sG Voodoo Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 I think we are going to see some of these start to spike soon. For instance, yesterday there were 15 Sore eye strangifiers on the market for $3.80. That's not very many. Today it is 7. It's getting really hard to find any recipies for any items now under 3-5 keys. Those are becoming the cheap ones. And people are asking prices of 1-3 keys for them on the market. So you're looking at 4-8 keys for 'cheap' crafts. Of course there will be fewer buyers as they are depleted, and people will be trying to sell their strange items as they see prices go up. But I think we hit saturation and the prices have hit bottom. No where to go but up. People are still asking a lot for the chem sets right now though, and that will have to start dropping. Costing more to craft now than you can sell them for, and that doesn't account for time/effort to obtain items.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 6, 2013 Share Posted September 6, 2013 yep, seeing a spike today. Veils ran out of stock, one left at $8, now there are 3 at $8. And one sold (see market or proof). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lgwarriors Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 Oh my god I hate chem sets so much. A guy declined my overpay for his sight for sore eyes set b/c of an outpost trade. I was offering about a key, which was an overpay, as it needed diamond botkiller shit. He gave me the link to an outpost trade in which one that only had normal weps went for 3 keys, then closed the trade. Fuck my life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 yeah people are being a bit dumb about them. That's why I started tracking these stats a bit and trying to figure them out, you can always link to my post above. I can't say it's up to date constantly but it has a lot of info. Just realized that pomson strangifiers are ONLY in the Select reserve Crate #60 . So it is very much like bacon grease. The crates are selling for $13 on market. The pomson strangifiers are selling for $25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I am kinda amazed that traders were not smarter with these. They could have been selling cheaper set for more initially. Reason, it looks like the average strange is priced around a key. That means that over half will cost more than a couple keys to acquire and craft. Especially when players figure this stuff out. They will know there cheap set is worth more to the person it drops to. That means that all of the sets below the key+ range will still cost you a few keys to bring it to market unless you received it in drop. They should have been charging that number earlier. I just wish i could have got more of these on the first weekend but I was out of town. I crafted the cheap sets I received but will wait until the price gets pretty stiff. Maybe until Valve replaces these with the next set. The strangifier could go for 10 keys or so for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 The market is starting to thin out quickly. two reasons. 1- everyone expects to sell their chem set for a key. It's still worth it to buy some for that, but Bird of Aberdeen Steam Market is flooded at one key for the strangifier. Very hard to find a recipe for that that you can buy/craft and still resell for profit (especially when valve gets their cut). If a cheap recipe drops then you can still make a quick couple refs. 2- strange weapon prices have been going up quick due to these recipes. At first I was buying a lot of strange silvers and still making a profit. Now the strange silvers x cost of buying a chem set / market selling value has pretty much squeezed that dry for most items. I've already bought several where I gave someone a fair offer and higher than other offers they have received and they say no. Two hours or two days later they come back and want to take my offer. -------- At first there were 4 tiers of recipes. cheap = bad strange weaps that sell for a couple rec/ref. mid = anything botkiller, mostly silver, maybe carbono expensive = gold botkiller, blood, diamond. Pretty much out of price range before the game started. ridiculous = strange festives. IMO the market will end up like this: All cheap and mids eventually crafted. Establishing the prices that stay similar to what we have today. People will then just buy strange misc. Demand will continue to shape the market. archimedes and robros will stay high, aberdeens will be low and towels will be super cheap. Over time the prices may fluctuate, but as newer ones are released everyone will forget these and want new stuff. So prices will probably stay low on everything except the highest, which will likely continue to go up. The market will be completely flooded with the gold and ridiculous priced chem sets that almost nobdy will craft because it's an instant and substantial loss. At some time maybe medes and robro will get high enough that it will be worth crafting gold weaps, but more for personal use than resell. I doubt the prices will ever go high enough that it is worth crafting away festives. So the festive chems will remain as trade fodder for sharks taking advantage of n00bs. They will buy them for a scrap and sell them for a rec. n00b will be bummed and eventually sell them for a scrap ad nueseum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simply ♪ Invisifly2 Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 Well I have one way to calculate the price of sets (that has already been mentioned here before). Take max value and min value of ingredients and the outputs, average it together, and there you go. