Key voting and the problems I see

[Pyrocide]

This isn't a vote on the price of the key, more so an idea I had.

What if. WHAT IF BP.TF stopped posting a price entirely on currency; earbuds, keys, metal and let the market fend for itself. Not posting how much a key is worth based on what Outpost or Trade servers sell for, but just focus on what items sell for. Face it, the economy right now is 99 shades of black and blue from being beaten to shit and gone with the "key shortage crisis of mid-2012" and the "zomg freemium upgrade accounts are running rampant in idle servers"

Think about that for a second. Greedy jerkoffs on outpost wont have a price they can tack on a scrap to make a profit every chance they get, people like Long and mirror_ wont have any legitimate sources (as if Outpost was a legitimate source to begin with for currency prices) to post up increasing price ranges anymore. Think about what that would do to the economy? Maybe level out to 2.33 to 2.66 ref for a key? Maybe go back to normal before the misc update? Hell it could even trigger the long awaited TF2 economy crash people have been raving about for 2 fucking years.

Now, with that said I am not saying that people like Long are to blame for this. Of course not, they make financial decisions based on a fluctuating market, i get it. I am not economics major by any means, sure I took calc in college and took a personal finance course to help level out my shambled check book and credit cards. Does that make me an expert? Fuck no. But I understand it, people sell high and buy low. Its the way of any market. 

I am not asking for you people to vote on a price. I am just asking to take a look at something here for a moment, if we cut off one of the biggest "suppliers" for key price, where does that leave the Outpost? Heading to the Spreadshit - a prove market player and scammer? Or will they actually have to barter and make decisions based on what others are selling at instead of coming here seeing the price is X and then posting "X + .11 FIRM blah blah blah"? If we could even for 2 weeks shut down the key suggestions and remove the key/refined/bud price from BP.tf, perhaps some good would come of that. 

And I know that my rep will most likely go to shit for this post, but ya know what? i really don't give two shits about rep. No grammar for that matter. I like trading in TF2, I like playing MvM, regardless of the market I will continue to play it because I enjoy it. Go ahead and downvote if you want to, upvote if you see the same problems I do. Maybe this is the only way to show the mods what is happening and see the voices of the TF2 masses.

TL;DR - yes for stopping entirely of currency suggestions, no if you don't agree or don't care. Other for another suggestion.

NOTE: This will also be posted in the forum but I also posted here because of the voting system.

[MC22]

then the connection between the gap would be closed. Everything would have to be based on keys. BUYING UNUSUAL FOR 427 REF IN KEYS lol no.

[Pyrocide]

Hey, lol, that's what this is for, the sharing of ideas.

 

How can u be sure that people would purchase unusuals in ref? What about ToD or SV? Or hell even tux?

[dont shoot - i have beer]

Gee, stop reporting on the prices and MAYBE the whole economy will fix itself. There's no evidence for this. People would get their prices from somewhere else like tf2finance or spreadsheet or do their own homework. Want keys to go down? Buy them from the store and stop trading metal for them. I keep seeing this suggestion every so often and it just makes no sense to me.

[Pyrocide]

I never said the economy would 100% fix itself, but you cannot deny that bp.tf and op have a direct correlation with key price.

 

As to your suggestions, Tf2finance is more accurate than outpost as it reports from multiple sources instead of just Outpost that is full of highballers and lowballers. So that's a fix there. People doing their own homework instead of going directly to BP to find the most recent price to sell at or above; that's a fix.

 

I occasionally buy keys from the store if i get a steam card or a gift card etc for a birthday gift. But I haven't bought a key for metal since they rose over 2.66. 

 

EDIT: Cleaning up post to make more legible.

[MC22]

you realize that most key prices originate by someone looking at tf2finance?

[dont shoot - i have beer]

If outpost is full of highballers and lowballers, then why not invalidate all of backpack.tf since you can't get a single vote passed here without an outpost link? Outpost is the heart of the market. Doing one's own research would require them to go through pages and pages of outpost trades, which is essentially what backpack.tf votes do. That's not a "fix".

