This site looks like it's going through one wild ride. What can I do?

[Jimster710]

    Hey everybody. I've played tf2 since 2010, and I only fairly recently got seriously into trading. Early on in my road, I was introduced to this incredible site, backpack.tf. It seemed a goldmine of valuable, community driven information that reflects and attempts to grasp some sort of sanity in the tf2 marketplace. A little while ago I started noticing a whole lot of buzz about the tf2 economy, mostly from merchants and such trying to get me to, "Buy now before it all comes crashing down!" But I digress, I started looking up items on this site for just about all of my trading. It wasn't up until recently that I started paying attention to the rise of certain, "tf2 commodities" if you will, some of you know what I'm talking about. Keys. I surfed around and found a surprising amount of info all around keys. I saw the huge price rise in keys, but at that point, I thought nothing of it at all, I thought, just as the real world stock market sometimes has a huge price hike in commodities, the same could apply in tf2. This was about when I came across a lot of information about a certain infamous member, Long218. I'm still finding out stuff I didn't know. It's all very fuzzy, considering I wasn't here for what seemed like the bloodiest, most flame ridden part. I heard say of cohorts inside backpack.tf, working with merchants of keys, metal prices, backpack manipulation. A plethora of words with a bite, if you will. I must say it was all very shocking. I know that this has almost everything to do with the price of keys, and it's wide implications. I know no one can completely grasp this ever changing tf2 market at the moment, but, I love tf2, and the way the economy is going at the point, the way that trading is such a huge part of the game now more than ever for some, I just want everything to be alright. I don't want these vast market trades or even small time deals effected by this site to in turn, effect my gameplay. I'm sure it already has. But, to the point, Admins of this site, anyone with insight into this issue at all, please, tell me what I can do as a tf2 player to help with this issue and help in any way, to ensure that my, and no one else's, gameplay is threatened by this virtual, and I don't use this word lightly, disaster. I ask only for someone to point me in the direction I need to head as a player, to help the player base in any way that I can. Thank you.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Some of the info I got, but take it all with a grain of salt, because I'm sure there's plenty going on that no one can properly guess at. http://imgur.com/a/t71sl

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm actually not entirely sure which one of the responses is the best answer here, if we take F charlies and derpehs and blatches together, I see a more clear answer coming together. I am still unsure whether or not this is a natural event, but, things did seem fine when keys were 2.66 and, now, they don't seem fine. Now, am I right in assuming that if metal had an actual value put upon by valve, instead of it being determined off of keys, a lot of these problems would be solved, correct? I mean if a key is worth X amount, and Y amount of metal can be traded to get a key, then Y is entirely dependent on X, until Z amount is set by valve, making Y amount obsolete, and thus Z amount of metal will always equal, (Compensating for the "1 scrap range") X amount of keys. You may want to read over that one again Took a bit to work through in my head hope it makes sense.

[MC22]

TLDR;

Key manipulation bp.tf nub in da house

[♠Derpeh♤]

okay basically to answer you Qs about keys here: http://tf2finance.com/2013_03/

 

Essentially summing it up:

 

--Keys are 2.5$ from store, metal is free you play you get. More players = more metal so they start bidding up prices of keys.

 

--The hammer of carders from valve stopping the economy's black market supply of "cheap keys"

 

--Valve introducing the upgrade to premium making idlers alot more effect in idling since you dont need a credit card now.

 

-- valve's continuous "new shit" the pyro then halloween then christmas then new years then robo then summer sale...etc people buy keys uncrate and mostly get a crappy craft hat. IE ising a key and getting metal so even greater supply of metal and less keys.

 

Votes on key prices mean next to nothing since everone wants keys to go down and vote regardless of the proof.

 

Hope i helped

[✔ P I X E L A T E D ✔]

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[@@@@@@]

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he needs some  Â¶

[Blatch]

You said this site was going through a wild ride? Well, you don't know the half of it. In a nutshell, here's everything that's happened to this game other than the increase of key prices:

 

