Jump to content

Effect unbox rate.


F  CHARLIE

Recommended Posts

I'm definitely not disputing your evidence. There's a chance you are correct! I just don't know if the hypothesis has enough data to say conclusively one way or the other. It's still interesting though, and gives light to the fact that 1st gen unusuals will always increase in price as those crates no longer drop and become more expensive as they become less common.

 

You seem logical so here. The only time you want to unbox is when the Expected Value of that unboxing is a net plus. The only time that is happening is when a crate is first able to be unlocked and that is only if enough of its contents are desirable as to be expected to sell for at least a key. This does happen in a short window. That window used to be longer when key traded at 2.44. That was before I started trading so I have little feel for what trading was like.

 

At a certain point any crate becomes worthless as unboxing is a tremendous loss. This begs the question, why is any older crate worth anything at all? It is because the unboxer is trying to mitigate their losses as best as they can. Now you can see that, for the most part only the older crates are worth anything (especially the crates 1 -25). Also, scarcity only effects value if the item is desired.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 92
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm definitely not disputing your evidence. There's a chance you are correct! I just don't know if the hypothesis has enough data to say conclusively one way or the other. It's still interesting though, and gives light to the fact that 1st gen unusuals will always increase in price as those crates no longer drop and become more expensive as they become less common.

 

I too would prefer less anecdotal evidence and more systematic investigation.  

 

If we have reason to believe that the majority of crates opened at present are "new", couldn't we do something similar to what Charlie has done?

(I don't know how one would verify this assumption.  This website does seem to have a lot of stats available though)

 

Assuming the vast majority of people open recently released crates, if we sampled a collection of relatively new hats (such that, given our first assumption it would be safe to treat all unboxes from the sample as coming from new crates), we could calculate the odds of observing the distribution we find given the hypothesis that the distribution should be split 50/50 between new and old effects.

 

Right?   

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I too would prefer less anecdotal evidence and more systematic investigation.

 

If we have reason to believe that the majority of crates opened at present are "new", couldn't we do something similar to what Charlie has done?

(I don't know how one would verify this assumption. This website does seem to have a lot of stats available though)

 

Assuming the vast majority of people open recently released crates, if we sampled a collection of relatively new hats (such that, given our first assumption it would be safe to treat all unboxes from the sample as coming from new crates), we could calculate the odds of observing the distribution we find given the hypothesis that the distribution should be split 50/50 between new and old effects.

 

Right?

 

First, there 3 generations of effects. Second, that is what I showed with the excel sheet. As I explained, I counted the effects for hats released after the release of the 3rd gen effects so that whatever the distrobution was its a true reflection of which generation unboxes at what rate. If all generations could be unboxed then they would generally be divided evenly but they aren't. 1st gen 12% 2nd gen 35% 3rd gen 60%. In the least this prooves that valve has a govener on the percent of effects from each generation could be unboxed. Whilethis possible the comminuity does not ascribe to that theory.

 

Many believe that 1 st gen is all that comes early crates. This is false. If it were true 1st gen would still be the most numerous as it would have been unboxed at the same rate as 2nd gen when those were being unboxed. The evidence does not support this model.

 

There is evidence to support what has been said in this thread. Look at the volumes gor the earliest hats released. You will see that they have the highest number of 1st gen effects of any hat. This is consistant with what woifi has stated as it is logical to find the highest volume of them in hats that were made unboxable before crate 26.

 

Imo the only crates that anyone should mass unbox is crates 1 - 25. Not even 42 regardless of its return. There is diminishing demand for second gen effects so why would you spend all those keys just to end up with those.

 

Edit: there is a statistical way to prove this but you need to pay me as it is too much work

Link to comment
Share on other sites

First, there 3 generations of effects. Second, that is what I showed with the excel sheet. As I explained, I counted the effects for hats released after the release of the 3rd gen effects so that whatever the distrobution was its a true reflection of which generation unboxes at what rate. If all generations could be unboxed then they would generally be divided evenly but they aren't. 1st gen 12% 2nd gen 35% 3rd gen 60%. In the least this prooves that valve has a govener on the percent of effects from each generation could be unboxed. Whilethis possible the comminuity does not ascribe to that theory.

 

Many believe that 1 st gen is all that comes early crates. This is false. If it were true 1st gen would still be the most numerous as it would have been unboxed at the same rate as 2nd gen when those were being unboxed. The evidence does not support this model.

