Woifi The Viking Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Well lets look at some interesting things: 1. Hats do not un-box equally, http://puu.sh/5Dys4.jpg You can clearly see this point by noting how many Masks of the Shaman are in the game and that they still unbox (see new effects). Also, the most numerous Robo Hat (the Leadwear) is fairly close to Cold Killer even tho opening the robo crate only guaranteed a robo effect but should have been distributed evenly and therefore we should see many more Cold Killers. 2. Each Generation is less likely to be Un-boxed as we go forward http://puu.sh/5DBfU.png I sampled those 5 hats and had a count of 116 effect instances once i filtered out Robo effects and Halloween effects. A sample size of 116 is effective and the results speak for them selves. Edit: When I was counting I did not notice whether it was red or blue aces and count them as one effect. Sorry. 1.Shaman is an expection if you never heard of it. So the range for robo hats is 85-127 if stats.tf catches all of them or the same % of all of them. I guess that's just random then, why are there only 4 burning flames tc but 9 scorching? but 4 burning nohs but 9 scorching ones? all random. 2. You don't understand, it's because like 10% of people are unboxing #1-#26 crates. #31 and #42 the crates with the "best" ingredients still give gen2 effects thats why they are still unboxed frequently. And all noobs who are unboxing now their new dropped crates get only new effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 1.Shaman is an expection if you never heard of it. So the range for robo hats is 85-127 if stats.tf catches all of them or the same % of all of them. I guess that's just random then, why are there only 4 burning flames tc but 9 scorching? but 4 burning nohs but 9 scorching ones? all random. 2. You don't understand, it's because like 10% of people are unboxing #1-#26 crates. #31 and #42 the crates with the "best" ingredients still give gen2 effects thats why they are still unboxed frequently. And all noobs who are unboxing now their new dropped crates get only new effects. I accept the idea that new hats unbox at higher rate than older ones. That's fine. No one has ever said that gen 1 and gen 2 effects can not be unboxed from new crates. I also find it interesting that people are unboxing robo crates for those effects even tho the market seemed to not respect them very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I accept the idea that new hats unbox at higher rate than older ones. That's fine. No one has ever said that gen 1 and gen 2 effects can not be unboxed from new crates. I also find it interesting that people are unboxing robo crates for those effects even tho the market seemed to not respect them very much. Robo effects are still worth way more than 2nd gen effects, and some people like them. And I say that right now, that you won't get a gen 1 or 2 effect hat from a new crate. Also all hats have about the same chance of being unboxed, different numbers are only because its all random. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Robo effects are still worth way more than 2nd gen effects, and some people like them. And I say that right now, that you won't get a gen 1 or 2 effect hat from a new crate. Also all hats have about the same chance of being unboxed, different numbers are only because its all random. I dont buy the hat thing. Look at crones dome. There shoukd be many more of them. Cokd killer, etc. These did not increase in number equally. Randomness dictacts that all hats should rise in number at around the same rate unless valve tweeks new hats higher. As I said that news is new to me and as far as I know, valve has not said this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I dont buy the hat thing. Look at crones dome. There shoukd be many more of them. Cokd killer, etc. These did not increase in number equally. Randomness dictacts that all hats should rise in number at around the same rate unless valve tweeks new hats higher. As I said that news is new to me and as far as I know, valve has not said this. Crones dome was added on october 26th 2012, 406 days, 209 hats scanned, ~0.5 hats per day Cold Killer was added on december 20th 2012, 351 days, 184 hats scanned, ~0.5 hats per day Broadband bonnet (average #in existance robo hat) was added on may 17th 2013, 203 days, 102 hats scanned, ~0.5 hats per day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 Just spoke with some experienced unboxers on a trade server, general consensus is that crates #1-#25 get 1st gen effects. Crates #26-#47 get 2nd gen, and the rest are 3rd gen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bakgrund Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I always thought it was random, everyone said so. But now some people say it's not random. WHO TO BELIEVE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SirMillbot Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I dont buy the hat thing. Look at crones dome. There shoukd be many more of them. Cokd killer, etc. These did not increase in number equally. Randomness dictacts that all hats should rise in number at around the same rate unless valve tweeks new hats higher. As I said that news is new to me and as far as I know, valve has not said this. Nothing scientific here , but I was the first to unbox a Miami Nights Crones Dome (opening a summer cooler crate), probably within the first week of those new effects. Of course kept an eye on the unboxing since I was trying to trade it - 5 (same hat and same effect) more were opened within the next few weeks - only 3 more over the last 6 months for a total of 8 so far. Mass unboxing during summer event raised the rate of new effects but after the unboxing rate goes down. Are all effects randomly unboxed? Sunbeams is a first gen effect but there are only 2 of them in existence. But of course it seems multi class or all class unusuals get unboxed at a slower rate anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 6, 2013 Author Share Posted December 6, 2013 Nothing scientific here , but I was the first to unbox a Miami Nights Crones Dome (opening a summer cooler crate), probably