 

If you're not buying keys for metal, then what's your beef with them being a little higher each week?

[Jymotion]

Your predictions are too idealistic (for people who wish they could afford more keys).  bp.tf is not responsible for the rising key prices.  People realizing that they can raise the price and still sell all their keys is the reason for the price increase.  Why would the key price go back to 2.33 if keys are flying off the shelves at 3.77?

 

It's an inherent problem in an economy with commodity-based currency.  There is no "fixing" it.

[Pyrocide]

I don't have predictions that anything would happen. I simply posed a hypothetical.

 

Sure I could go to the market buy a couple hundred keys to start selling high and rebuy low and slowly build up a sizable bp. But that would do nothing but fuel the fire already started. 

 

What if the key went back down to 2.33? With no one able to check bp, and spreadshit forever known as the one guy that played the market prices and got caught where are the outpost buyers and sellers going to get their prices to base off of? Trade servers, actually dealing with people instead of waiting for those that come along and don't care what the asking price is. I am fairly sure that If i sold off my entire bp for keys and resold them at 4.66 refined I could get a couple bites easy within a few days because there will ALWAYS be people that are willing to buy something because they want it. 

 

Hell I wanted my first unusual to be an uncrate. Overtime i had bought 50 keys from the store and bought (at the time) keys at 2.33. 73 friggen keys later I ended up with a damn cancer unusual. But ya know what? I was happy. Yes, I could've bought the same unusual for 20 keys and made a profit but I wanted to uncrate the first one.

 

@MC, yes and I also realize that the key price isn't at 3.88 yet either, like Long has, twice now, suggested.

 

@dont shoot, because im a greedy little shit. lol jk. I care because items that were prices back when a key was 2.66 here and was convereted to a key because a key cost 2.66 and never converted back, its all relative. You raise the key price you raise the price of anything priced in keys. I also dont invalidate all of bp.tf because i dont turn around every 5 hours and see a new price on the same can of paint or a misc item voted on only a few hours or a day earlier. Only does it happen with keys. Doing their own homework means they see ALL of the trades, not what people pick and choose to "validate" their price suggestions.

[Jymotion]

What if the key went back down to 2.33? With no one able to check bp, and spreadshit forever known as the one guy that played the market prices and got caught where are the outpost buyers and sellers going to get their prices to base off of? Trade servers, actually dealing with people instead of waiting for those that come along and don't care what the asking price is. I am fairly sure that If i sold off my entire bp for keys and resold them at 4.66 refined I could get a couple bites easy within a few days because there will ALWAYS be people that are willing to buy something because they want it. 

 

What you are proposing is removing information sources from consumers.  Yes, that will obviously cause people to underprice and overprice their items (relative to the true market equilibrium), but is that really a good thing?  For a person who wishes to exploit it for profit, sure, but not for an economy.  Information-seeking consumers would still know the approximate market price of an item, but it would just involve far more time and effort for it to be figured out.

 

Just because the price of an item we all want is rising (in terms of metal) does not change the fact that market equilibrium is a good thing.

[Synister]

My only issue is that you can't really say that an item should no longer be priced since it is being used as a currency. With backpack.tf and most other spreadsheets, they do their best to provide general pricing for every single item there is.  Saying you're no longer going to price a certain item almost defeats the purpose for the spreadsheet.

[The Killjoy]

No.

We list items in currency price, having no price for the currency would be just silly. Plus, you'd need a definition of "currency". Is Bill's a currency? Are BMOCs, Max's, a currency?

[Pyrocide]

currency has always been the standard buds bills keys and metal. How many items have you see that have been valued at HOUWARs or Max's? None as everyone knows that a max is 2 buds and houwars are 10-12 what ever its current price is. Something like a burning tc, it wouldnt be a bad idea to convert to houwars but seeing as there is less than 1000 houwars in the game it could get messy. I have always seen max's and houwars as placeholders for keys and buds. 