• A lot of people say the TF2 economy is "crashing", as the amount of players playing this game has pretty much hit critical mass. Well, is it? I wouldn't consider it to be permanently crashing. It's more in a recession, and most of that can be traced to Genuines and Vintages, which went down by a lot starting after the summer update, where the influx of wallet money caused a lot of people to spend their money on the items and dump them on trading sites for a cheap profit. This, combined with a new feature that allows people to disclude items with special qualities from the crafting blueprint (mainly to prevent people from mistakedly crafting Unusuals, but also thought many to believe that they, and other items with those qualities, couldn't be crafted into outright), caused some Genuine craft hats to dip below the 1.33 mark from sheer oversupply.
• The old promos have also been going down, particularly the stuff nobody wants, like the Big Kill, and Ellis' Cap (which, like some Genuines, has also fell to 1.22), but no promo has suffered more than Bill's Hat. It's only gone down one key since a month ago, but that one key has been very controversial. The initial drop was heavily contested by many, who thought that the economy was being sabotaged, but eventually, people came to accept the drop. Even if it may be 7 keys, there's proof that it could go even lower in the future.
• The one item that has been going up (and in force), is the Strange weapon. A lot of them have made large gains since the crazy Summer update (more on that later), the biggest offender being the Quick-Fix, which, after a big balance was made to it, shot up to more than a key from just 0.33 in the matter of days.
• The same Summer update also removed the vaunted Polycount bonuses from the various item sets. Every Polycount required hat has since reverted to craft hat price, even the Familiar Fez.
• And finally (this is the part you might want to pay attention about if you're only concerned with keys), idling is now impossible, another part of the Summer update. Well, it's not completely impossible, but you're going to have to resort to outside programs if you want to make bank off this game, and those were never a good thing since they could get your account VAC banned. This is what makes claims of the economy "crashing" ironic, but actually fitting: there's not as much metal coming in, so most item prices are decreasing to compensate for that.

[F CHARLIE]

This will help you a bit more. The most important componant is the paypal sales of ref and keys. Ref sells for about $0.34 in paypal exchanges. Right now the key trades at 5.77 ref. Do the math, that means you can buy a key, with purchased ref, for $1.90ish. Now do you see why the key trade price has to rise. I know most players are not involved in paypal trading but that is what needs to happen is for people to understand this reason for the rise and to recognize that it is natural. In essence, its about public relations and about teaching.

[Jimster710]

This will help you a bit more. The most important componant is the paypal sales of ref and keys. Ref sells for about $0.34 in paypal exchanges. Right now the key trades at 5.77 ref. Do the math, that means you can buy a key, with purchased ref, for $1.90ish. Now do you see why the key trade price has to rise. I know most players are not involved in paypal trading but that is what needs to happen is for people to understand this reason for the rise and to recognize that it is natural. In essence, its about public relations and about teaching.

I hear what you're saying, but you just put a big whole in your statement yourself, most tf2 users just plain and simply don't use paypal, and hence, the market isn't as greatly affected by paypal, then say, the suggestions that are accepted on backpack.tf.

[polar]

I hear what you're saying, but you just put a big whole in your statement yourself, most tf2 users just plain and simply don't use paypal, and hence, the market isn't as greatly affected by paypal, then say, the suggestions that are accepted on backpack.tf.

Keys used to be worth 1.20. Think about that for a sec. Does that make any sense? Lets just say due to a variety of changes, many by valve, the price of keys has returned to what it should be.

 

People who lay the primary blame on this website are either pissed that this website has reduced their ability to shark, limited their profitability of their massive rep farming, or simply don't understand how a market works (many cause they are probably under 15).

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

mainly cause they are probably under 15.

You mean 12-year old motherfuckers. (literally)

[Woifi The Viking]

If people are upset they need someone or something to blame. And it's way easier to follow some populists than thinking of it your own.

[There]

You're wrong that the amount of points a suggestion has doesn't matter. Well, you didn't say that, but you used it as evidence (pun intended). When price moderators make a decision on a suggestion, they take the amount of points said suggestion has into account. Backpack.tf's key price would be 1 scrap now, while keys would be selling for 6 refined on outpost, and the whole site would lose credibility. 

 

When I first started using backpack.tf, I thought the same thing: this site is manipulating the price of keys. But, rather than coming here and complaining about it, why don't you look at the key suggestions yourself? If a key suggestion suggests that keys should be valued at, say, 4.55-4.66, then look at the proof. Are there keys being sold for 4.66, if so, what's the problem? It's not manipulation. It's reflection.

[F CHARLIE]

I hear what you're saying, but you just put a big whole in your statement yourself, most tf2 users just plain and simply don't use paypal, and hence, the market isn't as greatly affected by paypal, then say, the suggestions that are accepted on backpack.tf.

 

The ones that do are doing so in very high volume and are a big componant of a lot of the trade currency moving around.

[F CHARLIE]

Btw, the trade economy will not crash until player/traders no longer want to play and buy stuff in order to form their image or in some other way express themselves. That's what its all about. Instead of new jeans, tshirt etc., its virtual hats, misc items. This is the first game I know of that effectivly integrates so many facates of life while also being a very solid multiplayer game with really emersive rolls for each class.

 

In reality, new players will join, old players will take breaks. Look at MTG. I started playing right at the tail end of Antiquties and stopped around the time mirage was released. I remember thinking that the game had mostly run its course and not much more could be done.

 

As long as people stay interested valve will keep capable and creative people involved.

[☣Long218☢]

wasup