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DEBATE: My thoughts on the economy


Kuuko-San

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Posted · Hidden by cleverpun, April 14, 2015 - Spam
Hidden by cleverpun, April 14, 2015 - Spam

RAISE THE KEYS!! RAISE THE BUDS!! RAISE EVERYTHING!! #SAVETHEECONMOY

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Imo it doesn't affect much besides the jump from low tier trading to high tier trading (i.e converting ref to keys)

 

Which happens to be the phase I'm at right now and hence the reason I've been begging for help all over~

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Imo it doesn't affect much besides the jump from low tier trading to high tier trading (i.e converting ref to keys)

 

Which happens to be the phase I'm at right now and hence the reason I've been begging for help all over~

 

I apologise for the double post, but none the less, I can see what you mean. I'm tired of the spam of "economy is dying" and people bitching about their unusuals. It can make it hard to get a good deal, considering everything is overpriced to all hell, though.

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I agree with everything you said.  I HATE it when people say that buds are dropping because keys are rising... those two things have absolutely no correlation what-so-ever.  Keys are rising because ref is being bumped into the game too fast, and buds are falling because of panics.  Those two are not related at all.  Also I agree that making keys and TODs craftable would be a horrible idea.  That would just encourage people to stop spending money on TF2, which is bad for the economy.  I also agree that the transition to keys is good for the economy even though it is sad to see bud go :(  Also YES!! The economy is not dying!  I'm still here wasting my life, and so are many many other people.  This is simply a panic :P

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All the comments on your video is people begging for the pan

 

ik ;-; who needs a debate, eh?

 

 

the bud crash was an inside job

 

jet fuel can't melt keys

 

Damn it GaBen

 

 

I agree with everything you said.  I HATE it when people say that buds are dropping because keys are rising... those two things have absolutely no correlation what-so-ever.  Keys are rising because ref is being bumped into the game too fast, and buds are falling because of panics.  Those two are not related at all.  Also I agree that making keys and TODs craftable would be a horrible idea.  That would just encourage people to stop spending money on TF2, which is bad for the economy.  I also agree that the transition to keys is good for the economy even though it is sad to see bud go :(  Also YES!! The economy is not dying!  I'm still here wasting my life, and so are many many other people.  This is simply a panic :P

 

It's not just it'd stop encouraging people to stop spending money on the game, it's premium currency. With ref being so readily available, and craft hats still staying the same price the rise in keys only affects higher tier traders and people looking to get into High Tier trading. Of course, being COMPLETELY F2P, without spending ANY money on the game makes it so much harder, so I'm willing to bet that MOST people who've gotten into high tier trading have spent money at some point. 

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I was greatly distracted by some of the actions of the other players in the video.

Especially that Engineer charging you with the Wrench when his primary would have been much better.

 

More on-topic, it's rather silly that we still hear people talking about how buds falling is from keys rising and etc, etc, etc

However I think most can agree that people will always be saying this for as long as an economy exists within TF2 because people are dumb, for lack of a better term.

 

I don't really trade myself (I'm trying to transition to only doing SCM things as trading is a boring chore as far as I'm concerned) and even I am aware that the economy isn't dying and I don't even consider this a "tough" economic time for TF2.

 

Back when I started playing keys were 2.33 and on occasion you could get them for lower and I would say it was harder to get into high-tier trading back then as keys couldn't get you much if you wanted refined, and buds were around 20-25 I think.

 

People should be happy that keys cost so much in my opinion as you can get so much more with the metal off of one key than in the past, and for someone like myself who used to just want unique or vintage cosmetics instead of crazy unusuals with flashy special effects a higher key price allows me to get more of what I want.

 

I do understand people that say the gap between low tier, mid tier, and high tier trading is getting large and to some degree they're probably right. (I can't speak much on the matter as I never got that far.) but I think as it is right now the economy is moving along just fine.

 

I feel like none of this made sense

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-snip-

 

No I completely understand.

 

If you're able to buy, or get keys, then great. Your money can go much further if you're just interested in uniques and low tier stranges, however the gap between scrapbanking to unusual trading is getting much larger, and as a result, it's becoming "get lucky or pay to get into", which can cause a divide. 

