keys/refined prices

[m0lten no monitor]

so, reading through the latest hotly debated key price suggestion.  interesting stuff.   i think there is one major misunderstanding in the tf2 market.  it is not keys that are going up.  it is refined that is going down.    what good is refined?  only for crafting (or as currency).  as long as the value of random unique hats decreases in value relative to the value of keys, the price of refined will drop.  this is obvious ffs.  the only other possible explanation for the rise in the value of keys is a self-perpetuating bubble assisted by backpack.tf and tf2finance in conjunction with each other.  bootstrapping each other up, perhaps. and i can say from experience that backpack.tf is taken as bible to many new traders and we must be very careful before changing core currency prices.

 

let me reiterate: this whole key-inflation thing also speaks to a drop in the value of hats and refined.  not inflation in the value of keys.  

 

whether or not there's some bubble effect would require an analysis by someone who cared enough to look at the value of randomly crafted hats (3 ref = one hat, right?).   my guess is, there are too many hats that aren't worth more than 1.66....which means that if you're trying to increase the value of your backpack, you're not going to craft your refined.  thus, refined has a long ways yet to fall.  

 

the base currency in tf2 markets absolutely should be keys.  they are easily translatable to cash money, and require real value being input into the system somewhere along the way.  not promos and especially not refined.  why we can put prices in terms of refined is a historical oddity, but not a helpful part of backpack.tf or trading in general.  

 

there is only one downward pressure on the price of keys: the existence of theives who steal credit cards and buy keys and quicksell them to make a quick buck.  otherwise, as duping is over, there is NO reason why keys should have (an almost 50%) discount from buying them in the store.  and valve is really taking on shady people and the regular traders who are taking advantage of this.  so keys have yet to peak.  my 2centz

[MC22]

Wrong place to put this

Please just respond to the legions or threads almost exactly the same.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

there is NO reason why keys should have (an almost 50%) discount from buying them in the store.  and valve is really taking on shady people and the regular traders who are taking advantage of this.  so keys have yet to peak.  my 2centz

I'm assuming you're referring to Paypal $-value vs. Marketplace/Store $-value...

Keep in mind that noone would buy keys from SOP if the price was the same. (the security of the store/marketplace counts towards something).

 

And quickselling keys don't really affect much, since buyers buy them up so quickly. think of it this way, if 5% of keys were sold for 2.33 Ref, would key prices go down? No, not really, because the keys will be bought up almost immediately by the larger traders who will then refuse to sell for less than 4 ref.

[F CHARLIE]

Nasty, nasty mess.

 

In all of this what may have been lost is that it ties up large amounts of currency for trading.  Keys are hoarded for future value by resellers and ref is hoarded to buy the keys. 

 

One of the larger traders on my friends list has said that random people will friend him for no other reason than just to ask him if he wants to buy thier unusual because he has a lot of keys.

[F CHARLIE]

"let me reiterate: this whole key-inflation thing also speaks to a drop
in the value of hats and refined.  not inflation in the value of keys."

 

The drop in value of some lower trade tier items might be due to a lack of currency in the market.

[m0lten no monitor]

I'm assuming you're referring to Paypal $-value vs. Marketplace/Store $-value...

Keep in mind that noone would buy keys from SOP if the price was the same. (the security of the store/marketplace counts towards something).

 

And quickselling keys don't really affect much, since buyers buy them up so quickly. think of it this way, if 5% of keys were sold for 2.33 Ref, would key prices go down? No, not really, because the keys will be bought up almost immediately by the larger traders who will then refuse to sell for less than 4 ref.

Yeah, i'm referring to paypal transactions.  sketchy at best.  And the discounted price probably has something to do with that risk factor.  After all, so many traders have worked their backpacks up in value from nothing, when the time comes to cash out, real money trumps virtual wealth.    

 

The volume of keys (and other items) traded is enormous relative to the volume of trades that are rooted in scams/carders/ etc.  

 

"let me reiterate: this whole key-inflation thing also speaks to a drop

in the value of hats and refined.  not inflation in the value of keys."

 

The drop in value of some lower trade tier items might be due to a lack of currency in the market.

 

there isn't a lack of currency.  far far from it.  there are many things that are taken as currency, from metal (which there is a lot of), craft hats (which have always been taken as 1.33 - 1.66 in value), keys, bills, earbuds, max's heads all the way up to HOUWARs, which have a putative value as ten buds but ymmv.  all of these items act as currencies for various transactions.  

 

the issue is: there are lots of non-valuable hats.  so, there is less of an urge to craft.  (remember, crafting was WHY metal came into existence in the first place....use of metal as currency in trading is an aftereffect and a corollary use, as metal has no in-game function except in crafting).