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Halloween Unbox Rate


Vince

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All Information Is Taken From The Site, And Information That Anyone Can Access.

So, I Wondering The Unbox Rate Per Effect? Im Your Guy. 

Note: These Are Taken From Backpack.tf The Numbers WILL BE OFF. This Is Just To Provide An Idea

This Is Using ~3 Days Worth Of Data (9 Total Days Over Whole Event. Take Stats x3 For Stats Over The Whole Event)

 

----------------2011 Effects----------------

Cloudy Moon: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%)

Eerie Orbiting Fire: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%)

Flaming Lantern: 3 Total Unboxed During Event (0.3%)

Cauldron Bubbles: 1 Total Unboxed During Event (0.9%)

 

----------------2012 Effects----------------

Knifestorm: 6 Total Unboxed During Event (2%)

Misty Skull: 2 Total Unboxed During Event (0.6%)

Harvest Moon: 1 Total Unboxed During Event (0.3%)

Its A Secret To Everybody: 6 Total Unboxed During Event (2%)

Stormy 13th Hour: 4 Total Unboxed During Event (1.2%)

 

----------------2013 Effects----------------

Arcana: 28 Total Unboxed During Event (9%)

Spellbound: 47 Total Unboxed During Event (15%)

Chiroptera Venenata: 32 Total Unboxed During Event (10%)

Poisoned Shadows: 31 Total Unboxed During Event (10%)

Something Burning This Way Comes: 38 Total Unboxed During Event (12%)

Hellfire: 36 Total Unboxed During Event (11%)

Darkblaze: 27 Total Unboxed During Event (9%)

Demonflame: 44 Total Unboxed During Event (14%)

 

 

Conclusion:

Assuming That 100 Crates = 1 Unusual

To Get A 2011 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~3333 Crates Average

To Get A 2012 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~1666 Crates Average

To Get A 2013 Effect You Would Have To Unbox ~110 Crates Average

 

To Account For Time For The System To Log Items, Im Going To Call That 3 Days Worth. So Assuming There Are 260 And 100 Crates = 1 Unusual and Every Hat Has The Same Unbox Rate.

There Is A 11% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2011 Effect

There Is A 22% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2012 Effect

There Is A 67% Chance A Certain Hat Will Be Unboxed With A 2013 Effect

 

or

----------------2011 Effects----------------

Cloudy Moon: 3%

Eerie Orbiting Fire: 3%

Flaming Lantern: 3%

Cauldron Bubbles: 1%

 

----------------2012 Effects----------------

Knifestorm: 6%

Misty Skull: 2%

Harvest Moon: 1%

Its A Secret To Everybody: 6%

Stormy 13th Hour: 4%

 

----------------2013 Effects----------------

Arcana: 28%

Spellbound: 47%

Chiroptera Venenata: 32%

Poisoned Shadows: 31%

Something Burning This Way Comes: 38%

Hellfire: 36%

Darkblaze: 27%

Demonflame: 44%

 

So Taking That Data And Assuming All Hats Have The Same Unbox Rate.

The Team Captain Will Be Unboxed In ~3 Effects (Making It Impossible For Mattie To Have Every Effect Possible ;o)

 

Really This Is Just Me Rambling Math, But Some People Might Find It Useful....

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Thanks For Doing That But You Could Have Done It Without One Specific Thing.

I was logged out while I was collecting information 

 

the one major thing is that item ids are 2___ this year instead of 1___ last year. Without premium you can see the first 4 digits

 

edit: yeah. i know. i messed up my code. fixed it tho

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I was logged out while I was collecting information 

 

the one major thing is that item ids are 2___ this year instead of 1___ last year. Without premium you can see the first 4 digits

The Caps Are Killing Me

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I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day

 

well shit that throws my numbers off by ~20%

 

still dont see any evidence of that though

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I heard something about kritzkast saying that the unusual uncrate rate is tripled on halloween day

WAIT WHAT?

 

(hween day?)

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So this is no longer valid anyways? Damn it. :S

 

the 31st

 

valve still hasnt provided proof. though i could go through item IDs and try to find the day/time they were "spawned" into the game

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It's Halloween, not Halloween day.

If he would have said halloween alone everything would be thinking this would be possible until the 11th...~

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valve still hasnt provided proof. though i could go through item IDs and try to find the day/time they were "spawned" into the game

i know for a fact that I uncrated mine on the 31st. I'll try to find the specific podcast where it was mentioned.
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and to get actual results of all, double each value. the site takes a couple days based on my experience in recording the info

the halloween event has been going on for 5 days. the stats were taken today and i clearly stated that I called the info that i collected 3 days worth

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