Ulysses Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Okay, let's try to apply basic economics here. Key is equal to (currently) ~29 ref. Since keys are an dominant entity in the market (excluding the possibility that a foreign entity that might equalize the value) , shouldn't Ref prices go higher as key prices drop? Since you know, they're inversely proportional and all. School me into this new economy i got myself into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott Bakula Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 The big thing to realize is that while keys are dropping in price in refined, their value has remained stable. The reason for this is because the key's value is tied to the value of the US dollar, not that of refined. This does mean that keys lowering in refined makes for an increase in value for refined. However, we're still dealing with minute percentages of increases, so we won't see refined actually raise a cent in value until a larger drop occurs. Think of it like this: Say a Key is $1.80. If a key is worth 30 refined, than a refined is worth 1/30th of $1.80, or $0.06. If the key drops in value to 28 refined, then the refined is worth 1/28th of $1.80, which is $0.064, rounded to $0.06. So, it will take a somewhat large change in the Key/Refined ratio to warrant a change in the value of refined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3.50 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Key prices are not dropping. Lots of people are saying that, and it's wrong. Keys' value has not changed significantly. See https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6 What is happening is that metal is deflating and rising in value. Perhaps temporarily, perhaps not. Valve just shut down thousands of idling accounts, which were dumping tons of metal into the economy and causing severe inflation for free items. As a result of idle farms, metal value had been artificially driven down for a long time. This influence has now been removed, and any item whose value is tied to weekly drops is now experiencing an increase in value. That means metal, weapons, and craft hats. This is also not particularly anything to get excited or worried about. The distinction between "key prices falling" and "metal value rising" is actually fairly important. It's not just semantics. Key prices falling would affect every item in the game, potentially destabilize the entire economy, and probably cause mass panic from the top down. Metal prices rising has an extremely minimal impact on anyone--you get what, 10 weekly drops that can be crafted into 5 scrap, which is worth 2-3 cents...so even if metal value doubles, it just means everyone gets an extra 2-3 cents in item value per week. That's like a dollar in a year, and no one should really be too excited about that. The value of your free item drops that metal comes from is just so low that even doubling or tripling metal value will just make the economy as a whole go "meh". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lockbot Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 Market crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fire ̷̨●̷̨° Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 3.50 is exactly correct. The Idle Bot Farms were creating a influx of metal driving the price down. Now that one of the big bot farms has either decided to go offline or Valve has shut them down, Refine metal will become more scarce driving the price back up. What we are seeing now is Key prices dropping in Refine but the price of Refine on the site has not yet been updated. As 3.50 pointed out real world dollar value of the key on Marketplace has not changed. However, if you look at the price of Refine on Marketplace: https://marketplace.tf/items/5002;6 the price has increased recently from $0.07 to $0.09 in the past couple days. Once the price of Refine is increased on bp.tf to reflect the new value everything will be back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandma's cookies Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 I don't know sh*t about economics all I want to know is if this is a market crash possibility, predicting conservatively, how far away is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RED265 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, grandma's cookies said: I don't know sh*t about economics all I want to know is if this is a market crash possibility, predicting conservatively, how far away is it? There is no chance of a market crash, long story short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grandma's cookies Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 39 minutes ago, RED265 said: There is no chance of a market crash, long story short thank you, someone who can finally clear that up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVENNEN123 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 10 hours ago, 3.50 said: Key prices are not dropping. Lots of people are saying that, and it's wrong. Keys' value has not changed significantly. See https://marketplace.tf/items/5021;6 What is happening is that metal is deflating and rising in value. Perhaps temporarily, perhaps not. Valve just shut down thousands of idling accounts, which were dumping tons of metal into the economy and causing severe inflation for free items. As a result of idle farms, metal value had been artificially driven down for a long time. This influence has now been removed, and any item whose value is tied to weekly drops is now experiencing an increase in value. That means metal, weapons, and craft hats. This is also not particularly anything to get excited or worried about. The distinction between "key prices falling" and "metal value rising" is actually fairly important. It's not just semantics. Key prices falling would affect every item in the game, potentially destabilize the entire economy, and probably cause mass panic from the top down. Metal prices rising has an extremely minimal impact on anyone--you get what, 10 weekly drops that can be crafted into 5 scrap, which is worth 2-3 cents...so even if metal value doubles, it just means everyone gets an extra 2-3 cents in item value per week. That's like a dollar in a year, and no one should really be too excited about that. The value of your free item drops that metal comes from is just so low that even doubling or tripling metal value will just make the economy as a whole go "meh". Yes, agreed. The one thing I dont get however is, shouldnt the keys FINALLY be stable at ~35 ref. Since with the metal stock we have had put keys that high, and the ref stopped flowing ~ but its not like the ref disapears? The prices should just stop right there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RED265 Posted February 27, 2018 Share Posted February 27, 2018 1 hour ago, SVENNEN123 said: Yes, agreed. The one thing I dont get however is, shouldnt the keys FINALLY be stable at ~35 ref. Since with the metal stock we have had put keys that high, and the ref stopped flowing ~ but its not like the ref disapears? The prices should just stop right there? Ppl who buy and introduce keys to the market? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVENNEN123 Posted February 28, 2018 Share Posted February 28, 2018 On 2018-02-27 at 2:39 PM, RED265 said: Ppl who buy and introduce keys to the market? Well, some people do buy keys to trade and some do it for cases (buy from people who bought them too) so this should add itself out. But thats not why this is happening, its because of ref and not keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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