Refined Metal Price/Pricing (+ Marketplace.tf)

[Salvage]

I wanted to make this thread for a while now and after some time I finally decided to do so, I created this to mainly discuss about this topic in a mature way, something that just isn't possible on a suggestion dropping Refined Metal.

 

Since Hex originally created his suggestion trying to raise Refined Metal using Marketplace.tf its validness as primary proof has been discussed ever since, I decided to collect a few points which justify ignoring it ( at least in my opinion):

 

Keys are constantly raising which obviously leads to Refined Metal dropping, the only thing that supports a raise at all are sales on Marketplace.tf @0.12, which happen for a multitude of reasons, which should also make it invalid to use as proof:

 

(1) The main reason people buy refined from the site is because it is the easiest and safest way to buy it, you can buy via whatever suits you best and there is never any type of fee (at least not to my knowledge), it's the total opposite of having to add a trader to wait for their response only to do a very slow and risky PayPal trade, with the only reason being a 0.02$ discount which is often lost due to fees anyways.

 

TL;DR: People are willing to pay more on Marketplace.tf as it is more convenient than any other way of buying refined.

 

(2) Marketplace.tf has a very limited pool of sellers which leads to barely to no competition, therefore a healthy economy just can't exist on the site, people can list their metal for as much as they like and they will sell it eventually as there is no reason to sell for less, there is a huge demand for refined on Marketplace.tf (as shown by the sole amount of sales) yet there is very little demand for it outside of Marketplace.tf (which leads to it dropping, as sellers outside of marketplace.tf need to have very good prices to have any success in selling.

 

TL;DR: If Marketplace.tf would give the opportunity to sell refined to more people it would logically make sense to consider it usable as proof, however, if that'd ever happen, (which is unlikely) there will be competition on the site which will eventually lead to the market adjusting to the key price.

 

(3) Backpack.tf is trying to capture the value of what items are commonly sold for among the community, with Marketplace.tf allowing few to sell their sales shouldn't be considered "among the community" (as it is only a select few which are able to sell on the site) which should make them invalid to use, I think the sellers @0.10$ (and even the 0.09$ sellers) struggling to sell any refined clearly show that 0.12$ can definitely not be considered a value for which Refined commonly sells for among the community. Even 0.10$ will probably end up being high, but the sellers did receive a few offers and the sales @0.10$ on marketplace.tf do support it so it is justified (for now). Logically 0.08$ - 0.09$ is probably the most accurate value, comparing the key/ref price to the price keys commonly sell for in money and the little success of the sellers @0.09, but the proof just isn't there.

 

TL;DR: Using Marketplace.tf as proof would go against the very basic idea of backpack.tf.

As polar pointed out that is not the case since refined suggestions should be (and are) handled very differently from regular suggestions.

 

I hope I was able to justify my point and got it across well, any kind of opinion/argument is greatly appreciated and I will reply to any and all serious (counter)arguments.

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

It's good to have a place to have this discussion, keeps it from cluttering the suggestions with arguments. Thanks.

[polar]

Just going to leave what I posted on the last suggestion below. I generally agree except with the last point - "Using Marketplace.tf as proof would go against the very basic idea of backpack.tf." In reality, refined suggestions ARE different from all other kinds of suggestions and need to be considered unique suggestions. You can't just say that marketplace.tf is the prime seller of ref for cash, so it should be taken as valid evidence just like common sale points for other items. Refined dollar value is the basis for all other items, and that must be taken into consideration when assessing its value. More below----

 

 

Refined metal suggestions cannot be considered the same way as any other suggestion. Because the dollar value on every time is based on this, it's all the more reason to consider very carefully the difference between the intrinsic value on an item and what it gets bought and sold for. It's most important here to do our best to identify the intrinsic value. What do I mean by that? Let's consider a few different things.

(1) The vast majority of cash transactions happen in keys which trade at 1.80-1.90 USD, putting refined solidly around 0.09 USD. The difference isn't a small one. Refined moves very slowly. It's easily possible to move thousands of keys at 1.90 per key before moving even a few hundred refined at 0.10 per ref. When considering the intrinsic dollar value of all items, you have to keep these values in consideration - that the intrinsic refined value of all items is around 0.09 USD per ref.

