The Once and Future King Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 All I can say is that you exploited / used the game in a way only very few did and it was never meant to be used. Too bad those "golden days" are over. Why do you think craftables and drops are not marketable, and likely never will be? Valve did that with intention, and I dare say it's even more fair for the majority of players. Besides that, wouldn't the gain in ref you got from all those unusuals and stranges not make up for the "loss" in value of your craft hats many times over (if you like ref so much)? Looking at your backpack history, I can see no indication that you lost anything at all, especially not since Oct last year. Well, I never said I liked ref. I'm saying the fact is that hats did loose value, you admit ref has lost value, and thus if the hat value in ref is the same then that means that hats (and all other ref priced items) did in fact loose value. As far as my backpack goes, backpack.tf doesn't take into account the amount of money I spend on items or keys either. I'm not complaining because I lost money, I don't really care. I'm just trying to straiten the facts out, and no hats (and other items) have not lost value in terms of ref but if ref value goes down and those items still stay the same in ref then simple logic dictates that the item's also lost value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uranium235 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 My point being: who (besides you obv) cares about the value of Refined (or craft hats) in real money? Inside the TF2 economy everything is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Well, prices shouldn't change at all. I saw people buying unusuals for a key each, does that mean that unusuals are now going to be worth a key each? And people shouldn't be able to vote for prices because they just want to make profit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Prices shouldn't change if the supply/demand changes? Huh? I'll say it again, when keys were 2.66 Ref, there were only 10,000 registered Outpost users, now there are 300,000, so the demand has increased exponetially.....Now, you can make the assumption that the supply has also increased a great deal, but has it increased at the same rate? Also, with the introduction of the marketplace not all keys are being sold for metal, in-fact, a TON are being sold on the markeplace (effectively cutting the supply)...Now, i don't know how many keys are sold for Cash each day, and how many for Ref, but its at least 10% (most probably more like 20-30%), which would make a HUGE difference in the supply considering the huge demand... "I saw people buying unusuals for a key each" No, you saw people TRYING to buy unusuals for a key each..... Also, quickbuyers do NOT set the market.... Also, unusuals aren't really going to drop since keys aren't actually raising...It's Ref thats falling, so anything that can be crafted (weapons/hats) will continue to lose value as Ref does, while anything that can't be made with metal (Keys/Promos/Unusuals) will remain more or less constant. Now, an interesting question is, will stranges value go up? Technically they should since it now costs more to unbox, so there could potentially be less unboxes, but atm, stranges have yet to be affected. "And people shouldn't be able to vote for prices because they just want to make profit.." And this is why mods will often accept/reject a suggestion against the voters if the proof doesn't support it....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Nothing should change at all, only because there are more people now doesn't mean to higher the value of keys ( or lower the value of metal ), that doesn't make any sense. Lot's of people aren't able to get keys anymore because the price is just too high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Nothing should change at all, only because there are more people now doesn't mean to higher the value of keys ( or lower the value of metal ), that doesn't make any sense. Lot's of people aren't able to get keys anymore because the price is just too high.. What..... You're telling me an increased demand doesn't lead to a higher price?....More people want keys, therefore, more people are competeting against eachother, therefore, higher prices... And metal is decreasing due to large numbers of idle accounts injecting tens of thousands of additional Refined into the market....Ref farming has increased dramatically, resulting in it being almost worthless. And by "Lots of people" i assume you mean you?, and Frankly, it doesn't matter....People are willing to pay the current price (and more), so thats the price...No one actually cares if you can afford keys or not...it just doesn't matter.... You can't afford a burning Team Captain either, should the price of that be lowered so you and everyone else can afford it? