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Keys are dropping


PizzaPalz

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This is the market crash I've been fearing, closer than ever. Keys are built on community value, and if the key becomes so heavily devalued in the eyes of the community that it's worthless, then the market will crash. It's an economy built on nothing but suggestion and pricing. If the key falls, and goes back to being low ref counts, everything drops with it. It's coming, it's strongly possible that it's here already, pull out while you can. Don't buy keys, don't sell unusuals.

If you want some proof that we're at the top of a bubble, and that all we can do is go down, look no further than the 2007-8 financial crisis as an example. Lots of thing built on nothing. There's a storm brewing and it's coming hard folks.

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1 hour ago, Lockbot said:

This is the market crash I've been fearing, closer than ever. Keys are built on community value, and if the key becomes so heavily devalued in the eyes of the community that it's worthless, then the market will crash. It's an economy built on nothing but suggestion and pricing. If the key falls, and goes back to being low ref counts, everything drops with it. It's coming, it's strongly possible that it's here already, pull out while you can. Don't buy keys, don't sell unusuals.

If you want some proof that we're at the top of a bubble, and that all we can do is go down, look no further than the 2007-8 financial crisis as an example. Lots of thing built on nothing. There's a storm brewing and it's coming hard folks.

 

No. No. No.

 

Keys becoming worth less refined does not in any way mean a crash. A key's value is tied to the US dollar, not refined. What a change like this means is simply that refined's value is going up and will have better purchasing power when jumping into the key-based part of Tf2's economy (and vice-versa).

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39 minutes ago, Scott Bakula said:

 

No. No. No.

 

Keys becoming worth less refined does not in any way mean a crash. A key's value is tied to the US dollar, not refined. What a change like this means is simply that refined's value is going up and will have better purchasing power when jumping into the key-based part of Tf2's economy (and vice-versa).

 

This is very very true.

 

If anything, one could suspect craft hats and whatnot to go down to maybe 1 ref due to the monetary value of ref increasing now that these Russians don't have bots.

 

Don't expect something TOO crazy however, the weapons are still in circulation, it's just that it's going to take a good amount of weapons out of the FUTURE market.

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1 minute ago, HyperToe™ said:

 

If anything, one could suspect craft hats and whatnot to go down to maybe 1 ref due to the monetary value of ref increasing now that these Russians don't have bots.

Nope, you've misunderstood something.

 

Metal and craft hats are basically the same thing, and neither one's value is tied to real-world money in the way that keys are. 

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YES! YES!

 

In all seriousness, this was a well-needed deflation. The prices of keys were way too high for free-to-plays to find the game appealing to play. I had a thread similar to this months, maybe a year ago, in which I discussed the dropping of keys as well. In the early days of 2011-2012, a key was 2 refined each if I recall correctly, and the average weapon drop rate was about twelve weapons a week. A piece of refined is 18 weapons to make, assuming you got class-compatible weapons to craft with. Again, assuming you got the right class weapons to make metal with, you'd be making a key once every 3 weeks to a month. With the current prices we have, we can multiply the normal 36 weapons by 37, (of which I may or may not be right, I really don't know so I apologize in advance) which would equal 1332 weapons in total. That would take 25.545272005 months, which rounds approximately to 2 years, a month and a half, if not longer because we assume that we get class compatible weapons. So yes, I agree, this is a great drop and I hope it drops even further along with the amount of bots.

 

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2 minutes ago, Alen said:

The prices of keys were way too high for free-to-plays to find the game appealing to play.

Call me silly but, I always played a game based on whether or not I found it enjoyable.....not to look to turn a profit while doing so. :wub:

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2 hours ago, Lockbot said:

This is the market crash I've been fearing, closer than ever. Keys are built on community value, and if the key becomes so heavily devalued in the eyes of the community that it's worthless, then the market will crash. It's an economy built on nothing but suggestion and pricing. If the key falls, and goes back to being low ref counts, everything drops with it. It's coming, it's strongly possible that it's here already, pull out while you can. Don't buy keys, don't sell unusuals.

If you want some proof that we're at the top of a bubble, and that all we can do is go down, look no further than the 2007-8 financial crisis as an example. Lots of thing built on nothing. There's a storm brewing and it's coming hard folks.

Alr buddy this is nothing like 2008 and pretending like you understand the economic situation just makes people scared and more likely to sabotage an economy

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50 minutes ago, 3.50 said:

Nope, you've misunderstood something.

 

Metal and craft hats are basically the same thing, and neither one's value is tied to real-world money in the way that keys are. 

 

Then why are certain craft hats 1.11 ref versus 1.33 ref?

 

Exactly.

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39 minutes ago, Mrs TS said:

 

Call me silly but, I always played a game based on whether or not I found it enjoyable.....not to look to turn a profit while doing so. :wub:

You're silly! Who would ever think to play a game to have fun?! that idea sounds preposterous to me

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54 minutes ago, HyperToe™ said:

 

Then why are certain craft hats 1.11 ref versus 1.33 ref?

 

Exactly.

the ones worth 1.33 aren't craft hats anymore then, craft hats are the cheapest craftable cosmetics available (the ones worth 1.11)

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1 hour ago, The Waffler said:

Alr buddy this is nothing like 2008 and pretending like you understand the economic situation just makes people scared and more likely to sabotage an economy

he must have never heard of a self-fulfilling prophecy (pretty basic behavioral economics for you kids at home) 

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1 hour ago, HyperToe™ said:

 

Then why are certain craft hats 1.11 ref versus 1.33 ref?

 

Exactly.

Congratulations, you've successfully overwhelmed my ability to tell if you're joking or serious.

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This is some pretty big stuff here. Sellers are at about 30 ref right now. If a good suggestion pops up keys could drop 7-8 ref in price. Probably the largest price drop i've seen keys do in my time trading. 

 

I just don't know weather to call this good or bad. I'm not too smart in the deeper aspects of the economy.

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On 26.02.2018 at 4:14 AM, Vrakos Anthrakir said:

the ones worth 1.33 aren't craft hats anymore then, craft hats are the cheapest craftable cosmetics available (the ones worth 1.11)

How the price of craft hats is being determined? $0.1 converted to ref per hat or what?

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