 

There is evidence to support what has been said in this thread. Look at the volumes gor the earliest hats released. You will see that they have the highest number of 1st gen effects of any hat. This is consistant with what woifi has stated as it is logical to find the highest volume of them in hats that were made unboxable before crate 26.

 

Imo the only crates that anyone should mass unbox is crates 1 - 25. Not even 42 regardless of its return. There is diminishing demand for second gen effects so why would you spend all those keys just to end up with those.

 

Edit: there is a statistical way to prove this but you need to pay me as it is too much work

You're still missing the validation of an essential assumption - That the unboxes you sampled all came from the same population (i.e the same "crate generation"). 

 

If this isn't the case, no conclusions can be drawn about a given crate's probability of yielding a given unusual effect.  

 

I wouldn't feel comfortable paying for statistical analysis from someone who committed the gambler's fallacy not 1 page ago   :P

 

For the record, I don't disagree that the numbers suggests a relationship exists between crate series and unusual unboxes.  I just think the data should be approached systematically, especially given the raw frequencies that people are able to gather.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're still missing the validation of an essential assumption - That the unboxes you sampled all came from the same population (i.e the same "crate generation").

 

If this isn't the case, no conclusions can be drawn about a given crate's probability of yielding a given unusual effect.

 

I wouldn't feel comfortable paying for statistical analysis from someone who committed the gambler's fallacy not 1 page ago :P

 

For the record, I don't disagree that the numbers suggests a relationship exists between crate series and unusual unboxes. I just think the data should be approached systematically, especially given the raw frequencies that people are able to gather.

 

Ummm. Those hats, in unusual form, can be unboxed from any crate but thier unique version can only be unboxed from certain crates.I choose them based on when valve allowed them to be unboxed in unusual form so that I could have their rates be an example of hats unboxed in a specific time period thus making their rates true to current unbox percentages.

 

Look at those hats. They were all released aftet the robo event calmed down so it shows that people are still unboxing robo crates.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ummm. Those hats, in unusual form, can be unboxed from any crate but thier unique version can only be unboxed from certain crates.I choose them based on when valve allowed them to be unboxed in unusual form so that I could have their rates be an example of hats unboxed in a specific time period thus making their rates true to current unbox percentages.

 

Look at those hats. They were all released aftet the robo event calmed down so it shows that people are still unboxing robo crates.

 

The bold is what's important here. 

 

In order to draw a conclusion based on these findings, we need to know the makeup of our sample. 

 

While its highly unlikely, imagine that 80% of your sample consisted of unusuals unboxed from gen1 crates.  If that were the case, we've done little to prove that generation 1 crates unbox gen1 effects at greater rates than newer crates.  At the very least, we would need a comparable figure estimating the percentage of gen1 effects that come from crates other than gen1. 

 

If we can demonstrate that the vast majority of recent unusual unboxes originate from recent series (i.e. not gen 1), then we're in business.  

I have no idea how one might be able to verify this assumption, but there do seem to be a lot of statistics available through whatever api sites like this use. 

 

Edit:  On second thought, to truly demonstrate that gen1 crates have a higher probability of dropping gen1 effects, we really would need two samples - one from gen1 unboxes and one from not-gen1 unboxes. With one sample (homogeneous generation) , the best we can do is demonstrate that the drop rate is not evenly distributed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just show me one gen1 effect unusual that isn't from crate #1-#25. I unboxed all mine since october 2012 from crate #9 basically.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What we need is a database in which people log which crates they use, and if they get an unusual/s, what effect they are.

Haha, would probably prove useful   :P

 

Despite the fact there are so many different combinations of effects and hats, there are only 3 "generations" of effects, so samples sizes wouldn't need to be all that large to identify statistically significant deviations from a chosen distribution.

 

 

Just show me one gen1 effect unusual that isn't from crate #1-#25. I unboxed all mine since october 2012 from crate #9 basically.

 

Wish I had any unusual to show!  

In this thread discussing unusual unbox rates and I don't even have an unusual.   :ph34r:

 

Again, a cursory glance at the numbers suggest a fairly strong relationship between crate type and effect type, but it would be nice to have more systematic inquiry. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Haha, would probably prove useful   :P

 

Despite the fact there are so many different combinations of effects and hats, there are only 3 "generations" of effects, so samples sizes wouldn't need to be all that large to identify statistically significant deviations from a chosen distribution.