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Say a chem set produced an S villains Veil and required the following items (this is what I was lucky enough to find btw ) - 10 regular weapons - S Rust Scattergun S. Veils are listed at 3.5 keys max so -> 21ref (max ref value of 3.5 keys) - .55ref (min weapon value) - 2.33ref (min Rust Scatter-gun value) = 18.12ref ≈ 18.11ref max for that particular recipe. Now you could calculate this differently S. Veils are listed at 3 keys min so -> 17.31ref (min ref value of 3 keys) - 1.11 (max weapon value) - 3 ref (max Rust Scatter-gun value) = 13.2ref ≈ 13.22ref min for that particular recipe. I propose taking the average value -> (13.22ref + 18.11ref) / 2 ≈ 15.66 avg value of that particular recipe. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The only real question here is how much should we take off the value due to the hassle of finding the craft materials, if any at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 9, 2013 Share Posted September 9, 2013 I think the strangefier could hold good potential when these set don't drop anymore. All the cheap sets have been used and people will still want to make thier own item strange in the future. I was thinking about people with a certain level vintage or low craft items and even items crafted by them. I recently crafted an archemedes and wss going to sell it but maybe not. I just hope that valve changes the sets soon so as to not have too many of anyone available. Strange prices won't get out of control. The drop rate doesn't seem that high. I have a buy post for the chem sets and I only see ones with really high stranges or people who just got them droped to them and adds have really slowed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 Well I have one way to calculate the price of sets (that has already been mentioned here before). Take max value and min value of ingredients and the outputs, average it together, and there you go. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Say a chem set produced an S villains Veil and required the following items (this is what I was lucky enough to find btw ) - 10 regular weapons - S Rust Scattergun S. Veils are listed at 3.5 keys max so -> 21ref (max ref value of 3.5 keys) - .55ref (min weapon value) - 2.33ref (min Rust Scatter-gun value) = 18.12ref ≈ 18.11ref max for that particular recipe. Now you could calculate this differently S. Veils are listed at 3 keys min so -> 17.31ref (min ref value of 3 keys) - 1.11 (max weapon value) - 3 ref (max Rust Scatter-gun value) = 13.2ref ≈ 13.22ref min for that particular recipe. I propose taking the average value -> (13.22ref + 18.11ref) / 2 ≈ 15.66 avg value of that particular recipe. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The only real question here is how much should we take off the value due to the hassle of finding the craft materials, if any at all. ======== Well the problem with that is with the high value recipes. You're talking 15 ref but average in a 80 ref weapon (plenty of those recipes exist - strange festive guess range) and you have an average of (idk) 45 ref. Who's going to pay 7 keys for a veil strangifier? And kill their rare valued weap at same time while losing 40 ref in value? So most likely the highest tier will never be used. That keeps the price down but that still doesn't account for gold kill bots/ but those still at least double the price of strangifiers we are seeing. My point above is that until the items are highly sought after and hard to come by the gold's wont be used at all. So your average holds OK. IF they stop dropping and become highly sought after (robro and archimedees only imo - though bonk and veil can be used on unusuals so they might raise) then their prices might get as high as gold botkillers before the gold bots start getting crafted. Only at that point will it be worth it to craft them. But then the gold bot prices will start raising too.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 the market seems to be stabilizing pretty well now. On the Market fluctuations in prices seem to be in the 10% up/down range. Most people are selling the strangifiers for prices that reflect the market values pretty closely. Of course there are people who still insist their chem sets are worth 4 keys (even though a strangifier is selling for 2-3 keys) and it requires a gold bot weap. I had one trader (I usually delete names to keep friends list clean) who messaged me back today and wanted her chem set 'worth 3-4 keys' back because the backpack.tf price of a strange item was 3 keys more than the item itself. I felt I gave her a fair 1-1.5 key offer on her chem set which she accepted. (not a bad drop profit imo) After describing to her how the chem set needed to be crafted into a strangifier she admitted she was confused. I don't know. You'd think Valve would include written instructions or something 8) (oh yeah, they do if you look at the item in your inventory). I keep offering what I feel is a fair value and am still receiving post mortem trades where someone refuses my offer, I say ok and delete my offer and they come back a few days later and ask me if I will still trade. I've also given better offers than anyone else. Someone has a couple offers of two/three ref and I have been offering a key. So I don't feel bad if i made profit, I did as much homework as anyone on this. I suppose by next chem set drop cycle people will understand better. it'll also mean that the chem sets might sell for less, but that the strangifiers will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 19, 2013 Share Posted September 19, 2013 I think the ride may be over Seems like 20 pages of chem sets left on tf2op is basically all the crap, and people clinging to 1+ key prices. If you see something for 2 ref it definitely has a strange festive requirement. I have a trade up offering 1 rec for each and have only bought one (most likely a complete waste of metal anyway). If you see a trade that doesn't list recipe or says 'look at my backpack' it's 99% sure