Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

~shenanigans

13th Hour Milkman

Recommended Posts

~shenanigans

So I recently suggested a price for this hat http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5134f6294bd7b82e5a00000e , but there might be some shady business going on.

 

11:15 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: hi
11:15 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: how can i help you
11:15 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: the 13th hour Milkman price you helped set is based on BS
11:15 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: ?
11:15 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: is it now
11:16 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: what is your proof of this?
11:16 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: well considering that it was based on that Grimm hat -1 bud trade
11:16 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: yea
11:16 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: when i suggested the price, it was based exactly on grim hat -1 bud
11:16 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: right
11:17 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: grim sells for 7.5-8.5
11:17 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: so i suggested 6.5-7.5
11:17 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: those two were working together to set the price
11:17 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: im sorry, what?
11:17 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: they "traded" each other
11:18 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: but now both are selling the hat
11:18 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: maybe the other trader just forgot to delete the trade?
11:18 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: no
11:19 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: and the bud went back and forth between them
11:19 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: hmm
11:19 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: interesting...
11:19 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: hold on
11:19 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: yes you're correct about the bud going back
11:19 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: they moved the buf
11:19 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: i see it in the inventory
11:19 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: i have Screen shots
11:20 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: http://imgur.com/Z32vaPj
11:20 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: yea i see that
11:20 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: pretty shady stuff going on here, eh?
11:20 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: and they Milkman
11:21 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: and the Grim has gone back and forth as well
11:21 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: yea it has...
11:21 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: however, i can't really use this as incriminating evidence
11:21 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: really
11:22 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: the price is based on total bs
11:22 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: the last sale price was a quicksell at 5.5 buds, and 3 months ago this hat was sold for 6-7 in unusuals
11:22 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: right
11:22 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: but todays was set based on some really shady
11:22 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: shit
11:22 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: indeed it was
11:23 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: but im afraid i did not know about this shady business at the time
11:23 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: i think it warrents the hats price being set back to unknown
11:23 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: until it sells for rea
11:23 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: real
11:23 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: unfortunately, that's not possible...
11:23 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: this is why people do not trust backpack.tf
11:24 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: its price rigging
11:24 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: ?
11:24 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: i'm not rigging the price at all
11:24 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: i didnt say you were
11:24 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: they were
11:24 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: and now a hat that last sold for 5.5 is listed with a max of 7.7
11:25 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: well, we can only price by completed trades
11:25 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: it's about a bud off
11:25 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: by this line of logic
11:26 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: is more about the fact that they were conspiring to inflate the price with a BS trade
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: I don't quite understand their motivation behind doing this
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: because there is only one hat
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: so only one person actually gains anything from price rigging
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: if it is actually a price rigging attempt
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: both of them have good steam rep standing
11:27 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: well if there is no set price and now
11:27 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: and trade fairly regularly
11:28 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: there is one, that 5.5 becomes a whole lot more
11:28 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: 5.5 was a quicksell price
11:28 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: right
11:28 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: and it was taken almost instantly
11:29 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: because no one offed anything because there was no set prcie
11:29 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: price
11:29 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: once a foundation is set
11:30 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: there were offers of a v.medal - 5 buds and the sale from three months ago
11:31 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: I'll document this and see what others think, if you don't mind
11:32 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: sure
11:32 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: its prettty fishy
11:33 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: why would that bud and thoses hats float back and forth between them, and why now is the original seller of the milkman selling it for the buyer
11:33 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: as a "broker"
11:34 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: idk
11:34 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: Ö> woodenturkey [N]: you sold Temple s>someunusuals. burning grim
Saito: yup.
Ö> woodenturkey [N]: but now they are selling your hat
Saito: thast because hes brokering it for me.
Saito: its called
Saito: "friendship'
Saito: lul.
Saito: besides, offers are much bette
11:34 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: i don't want to baselessly accuse people of anything
11:34 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: did you see my cut and paste just now
11:34 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: yea
11:34 PM - (ノ´▽`)ノ♪ ~shenanigans: i'll put this up on the forum and get some thoughts
11:39 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: for easy viewing
11:39 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: http://imgur.com/6UNIPAj,WmdkOKH,gusIEBQ
11:40 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: just look at the bud
11:40 PM - Ö> woodenturkey [N]: it seems he gave him the bud so that he could pay him with it


What do you guys think?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AwesomeMcCoolName

Well, I just took a look at the other prices on the milkman and the tossle, and its current price fits in with the others pretty well.... 

 

And its just further verified by the medal-5 bud offer (assuming its valid)...

 

The only problem with looking at any of his offers, is that he's already done 1 sketchy thing, so a lot of his offers could be fake... 

And prices based on comparisons aren't all that accurate (for obvious reasons)....

 

Honestly it might be a good idea to reset the price to nothing, at least for the time being...... 

 

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8850844

--the v. medal offer fell through

--Cloudy jeepcap+.5 (7~) 

http://www.tf2outpost.com/trade/8858791

--misty sgts+1 bud (7.6~)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

If the hat was really worth that much why were they so willing to take my Moon Whoopee  (which TBO is only fetching the low end of the backpack.tf price) and some minor sweets for a potential loss?