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 And by "Lots of people" i assume you mean you? No, not me but i know a lot of people who can't get keys anymore because of this. And that's still no reason to increase a price, everything will be fine if the price won't change at all and if keys would be still worth at least 2.66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 No, not me but i know a lot of people who can't get keys anymore because of this. And that's still no reason to increase a price, everything will be fine if the price won't change at all and if keys would be still worth at least 2.66. So what? Those people also can't afford buds, should we lower the price of buds as well? And the price isn't increasing....Ref is decreasing, the demand for keys has increased, while the demand for ref has decreased... Simple supply and demand...There are plenty of reasons why the key-to-metal ratio is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 So what? Those people also can't afford buds, should we lower the price of buds as well? I told you already, the best thing is to not change the prices at all, and everyone is trying to make profit on outpost so eh... Just tell me, what would happen if the prices would stay like they are already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 I told you already, the best thing is to not change the prices at all, and everyone is trying to make profit on outpost so eh... Just tell me, what would happen if the prices would stay like they are already? Backpack.tf does NOT control the market....Buyers are willing to pay what sellers are asking, sellers sell too quickly, and raise their prices, and the buyers pay up...... Why is the best thing to not change the price? Sellers are asking for more, and people are willing to pay more...So whats the problem? just because some people can't afford keys doesn't matter (again, its like saying you should lower the price of buds because those people can't afford them either).... And I've already explained quite clearly and thouroughly why the key-to-metal ratio is increasing.... So, i don't have to explain anything... BUT, why don't you explain why keys need to stop rising (and "people can't afford them" is Not a valid argument). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 Well arguing about it is useless anyway. I didn't say that buds have to get lower, all i said is not to change to price at all. Only some buyers are willing to pay what the sellers are asking for. And yes, Backpack.tf does control the market, almost everyone now listens to backpack.tf always if i want to sell stuff people are telling me that the backpack.tf price is now lower, and that i have to sell it lower now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Killjoy Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 If backpack.tf controlled the market then we'd never change the price, since everyone would be following it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slifer Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 If backpack.tf controlled the market then we'd never change the price, since everyone would be following it. Well, what about not changing it then? Almost everyone says that spreadsheet is scam, and that you should use backpack.tf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Well arguing about it is useless anyway. I didn't say that buds have to get lower, all i said is not to change to price at all. Only some buyers are willing to pay what the sellers are asking for. And yes, Backpack.tf does control the market, almost everyone now listens to backpack.tf always if i want to sell stuff people are telling me that the backpack.tf price is now lower, and that i have to sell it lower now. No, bp.tf does Not control the market....In the case of keys, bp.tf might speed up the increase but it would happen either way... (As i've already explained)... There are 400 New buyers every 5 minutes on Outpost, and they are all paying 3.66-4 Ref (most paying 3.88)...And then there are 400 New Sellers every 5 minutes asking for 4-4.11 Ref (Anything lower gets bought up within seconds) And i've sold plenty of things above backpack.tf and bought plenty of things below it.......Backpack.tf most certainly does Not control the market.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat2PL Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 I totally agree with this ( the first post ) but you also have to understand that it usually works like this: step 1. There's price of key on backpack.tf ( lets say 4ref ) step 2. Sellers from outpost always do at least highest value of backpacks price so minimal selling price will be like 4ref, some of them will even decide to go a level above that and start selling for 4.11-4.22 and some will stay at that 3.77-3.88 to sell fast Now here comes my favorite part: step 3. Then some "hurr-durr" man comes at outpost and see someone selling for 4.22ref, so what does he do? He runs fast to backpack to set price voting on keys for 4.22ref coz he want to be next "superstar" that sets prices... As proof of his price idea he uses offers of those sellers that sell for 4.22ref ( they almost never show up trades that would bury theirs idea like trades for 3.77-3.88 ) and ofcourse he is right ( heres part when people demand on keys comes in ) because some people actually buy those keys for 4.22. Mostly those people have no idea what they are doin or are impatient and need keys fast. But many of them still buying and selling at backpacks.tf price step 1( again ). Then price voting on keys passes and now price is 4-4.22 so whats happening then? step 2. prices on outpost going up as well and some of them even higher then bp.tf price This is endless loop I dont blame backpack.tf, coz its just page that tries to matchup prices to nowadays demands I mostly blame "hurr-durr" men and overpricing sellers from outpost ( also those dumb people who buy from those sellers ) Maybe also "re-sellers" of keys that buy them