Probability of Selling a Item?

[Jigglebutt McSugartits]

We have all been in this situation. You found a item for a massive discount. Like a Pyromancer's Mask which is worth 5 ref for 1 Ref. You instantly trade the person, and get it. Filled with joy. You try to sell it for that 4 Ref profit. But no one wants it. You could hold onto that item for 2 Weeks and no one buys it. You lower the price. Still no one buys it. How could we change this? We add a feature on the pricelist of the item saying the chances of you selling it. Based on Trade.tf Listings and Outpost Listings. Along with Classified Listings. The more trades there are the higher chance you have of selling it. The less the lower chance you have. This could help newer players in a huge way. They could start trading and get a item which they think is a good deal, but it really is just a player getting rid of their item since they can't trade it. This would be hard to implement but it would help the Trading Community in a large way along with newer players as well.

[Weedoof]

...I think I lost you about halfway through that.

 

Are you maybe thinking of something along the lines of being able to see how long an item has been listed for? You can already do that, both on outpost and the classifieds.

For the classifieds you can click how long ago an item was bumped, and it'll show you how long it's been listed for.

Outpost, you just open the trade.

 

If it's something to show the odds of an item being sold at a given price, that's just not feasible. There are too many variables that go into an item, such as any paint it has, how good it looks, how new it is, how recently it was updated if it's a workshop hat, etc, etc, etc. There's really no way to assign a number to its chances of selling like you can a suggested price tag. Blah blah blah Read Mengh's post

[Mengh.]

For one, it's hard to actually predict whether you can sell an item.

Let's list some of the many factors that can affect it.

• How many of that item there are in circulation 
• How many variants of that item that are identical to yours that are in circulation (rarity)
• Purpose
• Whether it can be used in in-game (hat, cosmetic, weapon)
• ^ If yes, what class(es) it can be used by?
• If it is a cosmetic, is it a misc or a hat?
• Can it come in other qualities?
• Is it themed to a certain event?
• Is it marketable upon the Steam Community Market?
• Where can it be obtained?
• Which crates can it be obtained from?
• Odds of getting the item out of the crate? (rarity as well)
• Can it be used for crafting?
• Is the item popular? (e.g Is it often worn on pubs by others?)
• Has the item been praised by some TF2 Youtubers / significant people in the community?
• ^ If yes, how many subscribers / followers do they have and how many are of that willing to / able to buy your item?
• Do you have a Youtube channel / a following? (some people are utter fanboys for what someone might be selling)
• Have you spammed your trade upon a popular TF2 trading group?
• Have you spammed your trade upon SmexyTrading Forums?
• Does it have parts?
• Can it be painted?
• Is it painted?
• Does it look well with another item?
• Does it look well with 2 other items?
• How much are the 2 other items, as well as this item?
• Are there any 'skins' of the weapon you have?
• Is the weapon a part of a set?
• How much does the set cost?
• Does the set have any gameplay buffs?
• Does the set have any gameplay debuffs?
• Price of the item in the last 3 months
• Price of the item in the last 2 months
• Price of the item in the last month
• Backpack.tf price of the item right now
• If you've listed your trade on TF2Outpost
• How regularly you bump your trades
• Whether you have TF2Outpost premium
• Description of your TF2Outpost listing
• Symbols used in the description of your TF2Outpost listing
• Neatness of the symbols used in the description of your TF2Outpost listing
• Colours used in your listing description on TF2Outpost
• If you've listed your trade on Backpack.tf Listings
• How regularly you bump your trades / are on Backpack.tf
• Current sell listings and what price they are selling at
• Amount of sellers at a certain price
• Current buyer listings and what price they are buying at
• Amount of buyers at a certain price
• Whether you have Backpack.tf Donator Status and what tier
• The colour of your name on Backpack.tf
• Whether you have TF2Outpost premium
• If you've listed your trade on Trade.tf
• What time you've listed your trade.tf listing (bump isn't a thing, but listing it does popup)
• Whether you have '| trade.tf' in your name
• If you've listed your trade on Bazaar.tf
• How regularly you bump your trades (every 15-30 minutes)
• Whether you've setted up a Buy Now trade for it
• Whether you have Bazaar.tf Donator Status and what tier
• If you've listed your trade in your name
• Trade server you're on, if you are advertising on a trade server
• Date the item was released - 'newer items have more hype'
• Any updates to the item you have
• Whether there are any modifications upon the item
• Whether you've spammed your friends into buying the item
• Whether you've spammed trade offers at multiple people on TF2Outpost
• If you've listed your trade on TF2TP
• If you've listed your trade on /r/tf2trade
• Description of your listing on /r/tf2trade
• Whether you have trade holds / mobile authentication

And the list is endless.

 

Really, you can't really put a proper probability upon whether an item would sell. It's just luck and a being-in-the-right-time-right-place situation where users choose to buy an item if they so choose to.

[Gasoline]

TL;DR: idk how to check for unsold pls halp

 

There's a time tag on everything. If a quicksale (I mean at least 20% off, not cutting 5 keys then call that qs) has been up for more than 1 week (item<100 keys) stay away, more than 2 week (>100k) stay away, more than 3 weeks? Well, go and create a suggestion to drop the price, free rep yaya