BP.TF Unusual pricelist - Dies a death unless...

October 21, 2013

If valuations are only possible on the outcome or 'proof' of a trade this idea appears doomed to failure and is already apparent with the vast number of nil-valued and outdated valuations increasing exponentially. Valuations based on sales do not and cannot keep up with the amount of Unusuals on the market already. Add this to the ever increasing list of NEW Unusuals (Hats+Effects) that have no prices listed creates an unsustainable situation.

Prices listed here are only a price GUIDE anyway and appear accurate only at time of a recent sale too. While it may have worked initially it seems to be unmanageable.

e.g.:

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30099/Pardner%27s_Pompadour

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30082/Glasgow_Great_Helm

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30135/Wet_Works

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30118/Whirly_Warrior

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30114/Valley_Forge

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30022/Plumber%27s_Pipe

http://backpack.tf/unusuals/30091/Burning_Bandana

http://backpack.tf/u...tual_Viewfinder
http://backpack.tf/u...43/Virus_Doctor
http://backpack.tf/u...nfernal_Impaler
http://backpack.tf/u.../Tartan_Spartan
http://backpack.tf/u...54/Bunsen_Brave
http://backpack.tf/u...yrantium_Helmet

When this price-list contains more hats without a value than those with it's pretty much at the point of failure.

Options:

Being able to VOTE for valuations could be extended to new or rare items that have no set price or outdated.

Many hats listed with 'no set price' could be easily valued or at least some approximation\estimation based on their relationship to others without need for evidence of a sale. The voting system will still work alongside an estimater to keep prices reflective of true market value .

If anyone has any positive ideas please post.

October 21, 2013

So you are suggesting that we should do the same as pricecheck.net.

Maybe we could make a thread were we try to estimate prices on all unpriced unusuals though.~

October 21, 2013

So you are suggesting that we should do the same as pricecheck.net.

Maybe we could make a thread were we try to estimate prices on all unpriced unusuals though.~

I guess anything that deals with the ever increasing amount of out dates values and items with no prices at all. If something doesn't change the 'price'list wont be a pricelist at all. It will be just another list of Unusuals and serve no purpose other than that imho

October 21, 2013

So, you want a system to predict the price of an unusual ? How is this supposed to be more "accurate" than actual sales and offers ? I don't understand.

Also, unusual experts decide on the price already, that is why we have mods right ?

The people who sell their hat are more than welcome to suggest a price for un-priced hats, but if they don't how are we supposed to know that sales occured, we don't have a magical ball ya know.

This won't increase the repetition of the site, it will make it worse. I see no use of your suggestion really (no offense)

October 21, 2013

Turn into tf2pricecheck? I wouldn't like that. Traders opinions are just opinions , sellers of the hat can try to sell at their opinionated value before they get priced. Sometimes effect tiers aren't even helpful. Some effects we think are better get less then others.

October 21, 2013

So you are suggesting that we should do the same as pricecheck.net.

Maybe we could make a thread were we try to estimate prices on all unpriced unusuals though.~

We already have this The pricecheck request thread that YOU started.

Anyways, there are far more important problems with unusual pricing at this time. I'd rather make what we already have accurate first then worry about pricing unpriced hats. What's the point when 90% of unusual values are inflated?

October 21, 2013

We already have this The pricecheck request thread that YOU started.

Yeah I know, maybe I should create a list of all the pricecheks and write it in the first post.

October 21, 2013

Honestly, I don't mind that the unusual pricelist isn't very accurate. I only use it to get a rough estimate of how much a particular unusual is worth.

October 21, 2013

>"Dies a death"

Yea that kinda happens when you die.

October 21, 2013

There are bigger issues that need to be dealt with first. First and foremost a new system to store prices is in dire need as currency changes are causing prices to be inflated drastically (and if buds rise to their "original" value after halloween then there will be a large amount of deflated unusuals.

Things that need to be fixed immediately:

>Unusual-price storage system

>Paint/Parts/Lvl/Craft# bonuses

anything else would just be nice.

October 21, 2013

He's just mad his suggestion got declined without any proof.

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/524a76d94cd7b823118b4568

October 21, 2013

1. There's a pricecheck thread

2. Brad needs to fix the currency problems linked to unusuals

3. pricelists cannot die, they are inanimate.

October 21, 2013

Honestly, I don't mind that the unusual pricelist isn't very accurate. I only use it to get a rough estimate of how much a particular unusual is worth.