cheaper just to sell for that 1scrap more ^ This is problem So maybe lets stop using Outpost as infallible source of information and also start basing on other things like environmental interview, some screenshots from trades and trade servers showing prices It's just my opinion and how i feel about this whole thing so please dont hate me, bury me alive in grave or anythin like that ;p Ow and btw, sry for bad english ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uranium235 Posted March 8, 2013 Share Posted March 8, 2013 All backpack.tf does, is increase market transparency, and that's a good thing! Case closed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AwesomeMcCoolName Posted March 8, 2013 Author Share Posted March 8, 2013 Well, backpack.tf is having less of an effect than you think.... Keys started to rise due to speculation when the market was added to the game. And at the time it was competley valid... There was a shortage of keys, and a very high demand (by halloween unboxers and speculators). Resulting in an increase in price. Whats happening now: Speculators saw keys rise (from 2.66-3.33), and decided to continue speculating and were more than happy to pay because they believe that keys will continue to rise. <---The explanation as to why buyers will pay pretty much whatever sellers ask. IMO, the key market is very similar to the gold market....the demand for gold increased, and the price started to rise, and even after the thing that caused the increased demand was over, people continue to buy because they just assume it'll continue to go up, and then sellers start asking for more, and the increase continues. Summary of Gold Market (in 60 seconds) http://goldwars.blogspot.com/2010/05/why-does-price-of-gold-go-up.html "There are other things that affect the price of Gold like knee-jerk reaction buying and selling based on fear and greed. Collapsing currencies, countries going bankrupt, rumors of war and war, etc. have always affected the price of Gold. People flock to gold as a safe haven during these times." "Recent comments by the media and people such as George Soros that gold is the ultimate bubble seem asinine to me when you consider the following: - Federal Reserve and other central banks printing money (out of control) causing inflation. - Gold for millennia has been a safe storage of value – Historically, all civilizations and cultures go back to gold after they debase their currencies. Washington is allowing the Federal Reserve to print money into existence and there are no signs on the horizon that this will end or slow down. - If you look at any historical gold chart, gold has risen with small corrections and pull-backs along the way and in the big picture, steadily climbed. This is a classic sign that gold has been chronically bullish with no bubble in sight. - Basic Supply and Demand Fundamentals: There is less than 1/2 an ounce of gold above the ground per person alive on the planet right now. What does that mean when failing currencies prompt everyone at once to turn to something more sound? - was quoted that he is not selling any of his gold. If gold goes down, he’ll buy more. If it goes up, he’ll still get more. He is certain that due to the imbalances in the world economy and financial system right now, we are heading towards a currency crisis in the next year. Does this sound like the actions of someone who has heavily invested in a commodity that is in a bubble status? - China has already said that their demand for gold will double in the next 10 years. Is this bubble talk? - Looming currency crises globally - You cannot open a newspaper or turn on your TV today without being told about the declining Euro and other failing currencies. This will become more prevalent in the media in the coming months." "As Simon Heapes said “You cannot study the subject of Gold and Silver without studying its counterfeit, that being the world’s paper currencies.â€" http://wiki.answers.com/Q/Why_does_the_price_of_silver_and_gold_go_up "The more gold and silver that is sold, the more the price goes up. One reason why gold and silver prices have been going up in recent months is that investors see precious metals as a 'safe haven' while the economy is not doing well. That means that a lot of people who had their money in stocks or real estate took their money out and invested it in gold and silver. Also, precious metals keep their value pretty well when there is high inflation" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RuffRyders Posted March 10, 2013 Share Posted March 10, 2013 This is the cause http://backpack.tf/vote/id/50cbc90aba2536e27c000017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F CHARLIE Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Then the final price point for keys is around 7.33 ref. Beyond that point it is cheaper for any player to buy a key from the mann co store. Except young players who don't have credit cards. Their just screwed all the way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Killjoy Posted March 19, 2013 Share Posted March 19, 2013 Then the final price point for keys is around 7.33 ref. Beyond that point it is cheaper for any player to buy a key from the mann co store. Except young players who don't have credit cards. Their just screwed all the way around. Assuming Ref doesn't fall more in Paypal pricing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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