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Changing B/O only drops for unusual pricing.


Moose

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This is the ruling guarding it currently: 

UPDATING THE B/O RULE (has already been incorporated in the op)

 

When we switched currencies, I made a post saying we would allow pricing off b/os for a short time to fix inflated hats. We haven't fixed all inflated hats, but it has been a while, so I decided to make an addendum to what is and isn't allowed. As always, these rules are not 100% firm. Use common sense to guide you. This is meant to be a guide to help you make good suggestions.

  • B/Os alone can only be used to drop the value on a hat if all three of these criteria are met
  • ​​You are dropping the value on the hat (you cannot raise the value on a hat based on a b/o
  • You must drop the mean value of the hat by at least 15%. (i.e. You shouldn't be dropping a hat from 31 to 30 keys based on a b/o. You SHOULD be dropping the value on a hat from 100 to 50 if 50 can't sell in a month).
  • The trade must have a reasonable time to mature (and must be reasonably bumped). What is reasonable varies from hat to hat. A good rule of thumb is to go by roughly 25 keys per week. So a trade for a hat <25 keys in value must be up for at least a week. A trade for a hat <50 keys must be up for at least 2 weeks. A trade for a hat <75 keys must be up for at least 3 weeks. For all other hats, the trade must be up for at least a month in order to price them based off the b/o.
You may be wondering where 15% is coming from. That has always been the degree of uncertainty I have had in my head regarding the accuracy of our prices. In the past, when hats got a price, the site would automatically add a 15% range around the mean. Remarkably, I've still stuck to that belief even if we are now way past that pricing system.

 

 

I feel like 1 month is too little of a time frame to drop an unusual worth over 200 keys, especially when the user is asking for money.

 

These are some examples of recent suggestions that are based off an unsold for a month or just over based on cash.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5dbee0e2cad3cbb542a3a- Last Suggestion was accepted 23 days ago.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d736c440450df36f73e6- User has 1000 key B/O on outpost but is asking for less in cash and hasn't removed it from marketplace.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d902c440450d9d537eaa- Marketplace seller has been up for just over 1 month.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d496c440454ba407f4a9- Has a sale @ the suggested price.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d5a30e2cad01da4022f1- Been up for several months.

 

 

There isn't many people who would pay that amount of money within a month of it being up for those unusuals. A decent cash amount can be harder to sell than a pure sale.

1 month time frame just feels like it isn't long enough for the sellers to mature.

 

Additionally those users would most likely get several offers above their cash sale price, which would somewhat counter the B/O drop.

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Yes, yes and yes.

 

I didn't think this through BUT:

Less than 200: 1 month

200-500: 2 months

500+: 3 months

 

Multiplier of 1.5 if cash?

 

Thoughts?

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Yes, yes and yes.

 

I didn't think this through BUT:

Less than 200: 1 month

200-500: 2 months

500+: 3 months

 

Multiplier of 1.5 if cash?

 

Thoughts?

 

I agree with this.

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I generally dont like using cash sellers for BO drops but an additional downside here is that cash exchange rates on mptf are higher than those for paypal as far as I am aware, meaning that for a 500$ item you generally need to sell ~550$ worth of keys in order to buy it. Just putting that out here as the counterargument would be that anyone can just sell their keys and buy it there at any given point. That alone can make someone hesistant to buy from mptf (have experienced so myself; offered someone paypal and they told me I could buy from mptf at the higher multiplier value, which would have cost me ~200$ more which I was not willing to do. Wanted to buy keys but he sold it before i had the chance to.)
 

As an addition to the above, that means that a user has to be willing to either do trust-related trades in order to get a purchase done, or spend real-life money (which many will be hesistant to do I would presume), thus severely limiting the audience in my eyes. As far as common trading points go, I think the average trader isnt properly represented here as the audience for cash trades is way less volumuous than the virtual currency traders.

 

While in some cases the evidence may be overwhelming, I'd be hesistant to make this a common practice, much less to simply ignore any higher sales in such a case.

 

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This is the ruling guarding it currently: 

 

 

I feel like 1 month is too little of a time frame to drop an unusual worth over 200 keys, especially when the user is asking for money.

 

These are some examples of recent suggestions that are based off an unsold for a month or just over based on cash.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5dbee0e2cad3cbb542a3a- Last Suggestion was accepted 23 days ago.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d736c440450df36f73e6- User has 1000 key B/O on outpost but is asking for less in cash and hasn't removed it from marketplace.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d902c440450d9d537eaa- Marketplace seller has been up for just over 1 month.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d496c440454ba407f4a9- Has a sale @ the suggested price.

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d5a30e2cad01da4022f1- Been up for several months.

 

 

There isn't many people who would pay that amount of money within a month of it being up for those unusuals. A decent cash amount can be harder to sell than a pure sale.

1 month time frame just feels like it isn't long enough for the sellers to mature.

 

Additionally those users would most likely get several offers above their cash sale price, which would somewhat counter the B/O drop.