that it is BAD. But I thought that two days ago and next thing I know I am sitting on 20 strangifiers 8O maybe drop cycle started over again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I think the ride may be over Seems like 20 pages of chem sets left on tf2op is basically all the crap, and people clinging to 1+ key prices. If you see something for 2 ref it definitely has a strange festive requirement. I have a trade up offering 1 rec for each and have only bought one (most likely a complete waste of metal anyway). If you see a trade that doesn't list recipe or says 'look at my backpack' it's 99% sure that it is BAD. But I thought that two days ago and next thing I know I am sitting on 20 strangifiers 8O maybe drop cycle started over again... Except the last item; dito The next thing for them is to start the next set of these. Although we never considered the idea that they won't release them except in crates from now on and that these are limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 20, 2013 Share Posted September 20, 2013 I don't think they will be crate items. That's what the pomson was, but last round of crates it was bacon grease (same thing really) I think valve likes seeing items get burnt up in crafts. It means more botkiller sales (gotta buy tickets to get em) (or buy them from store which I ended up doing, usually a ref more than trade but so much easier). Then I've been selling Strangifiers on the market and they get another cut. People will still buy keys for whatever is in the crates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 I don't think they will be crate items. That's what the pomson was, but last round of crates it was bacon grease (same thing really) I think valve likes seeing items get burnt up in crafts. It means more botkiller sales (gotta buy tickets to get em) (or buy them from store which I ended up doing, usually a ref more than trade but so much easier). Then I've been selling Strangifiers on the market and they get another cut. People will still buy keys for whatever is in the crates. Those were salvages. Valve wants to encourage the trade economy. That's what these strangifiers are very good for. Item drops force wealthier traders to pay poorer players for something thus moving cash down so that it can keep the cash flowing thru the economy. If the poorest players can't buy than the lower level traders have no customer base. Then the mid-lvl trader has a declining customer base etc. Eventually the wealthy players wealth losses value because no one is there to buy it. If there is 10 wealthy traders left then there is no one left. Economies depend on the average and lower level agents not the upper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 21, 2013 Share Posted September 21, 2013 Well, pomson and strange grease are also both weapons strangifiers, only two in existence. The dropping chem sets made misc strange, and about 10 of them at that. So far it's only misc and there are plenty of those to go, but i can see hats being included. There are so many hats and this makes some more desirable. But from my experience these drops were great for poor and rich alike. I was giving fair prices (basically around a key +/-) for all the chems I bought. So someone gets a chem drop and gets a key or it. Much better than the average hat drop at 1.3. Today I saw an all-father drop (2 key) but that's rare. I think I must've bought at least 40 chems so far, maybe 60. So that's 60 very likely poor people that got a great drop. Then I spent money (store) or metal/keys on weaps to craft em. So people got something out of those old stranges they have been stuck with. Personally I opened some crates and got 'burned' with crappy stranges. So making use of them boosts attitudes towards opening strange crates. And there are millions of crates that need keys bought to open...So this can help raise their value. Of course I already mentioned the raise in value of botkillers, which makes buying tickets a better value. Most strange weaps I've bought for crafting have been higher prices than Backpack.tf prices because people started buying them and hoarding right when they saw the chem sets. So people made money there. I'm not 'poor' but I'm far from rich. I've already bought one unusual just from chem profits. Plus I've bought at least 20 keys from the store to use for buying chem sets and weaps. I bet Valve has made $30-50 off of me just so I could craft these things and sell them. Most likely more. So sure, putting them into crates is a good way for them to make money because people will buy keys, but then they'd lose 5 other market facets. And with the last updates of many hats, and the announcements that they plan to really start buying submissions I think they plan to add tons of hats/mis in crates to sell keys. And use strangifiers to keep the market high for older stuff people aren't buying anymore. Have they been selling very many Bonk boys before strangifiers? Probably not. But now there's an increased chance they are selling more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Wow! Bam! Valve hits us with another surprise with today's update. Strangified items are now marketable! There are a few Robros and they are selling for a little less than Strangifiers. You also can't see tags like 'uncraftable' as far as I can tell.--EDIT-- Just saw a camera beard with that tag... but how will that effect trading that tag when people using the market can't exploit that as much?) Curious to see where this goes. Will it tank the prices of strangifiers? Glad to see they fixed it though, right when the strangifiers came out I gave a veil to a friend (they were selling for 5 keys at the time) to put on his unusual. A few days ago I noticed it had a non-marketable tag on it. It now says marketable. (it's like a 5 bud item-doubt he'll ever sell it but...) There are no Summer Shades up yet...hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 24, 2013 Share Posted September 24, 2013 Wow! Bam! Valve hits us with another surprise with today's update. Strangified items are now marketable! There are a few Robros and they are selling for a little less than Strangifiers. You also can't see tags like 'uncraftable' as far as I can tell.