How can you or anyone use a pricelist for any kind of estimate if there are no prices? My point being, if prices are so far out of date and so many new items have no prices no one will use bp.tf as a guide, which is what the Unusual PRICElist was intended to do?

Obviously if you don't trade unusuals then this wont affect/interest you.

Responsibly guaging prices on unusuals will solve the problem and might just save it from going under. Relying on the odd trader to show evidence of a trade to keep the Unusual Pricelist values current simply aint working and can't keep up. Ignore the fact too long and it will dissapear along with so many other failed 'good ideas'. bp.tf could so easliy be the benchmark for pricing Unusuals ... if it can adjust and react to the rapidly detriorating situation. :unsure:

October 21, 2013

How can you or anyone use a pricelist for any kind of estimate if there are no prices? My point being, if prices are so far out of date and so many new items have no prices no one will use bp.tf as a guide, which is what the Unusual PRICElist was intended to do?

Obviously if you don't trade unusuals then this wont affect/interest you.

Responsibly guaging prices on unusuals will solve the problem and might just save it from going under. Relying on the odd trader to show evidence of a trade to keep the Unusual Pricelist values current simply aint working and can't keep up. Ignore the fact too long and it will dissapear along with so many other failed 'good ideas'. bp.tf could so easliy be the benchmark for pricing Unusuals ... if it can adjust and react to the rapidly detriorating situation.

Well there are inherent flaws with a price guide being based on opinions....

Although, it might be an interesting idea....don't change the way backpack.tf does unusuals, but rather create a separate site which still has suggestions that are voted upon, just prices would be suggested by experienced traders based on their own opinions.

BUT, the problem with the current price guide is that there simply aren't enough suggesters to price everything. There are a couple things you need to consider as well.

A lot of suggesters waste their time correcting prices that were screwed up due to currency changes (i.e. wasting time which could've been spent on other unusuals).
If an unusual doesn't have a price, then it hasn't been sold. If it hasn't been sold then seller is clearly asking for more than its worth. So how do you price that? Its a 1 of 1 hat, and the seller refuses to sell it for less than 3 buds, however its really only worth around 2. Therefore its never sold. So what price would you suggest? 3 buds since thats what you'd have to pay if you wanted to buy his overpriced hat? Or what its actually worth (i.e. what people are actually willing to pay?)

So because of number 2, there really isn't a way to put a price on the unpriced unusuals. Now, some of the unpriced unusuals are unpriced because no ones looked into them, but that could easily be fixed by encouraging/directing suggesters to those unusuals.

October 22, 2013

Well there are inherent flaws with a price guide being based on opinions....

Although, it might be an interesting idea....don't change the way backpack.tf does unusuals, but rather create a separate site which still has suggestions that are voted upon, just prices would be suggested by experienced traders based on their own opinions.

BUT, the problem with the current price guide is that there simply aren't enough suggesters to price everything. There are a couple things you need to consider as well.

A lot of suggesters waste their time correcting prices that were screwed up due to currency changes (i.e. wasting time which could've been spent on other unusuals).

If an unusual doesn't have a price, then it hasn't been sold. If it hasn't been sold then seller is clearly asking for more than its worth. So how do you price that? Its a 1 of 1 hat, and the seller refuses to sell it for less than 3 buds, however its really only worth around 2. Therefore its never sold. So what price would you suggest? 3 buds since thats what you'd have to pay if you wanted to buy his overpriced hat? Or what its actually worth (i.e. what people are actually willing to pay?)

So because of number 2, there really isn't a way to put a price on the unpriced unusuals. Now, some of the unpriced unusuals are unpriced because no ones looked into them, but that could easily be fixed by encouraging/directing suggesters to those unusuals.

trades.tf?

October 22, 2013

@ AwesomeMcCoolName

Not so sure a separate list is going to help if the current list is not able to keep up. If estimated values are highlighted as such then it's possible to set at least some value on items that have no price. Estimated values would be open to votes in the same way as other items, so if the community feels that a value needs adjusting then it will be. One thing for sure is if it doesn't change the Unusual pricelist wont be a pricelist at all.

As for new Unusuals (new hats with new effects or 1of1s), a base price could easily be set based on it's craft version value given that they are valued very quickly because there are so many on the market. We already have a scale in terms of particle effect so a simple formula could be introduced to save time and opinion when valuing an Unusual version.

Unusual Price estimate.

Craft version value in ref = A (This is generally consistent and provides a base value for the hat type).

Rarity scale = B (the more rare the hat the greater the multiplier value)

Particle effect multiplier = C (Particle effects are already have a scale and new effects values are usually determined within only a day or two).

