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I believe that the Unusual unbox rate was never 1%, the actual rate is more like 0.5% to 0.66%


base64

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wouldn't be the first time they math failed would it. lol

 

remember the first stab at the drop system? :P

Dem camera beards  :wacko:

anyways, Yeah I know a guy who unboxed like 300+ crates and never got 1unuasal, he gave his bud his last key, he unboxed it and got a green energy kabuto's (I shit you not xD) 

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I figured that since the release of the new crates there were 400 new unusuals so that number would be more like 280 from those crate.  Has anyone seen them for sale yet?  Or uncrated one themselves?

 

When was the number of 1% established?  I know wiki says that but is that certain? 

 

If that is the overall number, is it possible that they adjust the number during certain times like during that holloween period when the themed hats would be unusuals?  Maybe higher to alter the market?

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http://tf2finance.com/rate/

 

Discuss any possible error, or implications.

This is impossible to calculate anywhere remotely close to actual figures.

 

Lets start with percentiles then. Out of all crates opened (could be calculated if you have data of total amount of keys sold from the Mann Co. store and total of keys in existence today, including holiday keys), if the actual Unsusual rate is 1%, it's easy to assume the overall Unusual rate in all items uncrated is 1%. This is only true if you're also assuming that all crates potentially carry the same amount of items + 1 unusual. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Factoring in Salvaged and Holiday crates, they carry either signicantly less or more potential items than the common crate. The chances of you unboxing an unusual from a crate that carries 6 potential items (Salvaged Crate 40) are much higher than a crate that potentially carries 14 items (Nice Winter Crate 2012). This tells us these special crates need to be calculated separately from normal ones. Simply speaking, 1% out of 100 is enormously better than 1% out of 1,000,000 in terms of chance.

Fun Fact: The Naughty Winter Crate 2012 had a total of 36 guaranteed listed items of both unique and strange festives.

 

If we are calculating the overall items uncrated in existence, we have to then ask ourselves; What does 1% mean? Is it out of all crates opened, or does this include all that will drop, are opened, unopened or deleted? It is possible that there could be an algorithm that adjusts the chances according to actual existing (or both existing and deleted) crates, but common sense should tell us that the 1% algorithm is more than likely not dependent on crate count and only affecting crates individually because it's simply more practical this way. We can see calculating overall crates is just impossible and produces too many variables and most importantly offsetts true estimated values in terms of chances for each crate (Special Crates vs Normal Crates).

 

I believe the best way to determing if current chances of uncrating an unusual is actually 1% is to use fixed numbers. The best crates to use of course are the more recently discontinued that do not contain perishable items such as paints, strange parts, non-strange weapons or re-released stranges. First, this will provide more recent data if any changes in algorithms may have occurred during older crate releases and second, when counting existing items from these crate series it would not be necessary to compensate for normal weapon uncrates which are lost in crafting and mixed with drops in the count rate or perishable items except for hats that may have been destroyed during any crafting process. Last is the biggest issue of them all: determing which unusual came from which crate. This so far is impossible to do, which means you reading this paragraph was a complete waste of time, but more importantly, me writing this paragraph was a complete and considerably larger waste of my time.

 

So, the best estimation we can get which will still be offset with the actual unusual rate but as accurate as we're ever gonna get is to only consider calculating crates that are discontinued, don't contain any perishable items except for hats and don't contain any re-releases or normal weapons remebering to calculate both normal crates and special crates separately for that 1 percent chance difference between them. Why only crates with stranges and hats only? It's easier to count and have more reliable and stable numbers. Since there's no way to determine how many unusuals came out from these specific crates, it will have to be represented with an X. Next we compare your overall estimation (which should be recalculated accordingly with special crates) with this specific estimation and solve for X. The solution to X will of course be significantly lower than the actual rate because its parent expressions were compared to another equation with a solution which was estimated with far more perishable items, re-releases & other unique items, so compensation would be needed.

 

Main points:

  • Chances of uncrating an Unusual vary from crate to crate according to how much that 1% actually represents when the amount of listed items changes from crate to crate.
  • Crates that only have stranges and hats have more reliable data than crates with other unique items, requiring less compensation.
  • We don't know which Unusuals came out of what crates :(

....and also boogerfart.

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This is impossible to calculate anywhere remotely close to actual figures.

 

The chances of you unboxing an unusual from a crate that carries 6 potential items (Salvaged Crate 40) are much higher than a crate that potentially carries 14 items (Nice Winter Crate 2012). This tells us these special crates need to be calculated separately from normal ones.

 

Possible: Each crate series has different unusual chance.

 

What does 1% mean? Is it out of all crates opened, or does this include all that will drop, are opened, unopened or deleted?

 

Possible: Unusual chance is variable and dependent on someone else, such as total crates remaining, total unusuals in one period, total items in the world, etc.

 

do not contain perishable items such as paints, strange parts, non-strange weapons or re-released items

 

I think the Christmas 2011 event (original_id 610,000,000 to 640,000,000) mainly produced Festive and Strange Festive, Misc, and 3 weapons.

That interval is by far the most accurate sample.

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I think the Christmas 2011 event (original_id 610,000,000 to 640,000,000) mainly produced Festive and Strange Festive, Misc, and 3 weapons.

That interval is by far the most accurate sample.

Actually, are there any crates that fit any of these criteria? What should be perfect candidates for a pure sample would be the crates that contain only non-re-released stranges. Craft hats are excluded from the perishable items list because they're a possible unbox in every crate and would be the only variable you would have to compensate for. Time to do a quick search.

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Actually, many of the normal crates fit the criteria for samples. What should be perfect candidates for a pure sample would be the crates that contain only non-re-released stranges. Craft hats are excluded from the perishable items list because they're a possible unbox in every crate and would be the only variable you would have to compensate for.

 

8,000 Hats are created through either combining 2 Hats or 3 Ref, each day. 

 

People do use hats from unboxing as ingredients. 

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8,000 Hats are created through either combining 2 Hats or 3 Ref, each day. 

 

People do use hats from unboxing as ingredients. 

Yes, which is why they need to be compensated for... it's a given variable with any crate.

Crates 30,31,33,34,37,38 & 40 fit the criteria of the purest samples.

If I were you I'd start taking notes of current item counts of the stranges from those crates before they get re-released.

Also current unopened crates of those series is good data as well. ;)

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