Blatch Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 TL;DR counter response: Pink Taco has unboxed two old effects from Salvaged #50. Thus, first-gen effects are at least plausible to occur in post-#25 crates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distinctively Vincent Posted December 14, 2013 Share Posted December 14, 2013 Edit: Also, the most numerous unusuals were the ones released from the first christmas crate not the first hats released in unusual form. Interesting. Hey look! An excuse to copy and paste an old analysis I had done a ways back. It was originally put together in response to someone claiming that the first festive hats had an overall increased chance of being unusual, for context. Numbers provided are just under a year old, before 3rd gen effects were introduced. "The massive numbers on the festive hats are entirely due to the Festive Winter Crate- it's no coincidence the top 16 hats in unusual numbers all come from it. Unusuals uncrated from it would ONLY be of the hats it contained. I'm not sure if people just went especially crazy over it, if the rumour at the time that it had an increased chance of producing unusuals was true, or if it was due to the free key everyone was given, but the unusual numbers of its hats absolutely exploded, substantially overtaking the unusual numbers of every previous hat. I don't know if there's any way to get stats of unusuals immediately after the event to prove it, but it can demonstrated indirectly through a quick analysis of the unusual numbers lumped by effect. Since this all went down before the new effects were introduced, the classic effects should be overwhelming against other hats from a smiilar time period while new effects remain similar in numbers. I grabbed 5 random festive hats and 5 random hats around since the beginning of unusuals. Numbers pulled from backpack.tf, sorted most to least. Hats from the winter festive crate are *'d. Total Existing Unusuals with New Effects: Sola Topi- 264 Yellow Belt- 261 Glengarry Bonnet- 258 German Gonzila*- 252 Industrial Festivizer*- 246 Stovepipe- 244 Festive Tree*- 240 Crown*- 239 Carouser's Capotain- 237 Pyromancer*- 226 Total Existing Unusuals with Halloween Effects Pyromancer*- 43 Capotain- 43 Festive Tree*- 39 Crown*- 38 Sola Topi- 36 Industrial Festivizer*- 36 Glengarry Bonnet- 35 German Gonzila*- 31 Yellow Belt- 31 Stovepipe- 33 Total Existing Unusuals with Classic Effects: Festive Tree*- 458 Pyromancer*- 457 Crown*- 427 Industrial Festivizer*- 426 German Gonzila*- 418 Capotain- 301 Stovepipe- 294 Yellow Belt- 293 Sola Topi- 287 Glengarry Bonnet- 286 No noticeable trends on new and halloween effects between the festive and old hats and all fairly close numbers, while the classic effects have a difference of over a hundred between the lowest festive hat and the largest old, nonfestive hat. And all of the old hats should theoretically have a headstart on the festive hats in classic effects, having been around for an additional 2.5 months." Probably made a statician cry, but I think it gets the idea across roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base64 Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 -snip Edit: What I mean is I don't believe that Crate 25+ can give non-zero/significant Old Effects. http://tf2finance.com/effects/ The algorithm you proposed will not yield a linear relationship between [Effect Series A / Effect Series B] and [Crate Series A Unboxed / Crate Series B Unboxed] across time. Which means I agree with i dont believe there has been a single old effect unboxed from the newer crates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corpfox Posted December 15, 2013 Share Posted December 15, 2013 http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3097578 Perhaps this could be an interesting read. It can actually prove that 1st gen effects are unboxable from crates past #25 and that newer effects aren't unboxable from older crates. But anyway, here's my 2 cents I should probably consider getting a life. i.e. crate #s are associated to a specific "effect pool", and only crates released after the effects' release would yield them. However, the reason for which recent crates unbox the newer effects more frequently is unknown (they still can unbox older ones, but that happens rarely). I'd agree with this chart. Unboxed three unusuals from #9s that are 1st tier effects and three more unusuals from Fall crates that are new effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Prince Posted December 17, 2013 Share Posted December 17, 2013 unboxed a disco beat down little buddy yesterday i only uncrated 76 sold damage dealt and got 3 free key's each time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 17, 2013 Author Share Posted December 17, 2013 Unusuals uncrated from it would ONLY be of the hats it contained. That would do it. TL;DR counter response: Pink Taco has unboxed two old effects from Salvaged #50. Thus, first-gen effects are at least plausible to occur in post-#25 crates. Possible the coding for salvadge/select crates is different somehow. I think the evidence of Vincent's "Scortched crate" theory is strong. http://backpack.tf/stats/97/5/14 http://backpack.tf/stats/178/5/14 http://backpack.tf/stats/180/5/17 These three have the same pattern of a rapid group of gen 1 additions at that time. Edit: Why is the coffin kit no longer unboxing in unusual? More gen 1 http://backpack.tf/stats/378/5/14 http://backpack.tf/stats/139/5/13 Now for second gen effects http://backpack.tf/stats/671/5/29 http://backpack.tf/stats/378/5/35 - Two months ago http://backpack.tf/stats/378/5/31 - 4 months ago Two months is actually a long time in between appearances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
