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Bill's Hat Cooldown?


A Delicious Cashew

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I think we need a cool down time for bill's hats, just like we do with keys, or bills will be the new fez

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5205b73f4bd7b8431100000f

baloo is making a good point here, most new/young traders follow backpack.tf prices, and if they see their item is falling they try to sell it so they don't lose 10% of their backpack value. Then a handful sellers sell cheaper and we record the price, and then the cycle continues. 

 

Thoughts?

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Honestly I don't believe in cool downs. We should report accurate prices as much as we can at all times, that is the goal of the site. We can't control if people try to sell lower because they're afraid to lose value if it's on a down hill.

 

I like to point out extremes to show how a system may or may not function. Let's take for example a paint that's available in the store.

 

Admin accepts a price of 1 key. 1 hour later, VALVe announces a sale and the same paint is now 50% off. Sorry, can't update the price because there's a cool down?

 

Now there used to be a cool-down when the voting system first launched. The site wouldn't allow a suggestion on an item that had a price accepted in the past 48 hours or so. Eventually it was removed because accuracy is important.

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Honestly I don't believe in cool downs. We should report accurate prices as much as we can at all times, that is the goal of the site. We can't control if people try to sell lower because they're afraid to lose value if it's on a down hill.

 

I like to point out extremes to show how a system may or may not function. Let's take for example a paint that's available in the store.

 

Admin accepts a price of 1 key. 1 hour later, VALVe announces a sale and the same paint is now 50% off. Sorry, can't update the price because there's a cool down?

 

Now there used to be a cool-down when the voting system first launched. The site wouldn't allow a suggestion on an item that had a price accepted in the past 48 hours or so. Eventually it was removed because accuracy is important.

 

Agreed

 

 

Like keys, it is best to let this item find its natural demand lvl as soon as possible now that is no longer the trade currency it once was. It can be again once it gets there.

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Like keys, it is best to let this item find its natural demand lvl as soon as possible now that is no longer the trade currency it once was. It can be again once it gets there.

mehh, bills has always been one of the few currencies that no one ever actually viewed as currency. Even when bills were pretty stable at 8 keys, i was still valuing them around 7+ a bit as i would any item. 

 

Ever since Steam Trade was added (and you could make trades for more than 8 items) bills lost their appeal.

Previously, it had been 6 keys for black bills, 2 black/white bills for 1 bud. But since you can make trades of more than 8 items, theres really no purpose for bills anymore. 

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Honestly I don't believe in cool downs. We should report accurate prices as much as we can at all times, that is the goal of the site. We can't control if people try to sell lower because they're afraid to lose value if it's on a down hill.

 

I like to point out extremes to show how a system may or may not function. Let's take for example a paint that's available in the store.

 

Admin accepts a price of 1 key. 1 hour later, VALVe announces a sale and the same paint is now 50% off. Sorry, can't update the price because there's a cool down?

 

Now there used to be a cool-down when the voting system first launched. The site wouldn't allow a suggestion on an item that had a price accepted in the past 48 hours or so. Eventually it was removed because accuracy is important.

I do agree, however for keys, isn't part of the cooldown rules something like you can't change the price UNLESS there's been a major event? If we did a cooldown for your example, that would qualify as a major event, and could warrant a price drop.

Maybe just a cooldown for currencies/maybe promos or something?

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meh bills have been overpriced for along time it basically doubled in price (usd terms) because people didnt want it to be lower than 8 keys and refused to accept that 8 key sales took a while :l

 

How people were willing to pay full price for white/black paint is beyond me...

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Admin accepts a price of 1 key. 1 hour later, VALVe announces a sale and the same paint is now 50% off. Sorry, can't update the price because there's a cool down?

 

Now there used to be a cool-down when the voting system first launched. The site wouldn't allow a suggestion on an item that had a price accepted in the past 48 hours or so. Eventually it was removed because accuracy is important.

 

I don't think there should be a hard system suggestion lock for reasons like this. But I still think a soft rule would be a very good idea. Exceptions in place for Valve-induced events and for counter suggestions, but admins closing for standard reprices in too short a period of time. Too rapid of reprices can very well lead to bp.tf leading the market instead of following it.

