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Adjusting Price for Recent Key Spike


Weirdo With a Gun Fetish

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Just a question regarding the price I am selling at. I am trying to find a new price for my painted Bill's. I was going to sell it for 2.2 keys (2 keys 5 ref) back when keys were 27.55 ref a piece, however with the recent increase in key price, I'm trying to figure out a new price for it. Any suggestions?

 

My current idea is to sell it for 2.57 keys (2 keys 18 ref). How did I come up with this? ([32.22/27.55] x 2.2). Tell me what you think.

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I don't think that's how it works.

If I'm understanding this correctly, you are  going of the assumption that keys are still 27.55 ref, and that you will be offered as much. 

The price of the hat is STILL 2.2 keys. 2.2 keys has not changed in value, its refined that has.

Someone else can probably clarify/ correct me

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25 minutes ago, sscourge said:

I don't think that's how it works.

If I'm understanding this correctly, you are  going of the assumption that keys are still 27.55 ref, and that you will be offered as much. 

The price of the hat is STILL 2.2 keys. 2.2 keys has not changed in value, its refined that has.

Someone else can probably clarify/ correct me

Yes, the refined metal depreciation is what has changed. If you are wanting to maintain a 2.2 key ratio then it needs to be 2 keys + ~5.88-6.44 refined*.

 

*Changed to your preference based on the rounding shown below.

 

Why? Here's the mathematical reasoning:

 

At 27.55 ref --> 5/27.55 = ~ 0.2 (0.1815...)

 

At 32.22 ref --> (0.1815...) * 32.22 = ~5.88 (5.8475...)

 

The rest of the refined metal depreciation is already accounted for in the price of the 2 keys, so you are only adjusting for the partial value of the key.

 

 

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29 minutes ago, saveriocello said:

am i missing something or is 2.2 a bit much https://backpack.tf/stats/Unique/Bill's Hat/Tradable/Craftable

 

Didn't even think of the price, but it looks like he wants to try extract his paint's value.

 

As a final note to OP: even in the theoretical scenario that you had a liquid market of sellers for your hat/paint combo at 2 keys + 5 ref when keys were 27.55, if other sellers don't alter their ref pricing then realistically you can't expect to get more than what they're still selling at. This applies to every item in the tf2 economy.

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6 hours ago, LSO said:

Didn't even think of the price, but it looks like he wants to try extract his paint's value.

 

As a final note to OP: even in the theoretical scenario that you had a liquid market of sellers for your hat/paint combo at 2 keys + 5 ref when keys were 27.55, if other sellers don't alter their ref pricing then realistically you can't expect to get more than what they're still selling at. This applies to every item in the tf2 economy.

Thanks. I've been out of the trading game for a while now and even then, I wasn't sure how people reacted to changes in key prices. 

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8 hours ago, LSO said:

Yes, the refined metal depreciation is what has changed. If you are wanting to maintain a 2.2 key ratio then it needs to be 2 keys + ~5.88-6.44 refined*.

 

*Changed to your preference based on the rounding shown below.

 

Why? Here's the mathematical reasoning:

 

At 27.55 ref --> 5/27.55 = ~ 0.2 (0.1815...)

 

At 32.22 ref --> (0.1815...) * 32.22 = ~5.88 (5.8475...)

 

The rest of the refined metal depreciation is already accounted for in the price of the 2 keys, so you are only adjusting for the partial value of the key.

 

 

Ahh, I see. Thanks again. Clears a lot up.

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8 hours ago, sscourge said:

I don't think that's how it works.

If I'm understanding this correctly, you are  going of the assumption that keys are still 27.55 ref, and that you will be offered as much. 

The price of the hat is STILL 2.2 keys. 2.2 keys has not changed in value, its refined that has.

Someone else can probably clarify/ correct me

Thanks for the input.

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