 

As I've been doing this for so long, I've learnt all the different tricks and such, hence why I'm able to do as well as I do. but it saddens me to see what some traders come to. "PURE ONLY, 1000X OVERPAY IN ITEMS!!!1" "NO BP.TF!!11 MY PRICE, FUCK OFF!" and people don't seem to understand that if I wanted to get what they're selling that badly, I'd just head to classifieds. 

 

It's tough because it's new. It's not bad, it just needs time to get used to. Once everything gets repriced, or such, we'll be fine. for now backpack.tf is little more than a mere indication of history.

 

Anyway, thanks for your input :P

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You are absolutely right , everything you say in the video is correct . I left tf 2 without cashing out 2 years ago and to be fair , I regret this now . Tf 2 economy has changed , A LOT . Back in my time a key would be 2.33 to 2.55 ref , buds would be 21 - 25 keys . Skyrim and COD MW 3 would be sold for at least an earbud . I have been trading for a few days now and I managed to make a 3 - 4 key profit . Actually , I think that if U have enough keys ( or unusuals or whatever , I mean valuable promos or items ) you can make profit much easier . I can't imagine tho , how a normal trader , who uses refined and such stuff , could make some easy profit quickly . The gap is getting larger and larger , the only thing that could boost the unique items trader would be buying a few keys in the market and then trying

to buy some quicksales I guess ... But then comes the other problem . Buying a quicksale nowadays is really hard . As a trader , who comes back in the bussiness after so long , it's really hard to get used to all these new 3-rd gen eff and robo eff . I noticed for a few days that it's really hard to sell a hat , especially when it's a 3-rd gen effect hat . People just don't like them , they prefer the old classy ones . To be fair , I don't liek them as well . I like the Disco beat down and Antifreeze and that's basically it . Also , another problem for me is getting used to the new prices . Fettis for example have rised a lot , so did the tf 2 logo and the peace sign . This is great , because back in the old days , I was secretly hoping they would rise someday , they just look cool . THe real problem for me though , is finding the exact price of an unusual nowadays . You see , probably more than a half of the prices of unusuals here in backpack.tf are EXTREMELY inaccurate. The gap between the prices here and on Outpost are terribly huge . I almost paid like 80 keys for an unusual which would cost no more than 50 ( IN THE BEST SCENARIO ) , good thing I checked the prices on Outpost before buying it . Prices really should be fixed , I understand it cannot happen for a day or two , but really , this has to happen . Anyway , I'm sorry if there are mistakes in the text I wrote , I'm not a native American , but an Eastern European with an opinion on what's happening . Ahoy . 

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Honestly, even though I've barely played TF2 for about 9 months now, it's ridiculous to see how people are still trying to keep buds as an official currency even when circumstances have changed to better benefit the TF2 economy.

 

I saw buds as a placeholder for keys. That is, they held a certain value in keys when (as stated) the trading system back then was much different than the trading system we have now. Now that we have a much better time using keys as a currency for trading unusuals, the bud should have been dropped as a currency when the TF2 trading system improved the exchange of keys. Now that you can send whatever amount of keys in a single trade for a nice high-tier unusual, it keeps the value of it for months/years to come, as the key will still retain its value because it's still in mass supply.

 

Buds shouldn't be used anymore because they make the trading system too confusing to take into account, what with buds constantly fluctuating in value, causing people that are new to high-tier trading to accept whatever value buds were at a given time in order to make their offers, which just creates more anger and confusion.

 

Much like CS:GO trading (which borrowed from TF2's trading system), keys are the primary currency used in trading, with people also accepting knives/weapon skin offers as well. Same thing here. Keys are (now) the primary currency here, with people also taking offers in unusuals/Max's heads/other items.

 

TL;DR:The improved trading system in TF2 has made the exchange of keys much easier. If the bud continues to be used as an official currency, then we will never quite know how much a certain unusual is priced, as the bud's value will keep going through a cycle of dropping/increasing, creating panic and confusion. The phasing out of the bud is a good idea in my opinion as it allows the high-tier trading system to become much easier to understand, as unusuals can now be set at a fixed price in keys (which are easily obtainable), putting less pressure on people who want to get into trading for unusuals and such.

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You say in your video that the increase in abundance of metal which has led to its devaluation...

 

...is not inflation.