(2) Because refined moves so slowly, it's just not worth it from a time and energy perspective for highly reputable people to trade in refined. Refined moves most commonly on highly reputable sites. People are willing to pay more for the convenience and added security. This additional value added is not part of the intrinsic value of the item itself and it certainly is not a value that gets transferred to all other items in the tf2 community, even keys.

Yes, it would be best if we could base dollar values off keys, but that's just not possible with they way the website is hard-coded. So we have to work with what we have to give our best possible estimate of intrinsic value here. Your sellers at 0.11 USD seem to have had little to no luck. In fact, the only comment in the last three months from your sellers at 0.11+ is from someone willing to sell at 0.08. All things considered, refined is easily available from multiple sources at 0.10 and I don't see a need to change its value.

 

EDIT: Leaving an edit here for the proof provided in the new suggestion. There aren't many reputable refined sellers in total, but out of the sellers that are around, the vast majority are selling with little to no luck at 0.10. And there are the two listed at 0.09. Given the intrinsic value on refined is solidly at 0.09 based on key values and that 0.09-0.10 appear to be common trade points among most key sellers not being taxed by a third-party website, 0.09-0.10 better captures refined's intrinsic value than 0.10 flat.

[Jessica]

 

snip

 

And it can't be hard coded differently to reflect that our economy is now based off keys? People such as myself paying money for premium to support the site, so why can't those funds be used to look into updating major parts of the website instead of wasting resources on changing how the premium search works (I preferred the old one u could see the levels of the items without hovering over each and every item) or how the history of an item looks etc.

 

Not trying to sound like a cunt here or anything, I just feel we need to move into the future not stay in the past. Also another thing why do buds still appear on the front page, I'm sure we've all gathered by now that nobody uses them as currency anymore.

 

Now the only thing that sucks about this ref thing tho, I gotta listen to all the babies crying on the unusual server about how their BP went down cause they care so much about bp value than whats actually inside it lol.

[polar]

why can't those funds be used to look into updating major parts of the website instead of wasting resources on changing how the premium search works (I preferred the old one u could see the levels of the items without hovering over each and every item) or how the history of an item looks etc.

 

Something about having to start everything from scratch in order to make the change from ref to keys. We've asked the devs multiple times about it.

[Jessica]

Something about having to start everything from scratch in order to make the change from ref to keys. We've asked the devs multiple times about it.

Ah okay, thank you for the information very interesting!

[dyna]

Just asking, do suggestion votes matter ?

 

377 votes down. There was not enough proof in that suggestion for .09$. Mods have applied their logic , and accepted the suggestion. If you are applying your logic and not proofs and votes, then why not close the voting system.

 

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57c859e5c440457a274d7aeb

[NotWarlizard]

Something about having to start everything from scratch in order to make the change from ref to keys. We've asked the devs multiple times about it.

 

I'm a bit lost, how would ref to keys be different to the current form? As in a normal hat would be worth say 0.05 keys instead of 1 refined?

[polar]

I'm a bit lost, how would ref to keys be different to the current form? As in a normal hat would be worth say 0.05 keys instead of 1 refined?

 

Honestly, I have no idea. I don't know what the devs are talking about most of the time. I just give my opinion and share those of the community with them, and they try to do what they can. 

[Mag!cGuy]

Just asking, do suggestion votes matter ?

 

377 votes down. There was not enough proof in that suggestion for .09$. Mods have applied their logic , and accepted the suggestion. If you are applying your logic and not proofs and votes, then why not close the voting system.

 

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57c859e5c440457a274d7aeb

You do not understand what votes are for. People do not decide whether a suggestion is valid or not. Mods do. The votes are solely a way to assess the user's accuracy, something you can find on the user's profile. It's a way to know whether the user is good at evaluating suggestions. It's rather fortunate that votes aren't taken into consideration. Let's take an unusual that is suggested to raise. People don't want it to raise, because they want to afford it, so they vote the suggestion down. Yet, the proof is there. Should the mod decline the suggestion because of people's personal bias? Absolutely not.

Not only that, but most people would not have the required experience or knowledge to have the responsibility of deciding whether a suggestion is valid or not, even with the best intention. Pricing mods have such status for many reasons, including experience and deep understanding of backpack.tf's core logic concerning pricing (something I myself have a hard time with sometimes).