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/fvqBaeu.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Woifi The Viking

Remove that , from your suggestion link. Well under this circumstances 6-7 would be a better range or even 5.5-6.5.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

Well, I just took a look at the other prices on the milkman and the tossle, and its current price fits in with the others pretty well.... 

 

And its just further verified by the medal-5 bud offer (assuming its valid)...

 

The only problem with looking at any of his offers, is that he's already done 1 sketchy thing, so a lot of his offers could be fake... 

And prices based on comparisons aren't all that accurate (for obvious reasons)....

 

Honestly it might be a good idea to reset the price to nothing, at least for the time being...... 

 

Were they necessarily doing it as price manipulation though? Neither came to this site to try to use it to set a price.

"Temple | LF> Soldier Unusuals 13th Hour Milkman + 1 bud 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3:

StarStan | :o Possibly.... though i dont know the reason for all those faces... they.... scare mee...."

 

It does come across as two users that have known each other for a while. The trade, the item swapping, and the whole 'now brokering for the guy I sold it to' is odd, but it doesn't say manipulation to me. They didn't even try to use the 'sale' in the next trade they put up. The users themselves aren't making use of it, and with so many unusuals out there, it's more chance that it ended up getting used in pricing.

 

All in all? I don't think it should be used in pricing- a trade hardly has meaning when you're so free to be swapping items all the time- but at the same time I wouldn't say it means the users themselves are intending anything nefarious, and I wouldn't say it invalidates all the other offers they've received.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

Were they necessarily doing it as price manipulation though? Neither came to this site to try to use it to set a price.

"Temple | LF> Soldier Unusuals 13th Hour Milkman + 1 bud 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3: 3:

StarStan | :o Possibly.... though i dont know the reason for all those faces... they.... scare mee...."

 

It does come across as two users that know each other for a while. The trade, the item swapping, and the whole 'now brokering for the guy I sold it to' is odd, but it doesn't say manipulation to me. They didn't even try to use the 'sale' in the next trade they put up. The users themselves aren't making use of it, and with so many unusuals out there, it's more chance that it ended up getting used in pricing.

 

All in all? I don't think it should be used in pricing- a trade hardly has meaning when you're so free to be swapping items all the time- but at the same time I wouldn't say it means the users themselves are intending anything nefarious, and I wouldn't say it invalidates all the other offers they've received.

 

 

Then why did the person selling the Burning Grimm give a bud to the person buying his hat for a bud and 13th Milkman just for them to turn around and give them the same bud back? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

Who knows? But do people need to justify every little movement of their items in case people go inventory snooping?

 

They didn't ask for it to be pricechecked, they didn't make any attempt to get it priced, they aren't using it as a baseline for their own trades. Shenanigans used it to price it, but they had no involvement in that happening. What they're doing with their items is ultimately their own business.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

Who knows? But do people need to justify every little movement of their items in case people go inventory snooping?

 

They didn't ask for it to be pricechecked, they didn't make any attempt to get it priced, they aren't using it as a baseline for their own trades. Shenanigans used it to price it, but they had no involvement in that happening. What they're doing with their items is ultimately their own business.

Really now.... The whole basis of the current price is a result of this trade. Everyone knows that this place bases its estimates on outpost trades. You don't have to have something PC'ed. Just create a bunch of fake offers and trades, then let the crew here base the price on those. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Uranium235

If they were trying to manipulate, look at it this way:

 

We have to assume they are not dumb, as a price manipulation attempt takes at least some brains.

 

They would've not traded for real at all and just rely on the offers they made to be sufficient as evidence. Once the price is set, they could easily argue their way out (if caught) by saying the deal did not go through eventually for whatever reason.

 

If they knew / suspected someone might watch their inventory and item history to confirm, they would not trade them back shortly after.

That is even worse and more obvious than not trading for real at all.

 

So:

If they conspired to raise the price, there would've been a far less risky way with about the same chance of success of doing it by not trading at all.

If they are in fact the same person (alt), it would've been smarter to just sell again with the other account instead of trading back (or brokering).

If they know and trust each other (well), they might indeed broker for each other and have the bud and Grim as collateral, for example.

They could've also decided to revert the trade for some other reason.

 

So, whatever the reason for the switcheroo, a manipulation attempt seems not to be the most likely reason.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Woifi The Viking

Who knows? But do people need to justify every little movement of their items in case people go inventory snooping?

 

They didn't ask for it to be pricechecked, they didn't make any attempt to get it priced, they aren't using it as a baseline for their own trades. Shenanigans used it to price it, but they had no involvement in that happening. What they're doing with their items is ultimately their own business.

But they came here and suggested a (way too high) price for it. And shenanigans just suggested a "correct" price to the proof the community gathered mostly. So yeah, they traded and then they came here.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

Damn, you're right. That was the first thing I checked, but the bp.tf steam username hadn't updated. I didn't look closer and assumed it was someone else.

