The first Backpack.tf "article"

[Kimika-chan]

This is an experiment to see what kind of feedback I'll get on this article. 

Thanks.

EDIT:

This a potential first to this. http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/60713-backpacktf-articles/

 

Article: Determining whether an unusual is overpriced / underpriced or not 

 

#requestedbyErik.

 

 

Well. since Erik requested this and I wanted to make an article here I am.

 

It is often times hard to tell if an unusual is overpriced or not. I'm here to make a quick guide to check to see whether your unusual is overpriced or not. 

So. here I go.

 

 

Tip #1: 

 

Knowing what is good and knowing what is bad.

 

If the hat looks like crap. Then it probably is crap.

If an effect looks like crap. Then it probably is crap.

 

If a hat looks like crap and the effect looks like crap and its priced really high

Hint: Its probably overpriced.

lets look at an example of this.

 

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Fruit%20Shoot/Tradable/Craftable/12

 

We'll take a look at this hat.

 

First off we can tell that its a fruit shoot. Lets think of all the other hats out there you can get for this price.

 

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Anger/Tradable/Craftable/12<< anger. Much better looking hat. < btw this is overpiced too. I'll get into that later.

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Cold%20Killer/Tradable/Craftable/12<< Same case as anger.

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Trophy%20Belt/Tradable/Craftable/12< same case as the 2 above.

 

So why in the world would anyone pay 80 keys for a massed flies fruit shoot when they can get hats that looks much better than it for much cheaper?

This is a clear indication that this unusual is overpriced.

 

 

Tip #2

 

Comparing other effects.

 

If you don't know much about the market often times comparing different effects on the same unusual hat can lead you to see if a hat is overpriced or not.

 

 

As you can see here. Compared to the good effects like "burning, scorching, etc We can see "overclocked" which in terms of effects isn't too great being higher than these two effects that are much more desirable. It's pretty easy to see here that the overclocked prince tavish crown is overpriced.

 

You can get a general sense of what unusual effects are high or low here.

http://backpack.tf/effects

 

You can get a general sense of what unusual hats are high or low here.

http://backpack.tf/unusuals

 

 

Tip #3: 

 

 

A lot of time "rare" hats tend to be overpriced/underpriced because they don't sell for a long time and the market changes.

Checking the time when it was last suggested can give you a good sense of what the unusual might be worth.

 

 

A lot of the times collectors buy hats for prices that are just beyond imagination and hence the unusual gets priced really high

Then these collectors just cash out or something so the unusual they own gets put back on market.

 

Watch out for these. These unusuals can be overpriced most of the time because they were priced off collectors sale which are really high and due to the change in market are just simply not worth what they used to be.

 

You might be able to sell these unusuals but you're going to have to know/find the right collector who would be willing to pay the amount other collectors did.

 

 

 

WARNING: JUST BECAUSE AN UNUSUAL IS INDATE /=/ mean it cannot be overpriced.

 

 

Tip #4: 

 

You can check other sellers to see if the hat you own isn't great.

 

Usually if the hat has multiple sellers for lower than the suggested price. It probably isn't worth what its priced at.

Herp a derp. Nothing really said to be here

 

In that case its probably overpriced :^)

You can always check tf2outpost or backpack.tf classifieds to see who else is selling that hat.

 

Tip #5

 

You can check to see if the unusual has a buy order.

 

Most of the times if the unusual has a lot of buy orders by a lot of different users that are near the same price at a decent discount 

You can tell that the unusual is fairly price suggested or that the unusual isn't overpriced.

 

nobody makes buyorders for overpriced hats unless they are exceptionally low.

 

but be wary that very low buy orders does not = overpriced. 

 

 

Tip #6 

 

Themed hats.

They are usually overpriced because someone calls a theme and they tend to be overpriced or they have forced themes 

 

https://backpack.tf/stats/Unusual/Hive%20Minder/Tradable/Craftable/12

 

Sure themed but 80 keys? Nah. 

Hats with themes tend to be hard sells either way because you have to find somebody who actually wants to buy the hat soley for the theme. 

 

Either way its overpriced. Old prices. #referbacktorule#2

 

 

 

Tip #6: Experience.

We

 

To be completely honest. I think this is the best and hardest part you'll have to come and realize.

 

Seeing an unusual is overpriced or not is best to learn through experience.

Overpriced hats don't sell well unless you're extremely lucky.

The more you sell and buy hats the more you'll learn what hats are good vs what hats are bad.

This goes back to Tip #1 but I find this to be one of the best tips.

 

 

 

Well as a first "article" here it is. 

If you liked it feel free to like it.

If you have any questions feel free to comment here 

Also any feedback criticism etc that would help me improve this would be great. Thanks.

[Gent♥]

I personally think a lot of this is bad advice, and additionally you shouldn't be implying you're affiliated with bp.tf when you're not, officially. This is premature.

