Most profitable crate actually

[Heated Bread]

If you have a specific unusual that you want, you definitely will not unbox it.  You have almost zero chance of unboxing the specific hat and effect that you want.  Gambling with the crate system is risky even if you know what you are doing.  Chances are that if you do manage to unbox an unusual, you probably won't be able to break even with the number of keys that it took for you to get lucky.

 

I'd save up for the specific hat you want.  It's much safer.

[Woifi The Viking]

Crate 49. It's the rarest and has really good stranges and parts. 10/10 would inbox #49.

But the unusuals are shit.

[Underscore]

Any of the crates with lime/pink/TS paint

[CocoaNut]

Has anyone actually averaged out the price of all the unusuals for an expected ROI on crate unboxes just from unusuals? This would tell us what the ROI would have to be on the rest of the items to break even, not counting the cost of the crate itself.

[The G What ™]

Has anyone actually averaged out the price of all the unusuals for an expected ROI on crate unboxes just from unusuals? This would tell us what the ROI would have to be on the rest of the items to break even, not counting the cost of the crate itself.

Yes. It's kinda old news. http://www.trade.tf/crates

[CocoaNut]

Yes. It's kinda old news. http://www.trade.tf/crates

 

Uh, no, that's actually not it at all.

 

Okay, look at it this way: There are certain video poker machines that actually pay out a better than 100% ROI with perfect play. A good chunk of the income, however, comes from those rare times when you hit the higher pay amounts that have a very low probability of happening (looking at the pay schedule will tell you which ones pay out better than 100%).

 

My argument is that this is true for crates and unusuals. That list does not include the average price of unusuals that have been sold and merely goes with the items that you get 99% of the time. If, for example, you can average 3 ref per crate for an unusual (in other words, if the average you can expect to get from an unusual is a little over 2 buds), then #28 and #42 are actually profitable. If you can average 4 ref per crate for an unusual (a little under 3 buds per unusual), then #38 and #33, along with a number of others, become profitable as well.

 

Naturally, you'd need to have access to a shitload of keys in order to justify this chance. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 keys would be a good starting bankroll. Nothing compared to the bankroll of a professional video poker player, but still a substantial amount nonetheless.

 

Really, the only thing that needs to be done is to find the average price of currently priced unusuals that can still be found in crates. I know that it's not exactly the best to extrapolate known unusual prices to unknown unusual prices (or even previously sold unusuals of the same type), but I figure that it might work for a rough estimate.

[The G What ™]

Uh, no, that's actually not it at all.

 

Okay, look at it this way: There are certain video poker machines that actually pay out a better than 100% ROI with perfect play. A good chunk of the income, however, comes from those rare times when you hit the highest pay amount (looking at the pay schedule will tell you which ones pay out better than 100%).

 

My argument is that this is true for crates and unusuals. That list does not include the average price of unusuals that have been sold and merely goes with the items that you get 99% of the time. If, for example, you can average 3 ref per crate for an unusual (in other words, if the average you can expect to get from an unusual is a little over 2 buds), then #28 and #42 are actually profitable. If you can average 4 ref per crate for an unusual (a little under 3 buds per unusual), then #38 and #33, along with a number of others, become profitable as well.

 

Naturally, you'd need to have access to a shitload of keys in order to justify this chance. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of 800 keys would be a good starting bankroll. Nothing compared to the bankroll of a professional video poker player, but still a substantial amount nonetheless.

 

Really, the only thing that needs to be done is to find the average price of currently priced unusuals that can still be found in crates. I know that it's not exactly the best to extrapolate known unusual prices to unknown unusual prices (or even previously sold unusuals of the same type), but I figure that it might work for a rough estimate.

Except I think that averaging out the items you get +%99 of the time is a better metric than the ones you get less than %1 of the time. 

 

Basically, you shouldn't ever unbox. You mentioned starting with 800 keys. Well if you had 800 keys, why not simply buy some QS unusuals and trade up? Why run the %99 risk of failure? 

[CocoaNut]

Except I think that averaging out the items you get +%99 of the time is a better metric than the ones you get less than %1 of the time. 