 

As for your second point: this very topic is here to explain, in a comprehensive manner by both Salvage and polar, why the suggestion of Salvage was accepted. And you are posting on this very topic that there are no reasons it should have been accepted. I don't quite understand to be honest. You're free to disagree with what they said, of course, but not say that the mods accepted from nothing.

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

You do not understand what votes are for. People do not decide whether a suggestion is valid or not. Mods do. The votes are solely a way to assess the user's accuracy, something you can find on the user's profile. It's a way to know whether the user is good at evaluating suggestions. It's rather fortunate that votes aren't taken into consideration.

 

That's not really true. Yes, moderator judgement can override the votes, but 90+% of the time it doesn't. In situations where mods are ambivalent, votes can and do play a role in the decision. Pricing is estimation of value based on what evidence we can find about the market, there is no actual absolute correct or incorrect price for anything, each item is worth what people want to trade it for. There are situations where there are two suggestions up for the same thing countering each other that are close, or basically the same but with different ranges, and either could be roughly accurate - in those kinda scenarios, votes can be considered when deciding which price point to go with. If mods choose to go against the votes, they/we generally need to be prepared to justify why.

[Salvage]

 

Just going to leave what I posted on the last suggestion below. I generally agree except with the last point - "Using Marketplace.tf as proof would go against the very basic idea of backpack.tf." In reality, refined suggestions ARE different from all other kinds of suggestions and need to be considered unique suggestions. You can't just say that marketplace.tf is the prime seller of ref for cash, so it should be taken as valid evidence just like common sale points for other items. Refined dollar value is the basis for all other items, and that must be taken into consideration when assessing its value.

 

I understand your point and find it to be very reasonable, striked out the third point because of that, thanks for your input!

 

 

 

And it can't be hard coded differently to reflect that our economy is now based off keys? People such as myself paying money for premium to support the site, so why can't those funds be used to look into updating major parts of the website instead of wasting resources on changing how the premium search works (I preferred the old one u could see the levels of the items without hovering over each and every item) or how the history of an item looks etc.

 

Not trying to sound like a cunt here or anything, I just feel we need to move into the future not stay in the past. Also another thing why do buds still appear on the front page, I'm sure we've all gathered by now that nobody uses them as currency anymore.

 

Now the only thing that sucks about this ref thing tho, I gotta listen to all the babies crying on the unusual server about how their BP went down cause they care so much about bp value than whats actually inside it lol.

 

I agree with all of that (especially with the third one, see my suggestion on refined for examples, people that bring up no valid arguments whatsoever get upvoted because they are "countering" the suggestion yet comments with actual arguments get downvoted because they are supporting the drop), thanks for your input!

 

 

 

Just asking, do suggestion votes matter ?

 

377 votes down. There was not enough proof in that suggestion for .09$. Mods have applied their logic , and accepted the suggestion. If you are applying your logic and not proofs and votes, then why not close the voting system.

 

Not really, at least if proper proof is provided, especially in a case like this were it is obvious that the suggestion gets downvoted as people don't want their backpack value to drop, there was more than enough proof for 0.09$ to be justified, the lack of success of the sellers @0.10$ might've even made 0.09$ flat possible. However there are cases where votes matter (see Teeny's comment for examples where votes do matter).

[Mag!cGuy]

That's not really true. Yes, moderator judgement can override the votes, but 90+% of the time it doesn't. In situations where mods are ambivalent, votes can and do play a role in the decision. Pricing is estimation of value based on what evidence we can find about the market, there is no actual absolute correct or incorrect price for anything, each item is worth what people want to trade it for. There are situations where there are two suggestions up for the same thing countering each other that are close, or basically the same but with different ranges, and either could be roughly accurate - in those kinda scenarios, votes can be considered when deciding which price point to go with. If mods choose to go against the votes, they/we generally need to be prepared to justify why.

And I understand that, but that's one particular case. In any case, suggestions have to be accepted based on proofs, and if the proof is absolutely there, but people downvote it by 90% for weird motives, there is no reason you guys do not accept the suggestion.

I was not saying you could accepy/refuse suggestions out of thin air, but that it is clear people's votes do not have the final say in most cases. And as I explained, that's way better like it, the amount of people who vote based on what they would personnaly want is huge, particulary for the suggestions that are the "most popular". Point in case: this metal refined suggestion, where most people just didn't want their bp value dropped. I often see perfect suggestions not having 100% of upvotes, which is a proof of that.