 

I was pushing strongly for such a rule before, but it fell apart due to the issue of how to handle cooldown periods regarding new items. I still think it's worth looking into, but it's something that needs to be fully drawn out for all situations and have all the admins behind for it to work.

 

Regarding the Bill's, I think it could use a similar cooldown rule as to keys right now. It's already vey unstable and bp.tf rapid pricings will only stir the pot, so to speak. Not to mention that with things all over the place, a clear picture can only be received with a good period of time, rather than every 12 hours.

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bills isnt currency anymore so this dosent really matter, but i dont like how items going down because people selling for lower pricea again and again and again..

 

thats how genuine marcs pride scarf fall from 17 keys to 4 keys

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mehh, bills has always been one of the few currencies that no one ever actually viewed as currency. Even when bills were pretty stable at 8 keys, i was still valuing them around 7+ a bit as i would any item. 

 

Ever since Steam Trade was added (and you could make trades for more than 8 items) bills lost their appeal.

Previously, it had been 6 keys for black bills, 2 black/white bills for 1 bud. But since you can make trades of more than 8 items, theres really no purpose for bills anymore.

 

 

The drop in bills is because there are fewer mid lvl items for which a currency between keys and buds are needed. It will likely be above Team Captian but below Ebeneezer.

 

 

 

 

bills isnt currency anymore so this dosent really matter, but i dont like how items going down because people selling for lower pricea again and again and again..

 

thats how genuine marcs pride scarf fall from 17 keys to 4 keys

 

In essence, nothing lost value. Keys gained buying power and there are tons more options for buyer. 4 keys now is like 8 keys last November.

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...so, uh...umm...I guess now wouldn't be the best time to say this, but I was just kinda doing some late night trolling...I honestly didn't think anyone particularly notice or care...I used to do this on some of MerryCatch's suggestions and key suggestions where I'd type out a random argument and make it sound smart. Its fun because you tend to get people liking your comment and it angers the suggester (MC22 had the best reactions, he even messaged me on the forums about it). Sorry for all the commotion. I don't really care at all about Bill's Hats since I'm not in the market for 'em.

 

PS: I did get the desired reaction out of DB9PRO though, his jimmies seemed quite rustled.  ^_^

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...so, uh...umm...I guess now wouldn't be the best time to say this, but I was just kinda doing some late night trolling...I honestly didn't think anyone particularly notice or care...I used to do this on some of MerryCatch's suggestions and key suggestions where I'd type out a random argument and make it sound smart. Its fun because you tend to get people liking your comment and it angers the suggester (MC22 had the best reactions, he even messaged me on the forums about it). Sorry for all the commotion. I don't really care at all about Bill's Hats since I'm not in the market for 'em.

 

PS: I did get the desired reaction out of DB9PRO though, his jimmies seemed quite rustled.  ^_^

solution:

don't look @suggestion, don't comment, dont care about downvotes, and wait for suggestion to be accepted as always. Admins (hopefully) and see through the bullshit.

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...so, uh...umm...I guess now wouldn't be the best time to say this, but I was just kinda doing some late night trolling...I honestly didn't think anyone particularly notice or care...I used to do this on some of MerryCatch's suggestions and key suggestions where I'd type out a random argument and make it sound smart. Its fun because you tend to get people liking your comment and it angers the suggester (MC22 had the best reactions, he even messaged me on the forums about it). Sorry for all the commotion. I don't really care at all about Bill's Hats since I'm not in the market for 'em.

 

PS: I did get the desired reaction out of DB9PRO though, his jimmies seemed quite rustled.  ^_^

 

who is ever serious on the interwebz ? atleast not me

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thats how genuine marcs pride scarf fall from 17 keys to 4 keys

Think that was more due to the mercs muffler coming out which looks alot better xD

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Yea, Bill has not really been a currency for a long time. 

All those suggestions are will quiet down when the Bill price stabilize at an appropriate lower price. 

I suspect it will reach 5-6 keys after taking account how much key price had raised.

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Yea, Bill has not really been a currency for a long time. 

All those suggestions are will quiet down when the Bill price stabilize at an appropriate lower price. 

I suspect it will reach 5-6 keys after taking account how much key price had raised.