 

Basically, you shouldn't ever unbox. You mentioned starting with 800 keys. Well if you had 800 keys, why not simply buy some QS unusuals and trade up? Why run the %99 risk of failure? 

 

Actually... no. This is coming from someone that used to be somewhat involved in the poker scene (including things like insurance and probability bets), so the idea of consistently betting a small amount for a good ROI when the probability works in your favor isn't too foreign of an idea to me. In poker, it's implied odds or tournament winnings. In TF2 uncrating, it's unusuals.

 

And it's not a 99% risk of failure. The chance of not uncrating a single unusual after 800 uncrates is .0322%. About 1 in 3,000. Starting with 1,000 moves that to .0043%, or about 1 in 23,000. Naturally, this doesn't factor in the price of the unusuals or how many you'd actually get, but the point is that, well... this is the entire point of a bankroll. You start out with a large amount of money in case luck screws you at some point.

 

As for why not trading up? Well, it might actually be a better investment of time to uncrate instead of trading. That's part of the point of this.

[Fuzzybutt]

I wouldn't recommend it. According to a steam stats page I've spent about £2500 over the course of 2 years on in-game steam purchases (this isn't including games I've bought, just ingame microtransactions) which is basically only TF2 for me, and about 70% of that was on keys purely for unboxing.

I'm too scared to add it all up, but in all those unboxes I've had 2 unusuals, and both of those weren't from any keys I bought, but from a single one I got as gifts from people.

And both of those were very recent, I went the first 2 years of unboxing with nothing.

tl:dr What I just typed is irrelevant because the Mining Light is discontinued, so just buy it.

[Puppier]

I wouldn't recommend it. According to a steam stats page I've spent about £2500 over the course of 2 years on in-game steam purchases (this isn't including games I've bought, just ingame microtransactions) which is basically only TF2 for me, and about 70% of that was on keys purely for unboxing.

 

I'm too scared to add it all up, but in all those unboxes I've had 2 unusuals, and both of those weren't from any keys I bought, but from a single one I got as gifts from people.

 

And both of those were very recent, I went the first 2 years of unboxing with nothing.

 

tl:dr What I just typed is irrelevant because the Mining Light is discontinued, so just buy it.

It hurts inside.

[Fuzzybutt]

Bump, Looking to unbox a few , since times change i figure the crates dealio changes a little.

42 is still profitable as the strange parts inside are pretty pricey at the minute

 

19 has lost a lot of worth as the grenade launcher got re-released recently

 

The pink/lime paint one is.. okay, but the returns aren't great.

 

 

But the unusuals are shit.

 

Any crate can have any unusual and effect combo by the way. I've had an Unusual with first tier effect in a salvaged number 50, and an Unusual TC from a 79 crate that doesn't have it listed. The wiki also states it's not relevant to the hats inside.

[The G What ™]

Actually... no. This is coming from someone that used to be somewhat involved in the poker scene (including things like insurance and probability bets), so the idea of consistently betting a small amount for a good ROI when the probability works in your favor isn't too foreign of an idea to me. In poker, it's implied odds or tournament winnings. In TF2 uncrating, it's unusuals.

 

And it's not a 99% risk of failure. The chance of not uncrating a single unusual after 800 uncrates is .0322%. About 1 in 3,000. Starting with 1,000 moves that to .0043%, or about 1 in 23,000. Naturally, this doesn't factor in the price of the unusuals or how many you'd actually get, but the point is that, well... this is the entire point of a bankroll. You start out with a large amount of money in case luck screws you at some point.

 

As for why not trading up? Well, it might actually be a better investment of time to uncrate instead of trading. That's part of the point of this.

Right, I forgot that one can hedge their keys in case they don't get an unusual, or how one can bluff their way out of a bad unbox, or how one can play a draw on the river to get a burning flames TC, or how one can read their opponents box in order to cut their losses. Totally the same as poker, right?

 

And by all estimates, it is a %99 risk of failure. Some estimates show it is %0.66 or possibly even lower. 