A x B x C= X (X = Value in points)

Simply divide X by n (n = key price scale divisor) = Unusual hat Entry Price value in keys/buds.

As soon as one new unusual has evidence of a sale with votes cast it will then automatically adjust the Entry Price to the Market Price. Job done. There is enough data already to determine a particle effect scale and craft hat values are there too. All that needs to be calculated is a rarity multiplier. I'm sure there are guys here which far greater mathematics skills than mine that could determine these values in no time.

October 22, 2013

@ AwesomeMcCoolName

Not so sure a separate list is going to help if the current list is not able to keep up. If estimated values are highlighted as such then it's possible to set at least some value on items that have no price. Estimated values would be open to votes in the same way as other items, so if the community feels that a value needs adjusting then it will be. One thing for sure is if it doesn't change the Unusual pricelist wont be a pricelist at all.

As for new Unusuals (new hats with new effects or 1of1s), a base price could easily be set based on it's craft version value given that they are valued very quickly because there are so many on the market. We already have a scale in terms of particle effect so a simple formula could be introduced to save time and opinion when valuing an Unusual version.

Unusual Price estimate.

Craft version value in ref = A (This is generally consistent and provides a base value for the hat type).

Rarity scale = B (the more rare the hat the greater the multiplier value)

Particle effect multiplier = C (Particle effects are already have a scale and new effects values are usually determined within only a day or two).

A x B x C= X (X = Value in points)

Simply divide X by n (n = key price scale divisor) = Unusual hat Entry Price value in keys/buds.

As soon as one new unusual has evidence of a sale with votes cast it will then automatically adjust the Entry Price to the Market Price. Job done. There is enough data already to determine a particle effect scale and craft hat values are there too. All that needs to be calculated is a rarity multiplier. I'm sure there are guys here which far greater mathematics skills than mine that could determine these values in no time.

The problem is, prices really don't make sense. There are a lot of hats which sell for more due to rarity (on the market/in existence), themes, collectors, combinations, etc... At that point it would become like tf2pc.

But look at the unpriced hats. A lot of them haven't been sold, and others haven't been on the market in quite some time (therefore its not really possible, or necessary to price). If there are no recent sales then one of two things is true. 1) The seller is asking for more than its worth, and hasn't found someone whos willing to pay too much. 2) There are none on the market. With the former there is the issue i mentioned earlier, what price would you set? The price that the seller refuses to go below (but hasn't succeeded in months) or what the highest offer has been? And for the latter, there are none on the market (i.e. non for sale) therefore there is no market for it, and therefore no need to put a price on it.

October 22, 2013

@ AwesomeMcCoolName

I think you may have missed the point. Fact is the unusual pricelist is lagging so far behind it's becoming useless and by Xmas it pretty much will be. I assume all can appreciate that? So what do you do to keep it going? Do something or do nothing?

One suggestion,,, Set a base price like others do, why, because otherwise your pricelist will fail like this one is.

Traders want A VALUE, whether that be an estimate based on current trends or actual value based on a sale price.

Do nothing and it's dead and gone.

October 22, 2013

@ AwesomeMcCoolName

I think you may have missed the point. Fact is the unusual pricelist is lagging so far behind it's becoming useless and by Xmas it pretty much will be. I assume all can appreciate that? So what do you do to keep it going? Do something or do nothing?

One suggestion,,, Set a base price like others do, why, because otherwise your pricelist will fail like this one is.

Traders want A VALUE, whether that be an estimate based on current trends or actual value based on a sale price.

Do nothing and it's dead and gone.

We're you here around the start of the summer and robo updates? We've actually had a massive amount if stuff filled in, but there's way too many effects as of now to get them all priced like that. Don't worry though, they'll be finished sometime*

Also, hat value is entirely dependent on crafting ability. Do you think a Unusual Mogolian is equivalent to a modest? They are both normal daft hats.

October 22, 2013

We're you here around the start of the summer and robo updates? We've actually had a massive amount if stuff filled in, but there's way too many effects as of now to get them all priced like that. Don't worry though, they'll be finished sometime*

Also, hat value is entirely dependent on crafting ability. Do you think a Unusual Mogolian is equivalent to a modest? They are both normal daft hats.

Sorry Cedar, I can only really respond properly to your comments if they relate to either the OP or subsequent posts. Might help if you read and understood the thread before asking irrelevant and unrelated questions.

My responses:

Yes,
This is why the pricelist is failing,
Obviously not?
No one is discussing craft hats (read OP),

October 22, 2013

What awesome said.