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

Well sure, but you said that votes are soley there to assess user accuracy and I'm just letting you know that's not the case. They do play a role in mod decision making.

[polar]

Just asking, do suggestion votes matter ?

 

377 votes down. There was not enough proof in that suggestion for .09$. Mods have applied their logic , and accepted the suggestion. If you are applying your logic and not proofs and votes, then why not close the voting system.

 

http://backpack.tf/suggestion/57c859e5c440457a274d7aeb

 

In situations where mods go against the votes (which are rare), mods are required to give an explanation for going against the vote. Votes are taken into consideration in every suggestion. They come into play most often in 50-50 situations where the mods aren't necessarily sure whether to accept a suggestion or not. In those situations, we always go with the votes.

 

In this suggestion itself, you're making it sound as if everyone voted against the suggestion. That's not actually the case. The votes were essentially split 50-50. If voting was split 30-70, it's much more likely that I would have rejected the suggestion.

[=TNW= Maximus™]

In situations where mods go against the votes (which are rare), mods are required to give an explanation for going against the vote. Votes are taken into consideration in every suggestion. They come into play most often in 50-50 situations where the mods aren't necessarily sure whether to accept a suggestion or not. In those situations, we always go with the votes.

 

In this suggestion itself, you're making it sound as if everyone voted against the suggestion. That's not actually the case. The votes were essentially split 50-50. If voting was split 30-70, it's much more likely that I would have rejected the suggestion.

This^^

 

Also, I would say that currency suggestions, ie. ref suggestions, generally have a negative response from the community. Nobody wants to see the economy go down and many times, people don't read the suggestion and blindly downvote. Another example of ~50% votes - http://backpack.tf/suggestion/5720f46b866747196100c6ea

[Salvage]

https://backpack.tf/suggestion/57fed1a783de6b3561694e5e

[Yoz]

 

If mods choose to go against the votes, they/we generally need to be prepared to justify why.

So, I need a detailed explanation of this: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/585eb220e3387761b1664a60

I'm not going to read any Salvage's posts (and his friends too) since he has his own interests in dropping the price, I'm asking price moderators to explain the reason of accepting a currency suggestion (without a single decent proof) when people voted against it.

[Salvage]

 

So, I need a detailed explanation of this: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/585eb220e3387761b1664a60

I'm not going to read any Salvage's posts (and his friends too) since he has his own interests in dropping the price, I'm asking price moderators to explain the reason of accepting a currency suggestion (without a single decent proof) when people voted against it.

 

Maybe read the comment left by Puddilicious? It explains why it's accepted, votes on Refined Metal are generally even less important than votes on normal suggestions as people (like you) don't really understand how Refined Metal is priced and why it drops, those people tend to downvote any Refined Metal suggestion solely because they are "destroying the community" while they aren't doing that in the slighest.

[Yoz]

Don't understand how? Downvote? Destroying the community?

What are you talking about? I'll underline the most important words in my previous post (for blinds).

[Teeny Tiny Cat]

 

 

So, I need a detailed explanation of this: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/585eb220e3387761b1664a60

I'm not going to read any Salvage's posts (and his friends too) since he has his own interests in dropping the price, I'm asking price moderators to explain the reason of accepting a currency suggestion (without a single decent proof) when people voted against it.

 

 

Not sure why you're quoting me, here. Puddington posted his reasoning on the suggestion.

[polar]

 

 

So, I need a detailed explanation of this: http://backpack.tf/suggestion/585eb220e3387761b1664a60

I'm not going to read any Salvage's posts (and his friends too) since he has his own interests in dropping the price, I'm asking price moderators to explain the reason of accepting a currency suggestion (without a single decent proof) when people voted against it.

 

 

Read my post earlier in the thread. Pretty much sums up everything regarding the suggestion you linked. Suggestion itself had sellers at both 6 and 7 cents.

[Yoz]

Teeny Tiny Cat, not to be rude, but you've said that mods should be ready to explain their decisions and I still don't see an explanation. That's why I'm quoting you. Or do you mean this?

All of them still have refined in stock and are still selling for 0.07 USD each. This looks good now.

 

Will you accept my suggestion of 3 successfull sellers @$0.10 each regardless of people's choice (like Puddilicious did) then?