 

Why would not listing a currency price be "silly" can you give me a definitive reason as to why? Or is it more so that you want to have a monetary value to your bp?

[Crabislav]

Gee, stop reporting on the prices and MAYBE the whole economy will fix itself. There's no evidence for this. People would get their prices from somewhere else like tf2finance or spreadsheet or do their own homework. Want keys to go down? Buy them from the store and stop trading metal for them. I keep seeing this suggestion every so often and it just makes no sense to me.

Your words also make no sense. How can you persuade ALL traders from buying keys with metal? People knew that keys will keep rising in price if they keep vuying them with metal yet they kept doing that and still do. And they always will. Keys are in huge demand all the time and the quickest way to get them is via trading with others. One does not simply tell the whole community what to do.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Haven't read any of the above.....

 

But, it would be an interesting experiment and finally show people that bp.tf is NOT the cause for rising key prices..

[Jymotion]

Haven't read any of the above.....

 

most honest but frustrating post I've seen in the forums so far

[The Killjoy]

currency has always been the standard buds bills keys and metal. How many items have you see that have been valued at HOUWARs or Max's? None as everyone knows that a max is 2 buds and houwars are 10-12 what ever its current price is. Something like a burning tc, it wouldnt be a bad idea to convert to houwars but seeing as there is less than 1000 houwars in the game it could get messy. I have always seen max's and houwars as placeholders for keys and buds. 

 

Why would not listing a currency price be "silly" can you give me a definitive reason as to why? Or is it more so that you want to have a monetary value to your bp?

Because it prices everything, and everything is priced IN CURRENCY.

[Pyrocide]

lmao McCoolName, at least you speak your mind and are truthful.

 

Prices that are dictated on bp.tf is not a set in stone price. Point in fact. The Cave gen promos that were released. 2 days after they were released I bought all 3 for 4 ref. They were going for 2-3 keys a pop. Just because a price is listed here doesn't mean a seller or a buyer has to commit to those prices.

 

I am not saying to remove the currency price of an item, but rather the price of currency. 

 

It will still list a burning tc as 120 buds but no longer have buds listed as 27 keys and keys at 3.88 and ref at $0.37

 

It will be up to the players and the market to determine what a bud costs or what a key in metal or ToD cost. It would no longer be a site that dictates it based on the suggestions of one site's highballing selling prices.

[The Killjoy]

I know what you're talking about, and I still think it's just silly.

You have an item priced in keys, but you got no keys, so you want to see how much metal you want to offer, but you can't, because keys aren't priced because that's supposed to magically make the economy fix itself when there isn't even anything wrong with it.

[Pyrocide]

magically make the economy fix itself when there isn't even anything wrong with it.

 

 

You dont see anything wrong with the economy? The infinite loop of key price suggestions creeping up and up every other day? Theres nothing wrong with that is what you are saying?

 

It is true, I believe there is a massive influx of refined. Sort of like what happened to Germany after WWI the papiermark was near worthless because Ger had printed SO much of it. People were using it as wallpaper, wall insulation and fire starter. I see that happening with refined metal. Its being "printed" everyday without stopping due to idle accounts there is has been a massive surge of idle accounts and refined metal. 

 

Hypothetically, if people come here and search for say a black paint can and its listed as 2-3 Keys. But no key price. So they go to servers or OP or r/tf2/trade or whatever and try and buy one. They post that they are buying, so someone posts back ok ill sell it for 2.5 keys. Would be great if they had keys right? Lets consider that they are the type that havent bought keys and decide to pay in metal, they haggle it out until someone comes along, MAYBE, and posts I will sell it for 6 ref. Keep in mind the seller is trying to make a profit, but has to keep in mind that other people are selling black paint and he could lose a sale. Sellers will have to keep this in mind when haggling. 

 

I project the market will inevitably take a huge crash. Either due to the influx of refined or the key inflation or the Great and Powerful Gabe doing something so profound like announcing TF3.