within the first week of those new effects. Of course kept an eye on the unboxing since I was trying to trade it - 5 (same hat and same effect) more were opened within the next few weeks - only 3 more over the last 6 months for a total of 8 so far. Mass unboxing during summer event raised the rate of new effects but after the unboxing rate goes down. Are all effects randomly unboxed? Sunbeams is a first gen effect but there are only 2 of them in existence. But of course it seems multi class or all class unusuals get unboxed at a slower rate anyway. Right now I am going with Woifi's statement about both hats and effects. In reality, if you want to unbox you should only ever unbox crates 19 - 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.C.E The Dancing Pyro Posted December 6, 2013 Share Posted December 6, 2013 I always thought it was random, everyone said so. But now some people say it's not random. WHO TO BELIEVE? I thought the same ting to be honest, however I've uncrated a few crates in my time on TF2 and I just wanna know on average how many crates is it till an unusual? Or is it just pure random generation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubei Posted December 7, 2013 Share Posted December 7, 2013 Well who wants to fund me 100,000 keys and 100,000 crates evenly distributed throughout 1-77? I can do this, for hat science! (And profit, since I have to do all the clicking in the inventory menu - gotta make it worth my while.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 Right now I am going with Woifi's statement about both hats and effects. In reality, if you want to unbox you should only ever unbox crates 19 - 25. #9, #13 and #14 are the best. Remember that #19 is worth less now, since the grenade launcher was rereleased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 I thought the same ting to be honest, however I've uncrated a few crates in my time on TF2 and I just wanna know on average how many crates is it till an unusual? Or is it just pure random generation. You have .66% chance to get one which means you would have unbox around 150 to get one. #9, #13 and #14 are the best. Remember that #19 is worth less now, since the grenade launcher was rereleased. I can see 9 being good but I still like 19 - 25 so that there is no chance of getting a unique weapon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I can see 9 being good but I still like 19 - 25 so that there is no chance of getting a unique weapon Well I was speaking about mass unboxes.^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 8, 2013 Author Share Posted December 8, 2013 Well I was speaking about mass unboxes.^^ I am basing this off trade.tf crate analisys and % dissappiontment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted December 8, 2013 Share Posted December 8, 2013 I am basing this off trade.tf crate analisys and % dissappiontment. Dissappointment is meaningless for mass unboxes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nope Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 You have .66% chance to get one which means you would have unbox around 150 to get one. I can see 9 being good but I still like 19 - 25 so that there is no chance of getting a unique weapon Just as a heads up: Crates don't have memories - Each unbox is independent of the one previous. After unboxing 150 crates with a .66% chance of success, you have only around a 63% chance of unboxing at least one unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Where is the evidence for all these claims? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Where is the evidence for all these claims? If it means anything, I unboxed a burning Shako + A Searing Tavish out of crates 7 and 20... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Unfortunately that doesn't mean anything. We need statistical significance with a large sample sizes. 2 hats and effects doesn't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted December 11, 2013 Author Share Posted December 11, 2013 Unfortunately that doesn't mean anything. We need statistical significance with a large sample sizes. 2 hats and effects doesn't cut it. The information I provided does reinforce this theory. There is no proof as that infornation is held by Valve and they have chosen to not confirm this. If I were you I would assume it to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted December 11, 2013 Share Posted December 11, 2013 Ok, here is my two cents: I enjoy unboxing, as such, i have unboxed over 200 keys. I have also been very lucky, unboxing 8 unusuals. For my first 6 unboxes, I used crate #31. These are the unusuals I received from ONLY crate #31: (from approx 150 keys) • Steaming Stormin Normin • Blizzardy Full Metal Drill Hat • Bubbling Horrific Headspliiter • Orbiting Fire Letch's LED • Smoking Fez • Steaming Black Watch Recently, I unboxed much older crates #3-#20. I unboxed 42 keys, and got 2 unusuals: •Searing Tavish Degroot Experience •Burning Steel Shako Also, I frequent a trade server in which several unboxers lurk (these guys do hundreds per year), and they say crates #1-#25 are the only crates you can unbox 1st Gen effects. My unboxing backs this theory up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whopz Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 I'm definitely not disputing your evidence. There's a chance you are correct! I just don't know if the hypothesis has enough data to say conclusively one way or the other. It's still interesting though, and gives light to the fact that 1st gen unusuals will always increase in price as those crates no longer drop and become more expensive as they become less common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grimes Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 Also means that these crates will become very scarce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cedarium Posted December 12, 2013 Share Posted December 12, 2013 The one thing all this has me waiting for is the end, where here are no crates under 26 left. Then, there will be no more gen 1 effects :c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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