 

 

snip

 

 

I won't go into all the issues related to what happens if b/o drops become the norm and how it would negatively impact trading here, but suffice it to say that the mods are all aware of issues related to b/o drops and consecutive b/o drops on the same hat. It's something we talk about constantly (i.e. the mod comments currently in the burning executioner suggestion). Just remember one thing here. Every hat has a price it would sell for in a day. These high tiers are not selling not just because they have a high value. I would argue the MAIN reason they aren't selling is that their prices are way too inflated. Significant drops to more appropriate values and these hats will start to sell again. We have seen this for years.

 

Remember, our prices are supposed to be the value of items in pure. And also remember that while it sucks for sellers on hats to have their hat dropped, it sucks just as much for buyers of inflated hats who use backpack.tf as a guide. The idea of "better than the current price" has some merit in certain situations, especially when the necessary change is >40%. Let's go down the examples you gave, one by one.

 

Example 1:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5dbee0e2cad3cbb542a3a

Tetsuwan bought his hat in October. Listed it at 360 keys. Then lowered to 320 keys for a month. Now is selling for 270 keys. Our price is 360-500. He has had ample time to sell it / find a buyer. He has listed on backpack.tf and outpost. Put quite simply, that hat is not worth more than 270 keys pure and it should absolutely not be priced 360-500.

 

Example 2:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d736c440450df36f73e6

Not an appropriate suggestion. B/O drop based on a marketplace seller alone and that involves a lot of cash - cash most people don't have sitting around to buy 1 hat. U

 

Example 3:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d902c440450d9d537eaa

Unsold on scrap.tf at 230. Unsold for a month at 320. Seller at 245 on marketplace. Our suggested price is 410-460. 245 is CLEARLY better than the current price and might still be too high. The price absolutely needs to change.

 

Example 4:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d496c440454ba407f4a9

Drop based on two sales (one an item sale and one a cash sale). Long standing seller at 430 keys on marketplace and another seller at 450 in classifieds. I think there's no disputing this suggestion.

 

Example 5:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d5a30e2cad01da4022f1

This is probably the only suggestion that's in doubt and could go either way. It's a high enough tier item that a drop based only on a cash b/o is really not appropriate. However, a long standing seller at 550 on top of the separate seller at 450 really suggests that the pure value is probably no more than 440. 440 is certainly much better than 750.

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I won't go into all the issues related to what happens if b/o drops become the norm and how it would negatively impact trading here, but suffice it to say that the mods are all aware of issues related to b/o drops and consecutive b/o drops on the same hat. It's something we talk about constantly (i.e. the mod comments currently in the burning executioner suggestion). Just remember one thing here. Every hat has a price it would sell for in a day. These high tiers are not selling not just because they have a high value. I would argue the MAIN reason they aren't selling is that their prices are way too inflated. Significant drops to more appropriate values and these hats will start to sell again. We have seen this for years.

 

Remember, our prices are supposed to be the value of items in pure. And also remember that while it sucks for sellers on hats to have their hat dropped, it sucks just as much for buyers of inflated hats who use backpack.tf as a guide. The idea of "better than the current price" has some merit in certain situations, especially when the necessary change is >40%. Let's go down the examples you gave, one by one.

 

Example 1:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5dbee0e2cad3cbb542a3a

Tetsuwan bought his hat in October. Listed it at 360 keys. Then lowered to 320 keys for a month. Now is selling for 270 keys. Our price is 360-500. He has had ample time to sell it / find a buyer. He has listed on backpack.tf and outpost. Put quite simply, that hat is not worth more than 270 keys pure and it should absolutely not be priced 360-500.

 

Example 2:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d736c440450df36f73e6

Not an appropriate suggestion. B/O drop based on a marketplace seller alone and that involves a lot of cash - cash most people don't have sitting around to buy 1 hat. U

 

Example 3:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d902c440450d9d537eaa

Unsold on scrap.tf at 230. Unsold for a month at 320. Seller at 245 on marketplace. Our suggested price is 410-460. 245 is CLEARLY better than the current price and might still be too high. The price absolutely needs to change.

 

Example 4:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d496c440454ba407f4a9

Drop based on two sales (one an item sale and one a cash sale). Long standing seller at 430 keys on marketplace and another seller at 450 in classifieds. I think there's no disputing this suggestion.

 

Example 5:

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/58e5d5a30e2cad01da4022f1

This is probably the only suggestion that's in doubt and could go either way. It's a high enough tier item that a drop based only on a cash b/o is really not appropriate. However, a long standing seller at 550 on top of the separate seller at 450 really suggests that the pure value is probably no more than 440. 440 is certainly much better than 750.

Thanks for the reply :P

With several sellers for less I can see why the unusuals would be in need of a drop.

 

What about in some cases where a person would only be selling for pure/cash, with other sellers around the current bp.tf value. Would item offers that exceed the pure and or bp.tf price counter the unusual B/O drop?

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