 

Your math is technically correct, but you're falling into the fallacy of thinking that due to probability, a desired result must occur. In case you don't feel like reading the math, just because you have more tries does not mean that you have a higher chance of success. 

 

We've all heard the stories of the noob with a 50 ref backpack that unboxed his unusual with his first ever key, and we've all heard that it took Woifi 800 keys to unbox a cancer hat. Again, no matter how you look at it, it is never a reliable method of profit to unbox yourself and hope for an unusual. 

[Woifi The Viking]

Any crate can have any unusual and effect combo by the way. I've had an Unusual with first tier effect in a salvaged number 50, and an Unusual TC from a 79 crate that doesn't have it listed. The wiki also states it's not relevant to the hats inside.

Proof please.

[CocoaNut]

Right, I forgot that one can hedge their keys in case they don't get an unusual, or how one can bluff their way out of a bad unbox, or how one can play a draw on the river to get a burning flames TC, or how one can read their opponents box in order to cut their losses. Totally the same as poker, right?

 

And by all estimates, it is a %99 risk of failure. Some estimates show it is %0.66 or possibly even lower. 

 

Your math is technically correct, but you're falling into the fallacy of thinking that due to probability, a desired result must occur. In case you don't feel like reading the math, just because you have more tries does not mean that you have a higher chance of success. 

 

We've all heard the stories of the noob with a 50 ref backpack that unboxed his unusual with his first ever key, and we've all heard that it took Woifi 800 keys to unbox a cancer hat. Again, no matter how you look at it, it is never a reliable method of profit to unbox yourself and hope for an unusual. 

 

1. Uh-huh. Sure. Except that I was using the issue of a small bet with a small chance of success that has a large payback once it hits, something that's fairly common among poker players (and keep in mind that that includes side bets) to explain my expertise on the matter. I did not, and would not, claim that unboxing is TOTALLY LIKE POKER GAIS. I was addressing the specifics of bankroll management and side bets, expanding on my point about video poker machines. That's a real nice straw man you've got there, though.

 

2. Again, that's per box. (Edit: Oh, and this?

 

Unless the majority of Unusuals (>40%) reside in Private Backpacks while the majority of Uncrated Items (>90%) reside in Public Backpacks, the unusual rate is definitely not 1%.

 

Is actually probably true. Consider the people with the private backpacks. Most of the ones of whom I know are people that have been playing since the start or play in ESEA Invitational, UGC Plat, etc, all of whom have a much higher percentage of unusuals relative to stranges compared to the average player.)

 

3. No. I can't even wrap my head around how poor your reading comprehension or understanding of probability (or both) has to be to think that this applies.

 

4. Completely misunderstanding the point of the bankroll argument.

 

Edit: For the record, you entered this discussion by linking a source that actually had nothing to do with my question. And now you've continued this discussion with a series of arguments that rely on completely mangling mine. At no point have you actually addressed the issue of my original point.

[Fuzzybutt]

Proof please.

 

 

Here's a screenshot of the Unusual Wiki Page. I'm not sure whether it's traceable what I unboxed my two Unusuals from but you don't have to take my word for it now anyway.

 

inb4 citation needed

[Woifi The Viking]

 

Here's a screenshot of the Unusual Wiki Page. I'm not sure whether it's traceable what I unboxed my two Unusuals from but you don't have to take my word for it now anyway.

 

inb4 citation needed

The wiki also says that the noh is still unboxable, I don't believe anything they claim about unboxing anymore.

[Fuzzybutt]

The wiki also says that the noh is still unboxable, I don't believe anything they claim about unboxing anymore.

Well, until there's a way to trace what crate something gets unboxed from we're at an impasse. Unless any other unboxers of unusuals can back me up. Maybe there is a correlation between new crates and new effects, but I believe it's still possible to get any effect/hat combo in any crate.

 

Had a Salvaged Crate #50 drop an hour or so after the Robocrate patch hit, unboxed it and got a Nuts n Bolts Tin Gallon inside.

 

And I randomly unboxed a #77 crate (listed hats are Blueprints and Beak, was kinda hoping for a Beak if I did get unusual) and got a Disco Beat Down Team Captain.