An unusual is mostly unpriced simply because it hasn't sold yet.

How's backpack.tf still a GUIDE, if it automatically sets an estimated price based on the craft hat's value?

Unusual Price estimate.

Craft version value in ref = A (This is generally consistent and provides a base value for the hat type).

Rarity scale = B (the more rare the hat the greater the multiplier value)

Particle effect multiplier = C (Particle effects are already have a scale and new effects values are usually determined within only a day or two).

A x B x C= X (X = Value in points)

Simply divide X by n (n = key price scale divisor) = Unusual hat Entry Price value in keys/buds.

As soon as one new unusual has evidence of a sale with votes cast it will then automatically adjust the Entry Price to the Market Price. Job done. There is enough data already to determine a particle effect scale and craft hat values are there too. All that needs to be calculated is a rarity multiplier. I'm sure there are guys here which far greater mathematics skills than mine that could determine these values in no time.

What a horrible idea. Bp.tf will become a pricing standard without any form of proof.

Look at the Aces High Hat of Cards. (an example to proof your method is way off reality)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13069346 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14693306

These trades are getting crazy offers (easily above 10 buds), even it's a mid hat with mid effect...

October 22, 2013

What awesome said.

An unusual is mostly unpriced simply because it hasn't sold yet.

How's backpack.tf still a GUIDE, if it automatically sets an estimated price based on the craft hat's value?

What a horrible idea. Bp.tf will become a pricing standard without any form of proof.

Look at the Aces High Hat of Cards. (an example to proof your method is way off reality)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13069346 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14693306

These trades are getting crazy offers (easily above 10 buds), even it's a mid hat with mid effect...

âˆžRamses "An unusual is mostly unpriced simply because it hasn't sold yet."

WRONG It.s because evidence of a trade/sale of a hat hasn't been recorded and published here then submitted to a vote. Unusual trades happen all the time, on trade servers, between friends and many other groups and trading forums and sites and without any record as far as bp.tf is concerned. Because of bp.tf's half empty and out date pricelist is why less people bother to publish any sale proof here too. It's this very slow process that is causing the problem. More hats are coming onto the market that the current voting system can keep up with. It's that simple. Not an opinion but fact.

Do nothing and it will fail as a pricelist period No prices = no price-list.

October 22, 2013

Then it will fail as a pricelist period No prices = no pricelist.

no prices > incorrectly assigned prices.

The only site that took more shit than bptf was tf2pc solely because the people price checking didn't have a clue what they were doing and they incorrectly valued hundreds of hats. The only saving grace of Backpack.tf is that you need proof to assign a price; therefore there is proof to support a price (i.e. you really can't discredit bp.tf like you could tf2pc).

October 22, 2013

What awesome said.

An unusual is mostly unpriced simply because it hasn't sold yet.

How's backpack.tf still a GUIDE, if it automatically sets an estimated price based on the craft hat's value?

What a horrible idea. Bp.tf will become a pricing standard without any form of proof.

Look at the Aces High Hat of Cards. (an example to proof your method is way off reality)

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/13069346 and http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/14693306

These trades are getting crazy offers (easily above 10 buds), even it's a mid hat with mid effect...

Which is why you continue to vote! This helps keep values at MARKET PRICE. No one has suggested replacing voting. :rolleyes:

October 22, 2013

incorrect prices > assigned prices.

The only site that took more shit than bptf was tf2pc solely because the people price checking didn't have a clue what they were doing and they incorrectly valued hundreds of hats. The only saving grace of Backpack.tf is that you need proof to assign a price; therefore there is proof to support a price (i.e. you really can't discredit bp.tf like you could tf2pc).

When bp.tf has so few prices in it's list it becomes redundant. Waiting for proof will help revalue items of course but by relying on that process alone is why it can't keep up. Voting is vital to keep items from being hyped or deflated but waiting for sale proof just aint keeping up.

Question. If bp.tf cant keep prices on old or new hats upto date now, how is it going to look after Halloween and Xmas?

Answer. More like this I imagine:

http://backpack.tf/u...ner's_Pompadour

http://backpack.tf/u...sgow_Great_Helm

http://backpack.tf/u...30135/Wet_Works

http://backpack.tf/u.../Whirly_Warrior

http://backpack.tf/u...14/Valley_Forge

http://backpack.tf/u.../Plumber's_Pipe

http://backpack.tf/u...Burning_Bandana

http://backpack.tf/u...tual_Viewfinder

http://backpack.tf/u...43/Virus_Doctor

http://backpack.tf/u...nfernal_Impaler