Ref: 5.5M Units at 4 cents per unit: $275,000

The values being assigned to items do not correlate.