 

"after taking into account how much keys have risen"

 

According to the backpack.tf graphs, Bill's Hats were priced at 8 keys on August 23, 2012. May 14, 2013 is when the first suggestion dropping Bill's Hats was accepted on backpack.tf.

 

On the other hand, keys jumped from being priced at 2.5-2.66 refined to 5-5.11 refined during that same time period.

 

That is basically a doubling of the price of keys relative to refined. I'm not sure exactly how you accounted for keys raising effecting Bill's Hats, but if you're talking about inversely proportional, then Bill's Hats should have been decreasing at the same rate and should have reached 4 keys by now. There should have at least have been small shifts in price of Bill's Hats during the time that keys doubled in price if the price of keys was truly a primary factor in the price of Bill's Hats.

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"after taking into account how much keys have risen"

 

According to the backpack.tf graphs, Bill's Hats were priced at 8 keys on August 23, 2012. May 14, 2013 is when the first suggestion dropping Bill's Hats was accepted on backpack.tf.

 

On the other hand, keys jumped from being priced at 2.5-2.66 refined to 5-5.11 refined during that same time period.

 

That is basically a doubling of the price of keys relative to refined. I'm not sure exactly how you accounted for keys raising effecting Bill's Hats, but if you're talking about inversely proportional, then Bill's Hats should have been decreasing at the same rate and should have reached 4 keys by now. There should have at least have been small shifts in price of Bill's Hats during the time that keys doubled in price if the price of keys was truly a primary factor in the price of Bill's Hats.

 

ahha yes, I mean inverse proportion. Thanks for clarifying. 

How low bill will drop is probably a different topic.

I was just thinking that Bill suggestion will slow down significantly once the price stabilize where it should be.

The number of suggestion now is appropriate as it reflect mood of the traders and crashing price of Bill's hat.

 

Here is my off-topic discussion of Bill's price:

I got the 5-6 key range from calculating how much key price in term of $ had raised. It spike from 1.3$ to 1.8$(around that $)(TF2 finance) since steam market. That is a 38% increase.

So technically, bill key price should drop at most by 38%, which is around 5.7 keys. This assuming that bill didn't gain any fundamental value in term of rarity and popularity. 

However, it will can go lower than 5.7 because of the fast downward trend. A charging bear often break down fundamental price resistance in stocks. So, it can reach 5 keys, which is a good technical resistance point.

If that don't stop the trend, it can even reach 4.5 key or worst case scenario of 4 keys. 

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Ah, thanks for clarifying. I guess I had been thinking in-game value, though the monetary value is more likely a better basis to calculate how key prices could inversely effect the price of Bill's Hats.

 

I mean clearly buds haven't dropped to 13-14 keys, so basing keys rising relative to refined would be wrong, though monetary wise I believe it works out better because as keys increased in value, so did buds from $32 to $40, but the price in keys had been dropping.

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Bills used to be 20 ref..so if you go by that, Bills could be 3.5 keys.

 

There should be a general cool down rule.

1. Keys can't have a new suggestion for 1 week unless if there's a good reason(like some event)

2. All items need a cool down of 3 days unless if the item is a month old at most, or a major reason(a festive version of a rare strange would be good reason)

Sometimes when an item is lowered in price, for the next day or two, a lot of traders try to quicksell..things usually calm down by the 3rd day.

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Exceptions in place for Valve-induced events and for counter suggestions, but admins closing for standard reprices in too short a period of time.

And if the event is ... a rapid change in price?  Just acknowledge that the pricelist is going to lag by weeks+ in that case?

 

 

 

Too rapid of reprices can very well lead to bp.tf leading the market instead of following it.

I don't follow (heh).  Suggestions are supported by evidence.  The evidence is there, or it's not.  

 

I think what you mean is that frequent updates may cause the pricelist to show transient maxima/minima more often, and that that's undesirable.  I'd disagree for two reasons, one: the three day lag between suggestion and approval is a defacto cooldown that dampens these transients; and two, quoting myself:

 

If the goal is a smooth, non-spiky price graph, the correct way to accomplish that is to measure spot pricing accurately, and produce a moving average from those measurements. Not to bias all suggestions in favor of the previous (likewise biased) price.

 

 

Limiting suggestion frequency is really a form of existing-price bias (using the time domain instead of price domain).  Everything I said in the linked thread applies here.

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