 

Infact I'm not even sure what series the Team Captain is listed on..

 

But even Salvaged crates have it listed that they can contain a "rare" item, and they don't have listed hats at all, so if that trend carries over to normal crates it must theoretically be possible to get anything from any crate.

 

Still, the theory may not be true, I don't put my full trust in any site, and the Wiki isn't an exception. Just speaking from personal experience.

[Woifi The Viking]

Well, until there's a way to trace what crate something gets unboxed from we're at an impasse. Unless any other unboxers of unusuals can back me up. Maybe there is a correlation between new crates and new effects, but I believe it's still possible to get any effect/hat combo in any crate.

 

Had a Salvaged Crate #50 drop an hour or so after the Robocrate patch hit, unboxed it and got a Nuts n Bolts Tin Gallon inside.

 

And I randomly unboxed a #77 crate (listed hats are Blueprints and Beak, was kinda hoping for a Beak if I did get unusual) and got a Disco Beat Down Team Captain.

 

Infact I'm not even sure what series the Team Captain is listed on..

 

But even Salvaged crates have it listed that they can contain a "rare" item, and they don't have listed hats at all, so if that trend carries over to normal crates it must theoretically be possible to get anything from any crate.

 

Still, the theory may not be true, I don't put my full trust in any site, and the Wiki isn't an exception. Just speaking from personal experience.

Nuts and bolts is not an old effect.^^

[Jubei]

Well if anybody wants old crates:

 

http://bazaar.tf/trade/703278

 

/shameless plug

[Fuzzybutt]

Nuts and bolts is not an old effect.^^

 

It's new in comparison to the series I unboxed it from, it definitely wasn't new during the Salvage 50 release, that's all I'm saying.

 

EDIT: I thought Kill-a-Watt was a Robo Effect so don't mind me.

[Woifi The Viking]

It's new in comparison to the series I unboxed it from, it definitely wasn't new during the Salvage 50 release, that's all I'm saying.

 

EDIT: I thought Kill-a-Watt was a Robo Effect so don't mind me.

I still don't get what you are saying. Crate #50 was released before the summer effects. You can get any hat out of any crate, but not any effect.

[Fuzzybutt]

I still don't get what you are saying. Crate #50 was released before the summer effects. You can get any hat out of any crate, but not any effect.

Unless there's proof of the contrary, I still think it's possible to get any effect from any crate. I've seen threads on bp.tf and people in-game claiming it to be so. Whether it's fact or fiction is debatable obviously, but Valve themselves have never confirmed it to be one way or the other, it could just be an incredibly low chance of getting old effects. I was always under the impression that crates can contain any effect that was around at the time the crate was released, so you'd have more chance of getting an old effect in an old crate because it isn't sharing that drop chance with a new one, but that's just my speculation.

[Woifi The Viking]

Unless there's proof of the contrary, I still think it's possible to get any effect from any crate. I've seen threads on bp.tf and people in-game claiming it to be so. Whether it's fact or fiction is debatable obviously, but Valve themselves have never confirmed it to be one way or the other, it could just be an incredibly low chance of getting old effects. I was always under the impression that crates can contain any effect that was around at the time the crate was released, so you'd have more chance of getting an old effect in an old crate because it isn't sharing that drop chance with a new one, but that's just my speculation.

Well time to crush your theories then, I waited long enough.

 

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/5358-effect-unbox-rate/?p=62655

[Fuzzybutt]

Well time to crush your theories then, I waited long enough.

 

http://forums.backpack.tf/index.php?/topic/5358-effect-unbox-rate/?p=62655

Well, now I know. Thanks for enlightening me.

 

Presumably you waited til now to make me look stupid and extract as much schadenfreude as possible, but due to my limited knowledge of TF2 Unusuals I unfortunately make myself look stupid on a.. probably hourly basis.

 

I just soak my head in water and it all goes away

 

 

[Wooden House]

I've unboxed so many crates it's not even funny. It's not worth, you don't make any profit unless you get lucky one time. If you don't get lucky which you probably will not, you will have to sell all the stranges you unbox so you aren't so far in the hole.