 

I don't know what you think inflation is, but you've obviously gotten mixed up somewhere.  Metal is a currency.  Most items are priced in metal.  If metal becomes worth less and less because there is more and more of it, this means that the prices of the items which are valued in metal will start to go up.  This is exactly what we have seen, and this is exactly what inflation is defined as.  It is the increase in the cost of things over time, such that you are able to get fewer and fewer things per unit of currency.  It also leads to losses being incurred by holding that currency, as well as hoarding of other items to avoid those losses.  Now I have to ask you: Is this not exactly what we have been seeing in TF2?

 

Of course, relative to the U.S. dollar, items in TF2 haven't changed all that much overall (excluding the natural trend for most unlimited items to gradually devalue over time as their novelty decreases while supply goes up), especially in the case of tools (keys, paints, tickets, etc), unless you're talking specifically about the USD value of metal.  But this can also be the case within the market of any real country relative to currencies from other countries.   If a country experiences rapid inflation, its currency will be worth less with respect to the currency of other countries, and its goods and services will remain essentially the same value with respect to external currencies, while being worth more with respect to its own currency.  So if you want to use the objection that "stuff still costs the same in dollars", you need to realize that it's actually not a valid objection to raise since it mirrors real world examples of inflation anyway.

 

Other than that, I really have nothing else to take issue with.  I thought your commentary was pretty dead on.

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I agree with everything you said more or less.   I would take on a slightly more pessimistic view about the economy though:  

 

There's never before been as much chaos around bud and key pricing as last year post-Halloween and early 2015.  Just look at past years data and you can see that while buds were declining and keys were rising in refined value, it was a more stable, gradual decline.  Then things went haywire, with values bouncing up and down drastically (as you point out in the video).  To me, this is a sign of instability, and this instability comes from insecurity on the part of the stakeholders in this economy (i.e. the traders).  Granted, a large part of that insecurity comes from traders constantly claiming that TF2 is done, the economy is dying, etc.  but nonetheless, this insecurity works its way into the economy in various ways, like extreme crashes and increases.   

 

To the point above, one of the central problems today is that trading has shifted almost completely to be a profit driven activity.  You may say that this is the nature of trading, and it always was to a certain extent, but there are also those that trade to get items, not for profit, but simply because they like those items and want to wear them in-game.   Let's call these people collectors.   The ratio of traders to collectors is at an all time high which is slowing down trading (at least high tier trading) because while people still want to get their hands on good hats, they still want a good deal.  

 

To me, there is a problem in this economy and I cannot figure out why Valve has done nothing in more than 9 months to address it (may even be longer actually):  there are too many items and this goes for stranges, craft hats, miscs, even unusuals.   We need a sink, not just for refined, but for all the other stuff too (I mentioned it before, but look to CSGO trade up contracts for a model that TF2 could emulate).   Also, wtf will we have another real crafting event??  EOTL crafting is long overdue.   But back on topic, there needs to be a permanent item sink, not just a sink like a crafting event that only lasts for a few days.   

 

Another thing I cannot understand is how Valve handles the influx of hats into the unusual economy.  So you retire hats like the Stash, Fedora, Noh and Veil, but you leave robo hats which nobody wants?  This doesn't make any sense for us (the unboxers and traders) or Valve, because it doesn't encourage unboxing.  Take out the shit hats (like most robo hats).  This will at least give those hats a bit of a boost.  Leave us the good hats.  Stashes and Veils for example were always going to be crazy expensive, discontinued or not....there was no reason to discontinue these hats and this move didn't help the unusual economy, it hindered it.   

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Another thing I cannot understand is how Valve handles the influx of hats into the unusual economy.  So you retire hats like the Stash, Fedora, Noh and Veil, but you leave robo hats which nobody wants?  This doesn't make any sense for us (the unboxers and traders) or Valve, because it doesn't encourage unboxing.  Take out the shit hats (like most robo hats).  This will at least give those hats a bit of a boost.  Leave us the good hats.  Stashes and Veils for example were always going to be crazy expensive, discontinued or not....there was no reason to discontinue these hats and this move didn't help the unusual economy, it hindered it.   

 

You can't imagine how much I agree with you on that part . 

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-snip-

 

Because valve doesn't care about the economy. It makes very little money off the economy. It cares about hype.

About new effects and new hats. Not about removing them. If the hats are still in the game, they're making money off them.

The second they REMOVE stuff, is the second they lose money. Refined dumps, like making craftable keys and shit, will only make them lose MORE money.

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