base64 Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I think the evidence of Vincent's "Scortched crate" theory is strong. Sigh... All (or almost all) Scorched Crates contain Old Effects and it is a fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 Sigh... All (or almost all) Scorched Crates contain Old Effects and it is a fact. Wait....so you have access to the unboxing data of all crates, and you've been holding out on us this whole time :3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That graph confuses the hell out of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 That graph confuses the hell out of me. Its total unboxes since October 2010. The shaded region represents the percentage of effects unboxed. Mannco Tech bundle is gen2 effects btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Wait....so you have access to the unboxing data of all crates, and you've been holding out on us this whole time :3 No kidding. All the while we are having this discusion and he has data. Anything else going on people should know about (I will understand if you want a donation to the site, just leave a "wink emoticon" but ..... I only have keys). Its total unboxes since October 2010. The shaded region represents the percentage of effects unboxed. Mannco Tech bundle is gen2 effects btw. Little hard to get that when gen 1 is blue and chart has blue background so..yeah it just looks like a big orange wave..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 No kidding. All the while we are having this discusion and he has data. Anything else going on people should know about (I will understand if you want a donation to the site, just leave a "wink emoticon" but ..... I only have keys). Little hard to get that when gen 1 is blue and chart has blue background so..yeah it just looks like a big orange wave..... the blue background is the effect unbox rate, its not a background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distinctively Vincent Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 All (or almost all) Scorched Crates contain Old Effects Surprised I had missed that. I had gotten it into my head that it was the single known exception with a mix of both, but come to think of it, I've only heard of people come forward to mention that they got old effects out of it and never that newer effects had come out. That seems to make things strongly consistent then, with crates seemingly having only a single generation of effects associated with each. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Surprised I had missed that. I had gotten it into my head that it was the single known exception with a mix of both, but come to think of it, I've only heard of people come forward to mention that they got old effects out of it and never that newer effects had come out. That seems to make things strongly consistent then, with crates seemingly having only a single generation of effects associated with each. I wonder why. Edit: in theory valve could do it anytime they want to like to make more money. How come they didn't anounce it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 I wonder why. Edit: in theory valve could do it anytime they want to like to make more money. How come they didn't anounce it? Because if people knew they had no chance of unboxing a scorching/burning hat then they probably wouldn't unbox. Would you choose to go on a mass unboxing spree if more then likely the best unusual you're going to get is 2 buds? So if they announced that 1st gen effects are only from early crates people would hoard 1st gen crates, and unbox those. Unfortunately those are more expensive and relatively rare; so people would have less crates to unbox. Less crates to unbox = fewer keys sold, which means less money for valve. Also, valve isn't exactly transparent.... First they were very unclear as to whether pp trading/mm'g would actually get you trade banned or if it was just a fluke. Secondly, the Unusual Noh/Hazmat/Coffin Kit/etc... Thirdly, Unusual unbox rate, valve (well i guess its not valve) lists it as 1% (or doesn't say at all) Fourthy, ....I can't think of anything else of the top of my head, but there are definitely more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 - snip - !!!Well valve could just allow 1 st gen to be unboxed now (never 2nd gen again)!!! THIS IS TO ANNOUNCE TO EVERYONE!! DO NOT UNBOX ANY POST #25 CRATE WITH THE DREAM OF GETTING A BURNING ANYTHING. YOU WILL NOT....EVER. Also, allowing 1st gen to unbox (to a lesser rate) in current crates would be good for current gen effects as less would be available by comparison and would keep people unboxing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted December 18, 2013 Share Posted December 18, 2013 !!!Well valve could just allow 1 st gen to be unboxed now (never 2nd gen again)!!! THIS IS TO ANNOUNCE TO EVERYONE!! DO NOT UNBOX ANY POST #25 CRATE WITH THE DREAM OF GETTING A BURNING ANYTHING. YOU WILL NOT....EVER. Also, allowing 1st gen to unbox (to a lesser rate) in current crates would be good for current gen effects as less would be available by comparison and would keep people unboxing more. Except, i think valve realizes that some effects need to remain stable and strong for unusual trading to survive. By limiting the number of 1st gen effects valve has given people something to work towards, and also given a false impression that unusuals can and will retain their value, ultimately strengthening valve's position as a key seller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 18, 2013 Author Share Posted December 18, 2013 Except, i think valve realizes that some effects need to remain stable and strong for unusual trading to survive. By limiting the number of 1st gen effects valve has given people something to work towards, and also given a false impression that unusuals can and will retain their value, ultimately strengthening valve's position as a key seller. I disagree. The normal progression for product introduction is high value at first and slowely the price declines or rises if its particularly popular. In the case of recent effects they have crashed after just a month really. That is a disincentive to mass unboxing. I might unbox a bunch of naughty crates but not for unusuals, instead for the strange weapons to be profited from. Last year kick started my trading career when I unboxed a sf amby. In reality they make less as a lot of guys might get their keys, from the steam market, to unbox older crates. Other than old effects there is no reason to unbox them. Valve makes more from selling the special key then tax from the market so.... When it comes to striving for a hat it should not be some old rare effect but a new rare effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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