 

 

 

 

Wish I had any unusual to show!  

In this thread discussing unusual unbox rates and I don't even have an unusual.   :ph34r:

 

Again, a cursory glance at the numbers suggest a fairly strong relationship between crate type and effect type, but it would be nice to have more systematic inquiry.

 

I understand how you feel about this but it is somewhat impractical. There are several ways to display further correlation between crate series and gen effects but its laborious. I except this theory not as fact but as likely enough to be true that if I wanted to mass unbox regular crates I would only choose from 1 - 25. I will likely unbox naughty crates but that is not for an unusual. I might do more if we instead come to see that someone did unbox gen 1 effects from crates other than 1 - 25. If that were to happen than a new model would have to be constructed. Valve could also just tell us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 Valve could also just tell us.

According to valve you can still unbox the noh mercy. You cant.

 

It's widely accepted that you can only get 1st gen effects from crate 1-25 and as such i dont believe there has been a single old effect unboxed from the newer crates. If you dont believe it and keep asking for more evidence...etc Then we cant exactly do much for you especially seeing as many people who mass box have already voiced their experience :P

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Religion was widely accepted as true before people got more accurate information. The anecdotes from a few mass unboxers is not sufficient in making such a conclusion. Pretty sure I saw someone unbox a steaming hat from a #71 in the last few weeks anyway. Pretty sure it was a new hat though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Religion was widely accepted as true before people got more accurate information. The anecdotes from a few mass unboxers is not sufficient in making such a conclusion.

 

Difference here is that religion can't be proved and is essentially baseless and can't be tested.

 

The thing is that nearly all mass unboxers i know all tend draw the same conclusion by themselves based on experience so unless you yourself are going to mass unbox first hand it's kind of unjust to repeatedly ask for "evidence" and expect that someone will be able to provide it. Unboxers dont video every unbox session and nor are they expected to.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I understand how you feel about this but it is somewhat impractical. There are several ways to display further correlation between crate series and gen effects but its laborious. I except this theory not as fact but as likely enough to be true that if I wanted to mass unbox regular crates I would only choose from 1 - 25. I will likely unbox naughty crates but that is not for an unusual. I might do more if we instead come to see that someone did unbox gen 1 effects from crates other than 1 - 25. If that were to happen than a new model would have to be constructed. Valve could also just tell us.

I have no doubt that it would be impractical.  

If people didn't already take the Tf2 economy rather seriously, I would consider the idea outright laughable.  

The Tf2 trading scene is surprisingly meticulous though   :D

 

 

Difference here is that religion can't be proved and is essentially baseless and can't be tested.

 

The thing is that nearly all mass unboxers i know all tend draw the same conclusion by themselves based on experience so unless you yourself are going to mass unbox first hand it's kind of unjust to repeatedly ask for "evidence" and expect that someone will be able to provide it. Unboxers dont video every unbox session and nor are they expected to.

 

 

To be clear, I don't think anyone is demanding more evidence, nor does anyone view it as the responsibility of mass unboxers to document their experiences.

 

That being said, the personal experiences of select mass unboxers hardly constitutes convincing evidence (to someone who is skeptical), and this is true for several reasons.

  • People are incredibly poor intuitive statisticians.  This statement is not a critique of anyone's intelligence in particular.  It's a fairly well established fact that, under conditions of uncertainty, people rarely make judgments conforming to probability models/expected value calculations, etc.  
  • Mass unboxers are not isolated from one another.  If one mass unboxer forms an illusory correlation between crate series and unusual effects, its likely that his "finding" will sway other mass unboxers to open exclusively older crates.    
  • In relation to the statement above - Mass unboxers are far more organized than users who open only a few crates at a time.  As a result, the findings of mass unboxers are more visible than their less organized counterparts.  Even though we don't hear about old effects from newer crates, this may be because the people who report unusual unboxes (mass-unboxers) open almost exclusively old crates(akin to a self-fulfilling prophecy).  