 

Tip 1 is highly personal - and the example you cite is overpriced just because it's highly outdated

Tip 2 only applies to outdated hats. Which is a much more prominent problem, clearly.
Tip 3 is what is implied above.
Tip 4 just about holds water.
Tip 5 is bad, most buy orders are either terribly low or based on a script, which the buyer will often turn down.
Tip 6 is about the most egregious example. Mainly because it's such a personal opinion. In the example you site, the unusual is in-date.
Another example is here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5900f91bc4404565732a877c, which sold for CASH at that value. Theming is in many cases valid, and it's bad practice to consider all themes forced.

 

Basically a lot of what's here condenses down to "outdated prices are outdated."

[Kimika-chan]

I personally think a lot of this is bad advice, and additionally you shouldn't be implying you're affiliated with bp.tf when you're not, officially. This is premature.

 

Tip 1 is highly personal - and the example you sites is overpriced just because it's highly outdated

Tip 2 only applies to outdated hats. Which is a much more prominent problem, clearly.

Tip 3 is what is implies above.

Tip 4 just about holds water.

Tip 5 is bad, most buy orders are either terribly low or based on a script, which the buyer will often turn down.

Tip 6 is about the most egregious example. Mainly because it's such a personal opinion. In the example you site, the unusual is in-date.

Another example is here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5900f91bc4404565732a877c, which sold of CASH at that value. Theming is in many cases valid, and it's bad practice to consider all themes forced.

 

Basically a lot of what's here condenses down to "outdated prices are outdated."

 

In all honesty. I respect that opinion and I agree with the points that you mentioned. Maybe I'm not quite right guy to be making these kind of articles just yet. You are probably one of the most experienced people I know so I'll take your word on most of the points you make.

 

I don't know where if I mentioned being affiliated with backpack.tf or if implied it or not but my apologies if I did because I'm not. I'll edit wherever I mentioned it.

I definitely could expand on each point to make it better. Thanks for the feedback. I'll try to see more feedback I can get. Thanks gent. Appreciate it.

 

EDIT: If you don't mind any tips you could provide to tell whether an unusual is overpriced or not would greatly help too.

[Kevin the Chicken God]

I personally think a lot of this is bad advice, and additionally you shouldn't be implying you're affiliated with bp.tf when you're not, officially. This is premature.

 

Tip 1 is highly personal - and the example you cite is overpriced just because it's highly outdated

Tip 2 only applies to outdated hats. Which is a much more prominent problem, clearly.

Tip 3 is what is implied above.

Tip 4 just about holds water.

Tip 5 is bad, most buy orders are either terribly low or based on a script, which the buyer will often turn down.

Tip 6 is about the most egregious example. Mainly because it's such a personal opinion. In the example you site, the unusual is in-date.

Another example is here https://backpack.tf/suggestion/5900f91bc4404565732a877c, which sold for CASH at that value. Theming is in many cases valid, and it's bad practice to consider all themes forced.

 

Basically a lot of what's here condenses down to "outdated prices are outdated."

I agree with what you're saying, but I didn't really see the purpose of the article as being 'if condition x is met, then the unusual is overpriced'. It was just more of a guide to the determinants of what could cause an overpriced unusual, and I think the article hits on most of the common reasons

[eXuberant]

I don't see myself disagreeing to any of these points tho I feel like you should make it clear that overpriced hats still have the potential to flip for profit if you get it at the right price ( but 9/10 times you will be called a scammer for offering low ) and I've actually traded up from 10 keys to about 3000ish keys over a year and a half and I've used many of those tips when I started quickbuying (I learnt them via my mistakes ) my first huge loss was with a green black hole pyroes boron beanie ( priced at 58.5 at that time ) I thought it was a super rare hat (it was (1/2) I paid 30 pure and 30 in a first gen unusual , I failed to compare it to other better effects like sunbeams ,scorching etc ,this was also perhaps the best mistake as every time I tried to quicksell it for 30% off traders gave me reasons as to why they would not do it ( and it sort of includes quite a few mentioned in this post )

[apollothelion]

Honestly. You probably hit most points about it. You've made my life easier for when someone asks me why I wouldn't take an offer or blah.

 

Thanks Memela

 

Edit: would be good to maybe have more detail about indate overpriced not just outdated

[λngelღмander]

Just one thing, I would change the title of the thread from "first backpack.tf article" which is very vague and doesnt tell the reader what is inside to "BPTF article #1: How to tell if something is overpriced" or something of the like. Otherwise who would ever click on it and actually find out what was here?

[c0Rn!x]

Hey, just leaving my opinion here. There has been enough said about the content so I point out something else:

 

I expected a bit more formal language for an article. Maybe it is because I have higher expectations or I am used to articles that are written usually formal or both. As an actual advice article though it would

be still better to leave out those "informal expressions" or shortcut sentences.

 

Okay one point about the content:

There are missing cases /examples in your article about underpriced unusuals. It may be clear for overpriced, but in the same case it doesn't mean it's for underpriced as well.

 

Also another point:

 

A missing introduction how an unusual is being valued AND priced (for example effect, hat, release date and length, drop rate, market supply and demand, amount of hats in collector's backpacks, amount/rarity in general etc. pp.). I have seen comments mentioning that many factors determine a price. This would help other people tremendously.

 

But it is an article to start with.