Currency prices are WRONG

[Exaeta]

Backpack.tf is causing a decline in item prices because the currencies are priced incorrectly.

 

Keys have, for quite some time, traded in the $1.60 to roughly $1.80 range on exchanges with high liquidity and low fees. Thus, the key prices on sites like marketplace.tf and steam community market are wrong.

 

Ultimately, the issue is that backpack.tf is including the trading fees on high-fee sites like marketplace.tf and steam market in the key value calculation, but this is wrong. When trading fees are accounted for, you get similar prices on 1%-fee exchanges like dispenser, 10%-fee exchanges like marketplace.tf, and 15%+ on steam market. (even accounting for fees, a "steam dollar" is only worth around $0.80 real dollars because of the hoops and fees one has to go through to convert it into real, hard currency in the bank)

 

So people see that things are sold for "X dollars" and assume that the price in keys is way too high, when really it's the keys that are tanking. So they adjust the key price down, which leads to less trades (because uneducated buyers aren't valuing keys correctly)

 

For example, if an item sells for $500 on marketplace, that means a buyer paid around 250 keys right? Wrong! 250 keys can be bought for less because you don't actually have to buy keys at the high prices of marketplace.tf, which more experienced traders know. Assuming a price of $1.70 per key, that brings the item up to 294 key in actual value, which is around where most sellers will list the item, but many traders are not educated and think that it's overpriced because they assume 1 key = $2 or whatever marketplace.tf is currently selling them for.

 

The price of ref is also inflated on marketplace.tf because of the seller monopoly on who can sell ref there. Just because some people buy keys at $2.50 from valve does not make keys worth that much on the open market (keyword: open).

Pricing currency based on sales on marketplace.tf is wrong. Prices should use a service like dispenser.tf which has a 1% trading fee (when combined with a bitcoin exchange like GDax). I can buy some amount of bitcoin with GDAX, deposit it on dispenser.tf, and buy keys at a much lower price than the backpack.tf price in a very short period of time with negligible trading fees. Ideally the prices should reflect that of whatever service has the lowest trading fees, as there the buy and sell prices are closest together (for example, $1.65 and $1.70 on dispenser.tf right now, with only a 1% trading fee).

[Torb]

2 hours ago, Exaeta said:

For example, if an item sells for $500 on marketplace, that means a buyer paid around 250 keys right? Wrong! 250 keys can be bought for less because you don't actually have to buy keys at the high prices of marketplace.tf, which more experienced traders know. Assuming a price of $1.70 per key, that brings the item up to 294 key in actual value, which is around where most sellers will list the item, but many traders are not educated and think that it's overpriced because they assume 1 key = $2 or whatever marketplace.tf is currently selling them for.

 

 

Another similar arguement: A car shouldn't be worth anything when i can steal one for free

[42isTooShort]

So nearly everything you state is incorrect... I mean, your thought process is correct, you have just made several incorrect assumptions. I don't feel like rebutting all, but here are some wave tops. 

 

Where are you buying keys for $1.60. I know you mention dispenser, but buying with bitcoin is not very common (I say that as someone that trades with Bitcoin whenever I can) and therefor doesn't really fit into the purpose of the site, to provide common value across the board.

If a trade is done directly form one to another through paypal, than the key is valued at what it would cost someone to buy it directly, through paypal (typically about $1.80).

If someone wants to use a CC though (like using mp.tf or SCM) than there are fees associated with that, outside of the trading community. The key cost more there due to convenience. 

Ref value on this site is not set by what they sell for on marketplace.tf. It is accually one of the rules that you can't use them as evidence as people try to price suggest ref based on mp.tf sales.

 

Overall your post really seems like an ad for dispenser.tf?

[3.50]

I can take a key and sell it for ~$1.95 on marketplace instantly, getting me ~$1.75 with almost zero effort or wait.  If I can get that price for it with almost zero effort or time, it's definitely worth that much.  Anyone selling for less probably has a good reason for accepting less.  Keys currently are at $1.82 according to this site (which uses an inexact method using refined metal:key ratio to determine key value due to some coding quirks; they know it's inexact, but it can't be fixed without a complete coding overhaul of the whole site). 

 

That's like 4% off.  I'm reasonably happy with that degree of precision.

 

Also, SCM key prices and ref. cash prices have zero impact on backpack.tf key values.

[LeROY]

On 6/10/2018 at 1:16 AM, Exaeta said:

For example, if an item sells for $500 on marketplace, that means a buyer paid around 250 keys right? Wrong! 250 keys can be bought for less because you don't actually have to buy keys at the high prices of marketplace.tf, which more experienced traders know. Assuming a price of $1.70 per key, that brings the item up to 294 key in actual value, which is around where most sellers will list the item, but many traders are not educated and think that it's overpriced because they assume 1 key = $2 or whatever marketplace.tf is currently selling them for.

 

If an item sells for $500 on marketplace, doesnt that mean an uneducated buyer THINKS he paid around 250 keys? While he in fact paid 294 keys in actual value(according to your statement)

 

How can anyone think its overpriced if they THINK theyre paying 44 keys LESS then.. -your math value

 

Keys are currently valued at 1.82 in bp.tf

 

I dont get your math, statements, thought process, conclusions or point