--EDIT-- Just saw a camera beard with that tag... but how will that effect trading that tag when people using the market can't exploit that as much?) Curious to see where this goes. Will it tank the prices of strangifiers? Glad to see they fixed it though, right when the strangifiers came out I gave a veil to a friend (they were selling for 5 keys at the time) to put on his unusual. A few days ago I noticed it had a non-marketable tag on it. It now says marketable. (it's like a 5 bud item-doubt he'll ever sell it but...) There are no Summer Shades up yet...hmmm Nice. The strangifiers should go for more then the stranges. They are now in limited supply and there are people who want to strangify their own item. That was always the important thing about them. Only a certain number can made of any of the strange items and many will not see the market because the item has significance to the owner; Craft number, lvl vintage, unusual etc. If those do hit the market they will have unique value. When you can't make an unusual veil strange any more how much would someone pay for one that is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 But strangifing your item only counts for a few thing: 1:unusual bonk boy/veil 2: Low craft number 3: crafters name (not very important) 4:Possibly expensive paint In most cases if you can buy a full S.Item a nametag and paint for less than a strangifier why wouldn't you? You can just make a duplicate of your item cheaper. ------ What appears to be happening atm is that people are seeing a profit on the strange items they have already made/bought that is lower than most of the strangifiers on the market. So the equilibrium of screwed up. Eventually people who buy these items will want more profit but I think it'll be a slow rise only for the more popular items and at some point those items will cost more than strangifiers. Still with some items like the robro being all-class and very rare (under 350 in game) I think will see prices jump pretty high. Not too sure about summer shades. There are a couple thousand of them. Still rare but rare enough to command very high prices? Maybe in the long run but there are still enough for sale that it will take a long time for prices to go up much. And there are geniune /non-craft/whatnot oddities . Who knows where they will go. Probably very high but hard sell. Still no summer shades up so I guess non-tradeable will always mean non-marketable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 It took a long time for holloween paints to get so high and their are very few of these strangifiers. The paint has always been worth more then what its applied to. I agree with most of ur sentiment tho. It looks like valve has stoped droping this series and with so few compared to other stranges it will be interesting. There are fewer s veils than unusual veils I think. Not that they will be more expensive yhen those but anyone owning an unusual veil will generally want to make it strange as well, including future unboxed veils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted September 25, 2013 Share Posted September 25, 2013 True but the strangifiers are a bit different. The paints are universal, they can be used on anything. So that'll give them an initial higher value. But they have the whole risk/stigma of being deleted. I've got 3 items, I'm not worried but a lot of other people are. So I think that alone makes it hard to sell items for the value of the paint. Strangifiers on the other hand make an item more valueable, risk free. They can be marketeable so easier (?) to trade. ------ A couple funny bugs i've noticed... 1: chem sets all have a level. Per backpack. Mine have all said level 167, another guys were level 100... But when crafted the strangifiers are all level 5. 2: The Strangifiers all say : Uses :0 (just got asked if i was scamming, lol.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted September 26, 2013 Share Posted September 26, 2013 They are different but I was speaking to their simularity in that they are desired and diminishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 It appears as if we have some serious hoardets out there. There are 2400 s bird aberdeen 400 some s archimedes, 1800 s veils. Unless valve made these in uneven amounts I suspect a handfull of people have hoarded these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted October 12, 2013 Share Posted October 12, 2013 No, i'm pretty sure the archimedes are that rare/ I've been looking at these the whole time (as you know) and the robro's and archimedes have always been much harder to find. Even the ridiculous crazy expensive festive weap ones. There aren't any of those either. The robro's are also sitting at right under 400. In fact in the last 2-3 weeks the count of arch and robro each has only increased by 10 or so. It's also reflected in the market. If you look at numbers there are about 5-10 each. But if you look at the rest there are 30-100's (rough guess) of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Map Painter Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 Trade.tf is very useful for picking up cheap sets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sG Voodoo Posted October 13, 2013 Share Posted October 13, 2013 how do you get that view at trade.tf that shows the ingredients? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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