[The Killjoy]

You dont see anything wrong with the economy? The infinite loop of key price suggestions creeping up and up every other day? Theres nothing wrong with that is what you are saying?

 

Yes that's exactly what I'm saying.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Except, if you're going to list the price of an item in buds/keys, then let people decide how to convert it into metal, you might as well not list any prices at all (same idea).....

 

Leave it up to the buyer/sell to decide what to pay....

 

TBH, i don't really have any issue with the current system (aside from the Bud $-price). It gets the job done pretty well.

 

And, this is going to sound kind of weird, but i have a feeling that bp.tf's key price actually controls the price of keys.....

Think about who follows spreadsheets....its usually the newer/smaller trader... Both of these 2 types of traders don't really have the "right" to argue, and will likely agree to pay whatever the "man" says....So, in a sense, by listing prices, it tells newer traders what an item's fair market value is, and actually prevents him from getting overcharged...

 

Also, by not listing key prices, newer/smaller trades won't know what to sell em for and they'll all be bought up quite quickly (and cheaply) by the larger traders who will then ask for 4~ refined (if not more). 

[Rhys13th]

No.

We list items in currency price, having no price for the currency would be just silly. Plus, you'd need a definition of "currency". Is Bill's a currency? Are BMOCs, Max's, a currency?

 

Currency in TF2 is generally considered the following, in ascending order:

 

Scrap Metal, Reclaimed Metal, Refined Metal, Mann co. Keys, Bill's Hat, (painted Team color) Bill's, White Bill's, Black Bills, Buds, Max's.

 

It ends there. BMOC's can't be considered currency cause they fluctuate too much relative to all the other currencies, and same for Holiday Headcases and HOUWARs. That, and HOUWARs aren't really used except in rare God-Tier Unusual trading. And before you say that keys therefore couldn't be called currency, they're reamining stable relative to all other forms of currency excepting Metal, so I'd rather say that metal shouldn't be considered a currency.

[Pyrocide]

@Rhys: I didnt mention the other metal or painted bills as I figured it was just narrowing it down further with details, When I said bills it included variations of it such as painted different colors. Sorry for the confusion.

 

Ok maybe Im being misunderstood here.

 

I am not suggesting this because I don't like the price of the keys. I am suggesting this due to the problems of using Outpost as a singular reference for key price and suggesting it here on BP. The same could be said in server. the funtion !price or !pc key grabs from either tf2finance, OP or spreadshit most times I have seen.  The problems I see are greed of sellers, BP-OP loop and suggestion methodology for currency.

 

We are stuck in an infinite loop here. BP.tf starts off a key at 3 ref. OP seller sees that and bumps up the price by 1 scrap to make a profit. Fine, i get that. A suggestion then comes up on BP that states keys are being sold at 3.11 and links to said post and gets the price raised to 3.11 for a key, because hey its proof its selling. New OP Seller comes along and sees the price of key has gone up and so they tack on a scrap to make a profit for the key they just purchased at 3.11. Rinse and repeat. That is the major problem that I see here. Its a never ending cycle of bumping up the price of a key to the point where normal people who dont have alts or dont have a credit card to purchase mann co store items will almost never be able to unbox crates. They either have to get really lucky in drops, scam or be really good at selling items for a profit and negotiating for a low price when buying.

[The Killjoy]

If it were as easy as simply "I want 1 scrap more, so does everyone, therefore it's the price" this raise would've happened a long time ago.

What's happening is the fault of the buyers. People have asked for 1~2 scrap more off keys since trading started, but the buyers didn't buy at that price because they could get it for less. Now, buyers are willing to go with the higher prices, thus, making the price actually change.

What I think is happening though is that in some people's minds they just think Keys are gonna rise forever, so even if you're buying for the high range or more now, it'll reach that price eventually so there's no worries. Thing is, these people buying for this price now are the ones making this price be the new one.