 

Alright, there goes my entire argument crumbling into dust.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Uranium235

Mine too, guess they were dumb after all.

I wonder if that is enough to get them both marked. Someone should at least try and make a report in the OP forum.

 

As both are selling now, at the very least I will report the one that has the trade open but not in his backpack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

I don't think a witchhunt should be brought down on their heads. They still weren't trying to leverage that trade as a sign of its value.

 

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5134b9afba25366c30000008

 

It started off as nothing, when proof was requested the suggester pointed towards the friend's trade, was reluctant to bring up the burning grimm trade. Seems like genuine cluelessness rather than a plot for someone to dig up the trade and use it to set a price, and at a lower value than they wanted to set. If they really were putting together this complicated plan, they wouldn't be doing something as stupid as trading back the items between each other.

 

Might be worth seeing if the value on the Milkman can be reset until it's priced around something that isn't so controversial. But I still don't think they should be attacked as manipulators.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Uranium235

The fact they are both trying to sell at the same time now, makes me very suspicious. The only other time I had experience with that was when the other account was in fact an Alt. In this case I suspect 2 different people that know and trust each other very well, possibly in real life. Otherwise they would not need to switch.

 

They didn't have to provide the evidence themselves, as there is only that one on the market. They knew everybody interested in the suggestion will be looking for it and then make a new suggestion if the one he made was obviously wrong, but the one for sale indicates the current price is also wrong.

But that one for sale and the offer was faked, it seems.

 

Kinda ingenious, if you think about it. But not thought through all the way obviously.

 

edit: I guess the name change is no coincidence too

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

The fact they are both trying to sell at the same time now, makes me very suspicious. The only other time I had experience with that was when the other account was in fact an Alt.

 

They didn't have to provide the evidence themselves, as there is only that one on the market. They knew everybody interested in the suggestion will be looking for it and then make a new suggestion if the one he made was obviously wrong, but the one for sale indicates the current price is also wrong.

But that one for sale and the offer was faked, it seems.

 

Kinda ingenious, if you think about it. But not thought through all the way obviously.

 

And no one has yet to explain the bud being swapped around. If wanted to make a trade look legit, I would make sure that the log showed the the Grim was traded for the Milkman and a Bud. He "paid" them a bud and Milkman for the grim, but the bud came from the Grimm person, went to the Milkman, then back to the Grimm seller. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Uranium235

Wherever the items came from or are now, it is obvious to me they are working together closely or are even the same person.

So it doesn't really matter where what came from and is now. The fact they are both selling the same item at the same time now confirms this.

Although that does not make a lot of sense other than they are hijacked accounts and want to get rid of it fast. But then again, I think assuming they are particularly smart is not what one has to assume about them (him).

 

Anyway, someone should probably make a new suggestion with the old range and a link to this discussion as proof, since the suggestion cannot and should not be undone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
~shenanigans

I'm not sure if I buy the "they're one person" argument. Both of them seem to be fairly active traders, with some trade history and a good amount of time played in tf2. I think they are probably two separate people, who for some reason are working together... I don't know what their motivation is, except raising the price of the milkman from nothing to a value of ~7 buds. The other sales show that this hat can get 5.5 and 6, so why would two of them risk being caught to make the hat 1 bud higher? Also, one person might have paid the other a bud to collaborate in this, but then what is the motivation for doing this if they barely gain any profit?

However, their current actions do seem very strange...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

I'm not sure if I buy the "they're one person" argument. Both of them seem to be fairly active traders, with some trade history and a good amount of time played in tf2. I think they are probably two separate people, who for some reason are working together... I don't know what their motivation is, except raising the price of the milkman from nothing to a value of ~7 buds. The other sales show that this hat can get 5.5 and 6, so why would two of them risk being caught to make the hat 1 bud higher? Also, one person might have paid the other a bud to collaborate in this, but then what is the motivation for doing this if they barely gain any profit?

However, their current actions do seem very strange...

People are greedy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

Agreed about not buying 'they're one person'. Beyond trading activity, a glance at the steam profiles makes it extremely doubtful one's an alt. Loaded friend's lists, lots of comments, different groups. Even different writing styles. It'd have to be supervillain levels of planning and preperation for it to turn out to be one person.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Uranium235

I too don't think they are the same person, but it doesn't really matter, they act like one together.

If I had to decide, I would ban them here, on OP and even mark them on SR and see what defense they come up with in their appeal.

People have been banned and marked for way less...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
woodenturkey

I never once said i thought they were the same person. My point is that this type of behavior (if true) weakens the foundation of generating valid valuations of unusuals. This entire site is based on the concept of judging the value of an item based on valid offers. And i'm sure there are many other people doing this type of (alleged) market manipulation. If people start to lose faith in this system (which TBO a lot of people scorn this place and its values already) then what will the site be left with?    

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Distinctively Vincent

There's been a couple more trades since. The first seems to involve a green energy milkman and blizzard company man, the second a sunbeams conquistador.

 

Can't tell the details as none of it was done through outpost, I'm mainly glancing at histories for this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...