Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 All Information Is Taken From The Site, And Information That Anyone Can Access. So, I Wondering The Unbox Rate Per Effect? Im Your Guy. Note: These Are Taken From Backpack.tf The Numbers WILL BE OFF. This Is Just To Provide An Idea This Is Using ~3 Days Worth Of Data (9 Total Days Over Whole Event. Take Stats x3 For Stats Over The Whole Event) ----------------2011 Effects---------------- Cloudy Moon: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%) Eerie Orbiting Fire: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%) Flaming Lantern: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.3%) Cauldron Bubbles: 1 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%) ----------------2012 Effects---------------- Knifestorm: 6 Total Unboxed During Event (2%) Misty Skull: 2 Total Unboxed During Event (0.6%) Harvest Moon: 1 Total Unboxed During Event (0.3%) Its A Secret To Everybody: 6 Total Unboxed During Event (2%) Stormy 13th Hour: 4 Total Unboxed During Event (1.2%) ----------------2013 Effects---------------- Arcana: 28 Total Unboxed During Event (9%) Spellbound: 47 Total Unboxed During Event (15%) Chiroptera Venenata: 32 Total Unboxed During Event (10%) Poisoned Shadows: 31 Total Unboxed During Event (10%) Something Burning This Way Comes: 38 Total Unboxed During Event (12%) Hellfire: 36 Total Unboxed During Event (11%) Darkblaze: 27 Total Unboxed During Event (9%) Demonflame: 44 Total Unboxed During Event (14%) Conclusion: Assuming That 100 Crates = 1 Unusual To Get A 2011 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~3333 Crates Average To Get A 2012 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~1666 Crates Average To Get A 2013 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~110 Crates Average To Account For Time For The System To Log Items, Im Going To Call That 3 Days Worth. So Assuming There Are 260 And 100 Crates = 1 Unusual and Every Hat Has The Same Unbox Rate. There Is A 11% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2011 Effect There Is A 22% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2012 Effect There Is A 67% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2013 Effect or ----------------2011 Effects---------------- Cloudy Moon: 3% Eerie Orbiting Fire: 3% Flaming Lantern: 3% Cauldron Bubbles: 1% ----------------2012 Effects---------------- Knifestorm: 6% Misty Skull: 2% Harvest Moon: 1% Its A Secret To Everybody: 6% Stormy 13th Hour: 4% ----------------2013 Effects---------------- Arcana: 28% Spellbound: 47% Chiroptera Venenata: 32% Poisoned Shadows: 31% Something Burning This Way Comes: 38% Hellfire: 36% Darkblaze: 27% Demonflame: 44% So Taking That Data And Assuming All Hats Have The Same Unbox Rate. The Team Captain Will Be Unboxed In ~3 Effects (Making It Impossible For Mattie To Have Every Effect Possible ;o) Really This Is Just Me Rambling Math, But Some People Might Find It Useful.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 Thanks For Doing That But You Could Have Done It Without One Specific Thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 Thanks For Doing That But You Could Have Done It Without One Specific Thing. I was logged out while I was collecting information the one major thing is that item ids are 2___ this year instead of 1___ last year. Without premium you can see the first 4 digits edit: yeah. i know. i messed up my code. fixed it tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyroman Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I was logged out while I was collecting information the one major thing is that item ids are 2___ this year instead of 1___ last year. Without premium you can see the first 4 digits The Caps Are Killing Me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day well shit that throws my numbers off by ~20% still dont see any evidence of that though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day WAIT WHAT? (hween day?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 WAIT WHAT? (hween day?) the 31st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 the 31st So this is no longer valid anyways? Damn it. :S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatOtherChigga #Mack Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 The site doesn't track all the unusuals though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 So this is no longer valid anyways? Damn it. :S the 31st valve still hasnt provided proof. though i could go through item IDs and try to find the day/time they were "spawned" into the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThatOtherChigga #Mack Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day It's Halloween, not Halloween day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woifi The Viking Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 It's Halloween, not Halloween day. If he would have said halloween alone everything would be thinking this would be possible until the 11th...~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 valve still hasnt provided proof. though i could go through item IDs and try to find the day/time they were "spawned" into the gamei know for a fact that I uncrated mine on the 31st. I'll try to find the specific podcast where it was mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Delicious Cashew Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 and to get actual results of all, double each value. the site takes a couple days based on my experience in recording the info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 and to get actual results of all, double each value. the site takes a couple days based on my experience in recording the info the halloween event has been going on for 5 days. the stats were taken today and i clearly stated that I called the info that i collected 3 days worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Bucket Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day proof? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 proof? I'll try to find the specific podcast where it was mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faceman™ Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I unboxed 3 crates..no fucking unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Heavy Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I unboxed 3 crates..no fucking unusual. I unboxed 2. THIS IS an outrage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vegan T-Rex Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 "110 crates to get a 2013 effect" This is the luckiest I will ever be in my lifetime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christley </3 Peelz Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I unboxed 2. THIS IS an outrage. i unboxed 54, this is not an outrage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pyroman Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I unboxed 3 crates..no fucking unusual. I unboxed 2. THIS IS an outrage. I unboxed 17 this event without any unusual. Get on my level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vince Posted November 3, 2013 Author Share Posted November 3, 2013 I unboxed 17 this event without any unusual. Get on my level. so you unboxed all of your profit...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meltron Posted November 3, 2013 Share Posted November 3, 2013 I did not unbox any crate and guess what, I did not get any Unusual. Thanks Valve for scamming me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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