Personally, I don't disagree with the conclusion that drop rates are not "random." As someone who values well conducted research (completely unrelated to Tf2, haha), I am merely expressing interest in a designed method of confirming what many already believe to be true.   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Religion was widely accepted as true before people got more accurate information. The anecdotes from a few mass unboxers is not sufficient in making such a conclusion. Pretty sure I saw someone unbox a steaming hat from a #71 in the last few weeks anyway. Pretty sure it was a new hat though.

 

The community accepts this as reasonably true. If you want to validate it or disprove it you will have to do the work yourself. The evidence given simply dismisses the idea that all effects unbox evenly. It does not suggest an alternative theory. I created this thread with goal of pooling knowledge of other traders and admins from this site and have that knowledge become accessible to anyone. That is one of the goals of the site.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The burden of proof is on those who make the unfalsifiable claims. It's not my responsibility to disprove their claims, it's their responsibility to prove what they're saying; proof that I'm not seeing much of. Whether it's "widely accepted" or not doesn't reflect on the truth.

 

I'm not suggesting all effects unbox evenly, in fact it seems pretty clear that's not the case. Even if you look across that board at only first gen effects, it appears clear that steaming, smoking, bubbling, flies, etc, all unbox at a much greater rate than the higher tier effects. I don't know if this is true though; it's just based off the # of X hats in public backpacks

 

I saw a steaming hat come from a crate #71, so that blows the hypothesis out of the water from the onset.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw a steaming hat come from a crate #71, so that blows the hypothesis out of the water from the onset.

Prove it.

 

For the last time. I don't care if you believe this or not.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw a steaming hat come from a crate #71, so that blows the hypothesis out of the water from the onset.

 

I'm not suggesting all effects unbox evenly, in fact it seems pretty clear that's not the case. Even if you look across that board at only first gen effects, it appears clear that steaming, smoking, bubbling, flies, etc, all unbox at a much greater rate than the higher tier effects. I don't know if this is true though; it's just based off the # of X hats in public backpacks

 

For the last time. I don't care if you believe this or not.

 

Steaming isnt a first gen effect it's 2nd gen  :P

 

1st gen effects are Burning Flames, Scorching Flames, Sunbeams, Purple/Green Energy, Circling Hearts, Haunted Ghosts, Vivid/Searing Plasma, Flies, Circling Peace/TF Logo, Green/Purple confetti.

 

EDIT: Reason why steaming...etc are unboxed more is because due to the larger player influx since free to play was implemented, many of the uninformed people unbox mainly from crates 25+...etc

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah I never realised, my mistake! I only started playing during the f2p update. am nub

 

 

NP

The only reason to study further is if someone proves that a gen effect was unboxed outside the crate series.  Go get me that proof and I will research further.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a reddit thread about this and it seemed the Scorched Crate could uncrate 1st gen effects. Anyone know how other special crates may have worked?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://forums.steampowered.com/forums/showthread.php?t=3097578

Perhaps this could be an interesting read.

It can actually prove that 1st gen effects are unboxable from crates past #25 and that newer effects aren't unboxable from older crates.

 

But anyway, here's my 2 cents

 

rMkHh.jpg

 

I should probably consider getting a life.

 

i.e. crate #s are associated to a specific "effect pool", and only crates released after the effects' release would yield them. 

However, the reason for which recent crates unbox the newer effects more frequently is unknown (they still can unbox older ones, but that happens rarely).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The "effect pool" hypothesis seems much more plausible than anything else posted so far. Is that chat from personal unboxing?

according to the user, yes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

There was a reddit thread about this and it seemed the Scorched Crate could uncrate 1st gen effects. Anyone know how other special crates may have worked?

I didn't think so. Look at these three hats, all burning, and note the graph of when they came into the game.

http://backpack.tf/stats/322/5/13

http://backpack.tf/stats/313/5/13

http://backpack.tf/stats/337/5/13

The pattern is the same, trailing off when crate 25 stopped dropping, and does not show a spike around the time the scorthed crate was released.

But, looking at these:

http://backpack.tf/stats/184/5/13

http://backpack.tf/stats/393/5/13

http://backpack.tf/stats/48/5/13

You can see all three of them show a bump in numbers during the Pyromania update which happened a year after 25 stopped dropping. It could have something to do with the effect "burning" but I can't look into it now.

 

From all six hats I can say that crates 16, 17, 18 must have been incredibly popular.

 

 

Edit: Also, the most numerous unusuals were the ones released from the first christmas crate not the first hats released in unusual form. Interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...