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Suggestion Question, Keys, 4.66-5 refined, Sir-J-j-jon


Hatch Rawer Beryl

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Whoops, posted in the wrong sub-forum. Sorry about that. Reposting here.

 

Link to suggestions: 

 

 

4.66-5 refined suggestion: http://backpack.tf/v...bd7b8cd31000007

5 refined suggestion: http://backpack.tf/v...bd7b8b132000012

Jon's explanation comment: http://i.imgur.com/xxmrSFB.png?1

 

 

Well, if backpack.tf wasn't manipulating prices before, it certainly is now. "...I am curious how much backpack.tf really influences the market so......." - Sir J-j-jon

The proof in the 4.66-5 refined suggestion was an assortment of trades that showed that, occasionally, keys sell under 5 refined. Which is to be expected, since http://tf2finance.com/keys/ hasn't gone up to 5.22 refined yet. Of course, were these trades even good proof? I mean, most of them were people selling only one key for below 5 refined, and they were snatched up in an instant like ice cream in the summer. Almost like, oh I don't know... The people who bought those keys knew they could immediately sell those keys to the many 5 refined buyers? Isn't backpack.tf supposed to keep people informed that keys are worth at least 5 refined?
Now on to my proof... I included only buyers for 5 refined, most of which are still open. Those people are practically begging people to sell them keys for 5 refined! 
 
I suppose the real question here is...  What is backpack.tf's job? Shenanigans said that backpack.tf would always accept the most accurate price. http://i.imgur.com/ayUVlF1.png?1
Is that true? Is backpack.tf's job to report prices, or is it to control prices? Is it to protect uninformed traders, or is it to help other people take advantage of said uninformed traders?
 
You tell me.
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There was lots of proof, I checked almost every single one of them and they were legit people with one-two keys selling them for 4.66-4.77

 

You have those who complain of manipulation, of only using tf2finance and that it can be manipulated, of any number of reasons and they complain. they make soapbox suggestions with 5 trades of people selling at 2.33 ref. You have those who claim how easy it is to get 1-2 keys for 4-4.66 on trade servers.

 

But these people actually put some effort in, they found dozens and dozens of 4.66 & 4.77 trades, as many as those people who find proof to raise prices. They seeped through the same amount of 5.33+ trades to find the 4.66-4.77 ones as you would seep through the lowballs to find the 5 ref buyers.

 

I saw an opportunity here, they provided the proof, they showed 4.66-4.77 still happens, 5 ref is still in the range as well. I am hoping that this will be a learning experience, to see what the market really does, to see how much bp.tf really "influences" the market.

 

I knew what I did was not kosher and I know the responses I will get and I know that it won't be long until someone will show up and do the opposite, spend just as much time proving not only the 5 ref buyers but but the 5.11-5.33 sellers as well, But I feel its worth it. Just think, I am the only mod has almost never bought/sold keys so I cannot be accused of manipulation for personal gain. (The last time I did was over a week ago I needed 2 keys ASAP so I checked classifieds and lo and behold, there were 2 keys for 4.66, before that it was almost 2 months ago and I stopped because no one was selling)

 

Anyway, Im off for a bit, dont know whatll be here when I come back

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The market hasn't crashed, but I agree with Jon that it'd help for idiots to take the time to realize that before we record market price.

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The market hasn't crashed, but I agree with Jon that it'd help for idiots to take the time to realize that before we record market price.

lol I love it when people Like comments that were sarcastic, but dislike the comment below it when the person says they are sarcastic 

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It's a nasty situation for mods all around. Plenty of proof provided, very strongly upvoted. For any other item it'd  be a shoo-in. Though for any other item, the current situation would be impossible.

 

The biggest issue behind it is that key's are just too damn volatile right now, selling both well above and below what would be considered 'average' price, I personally wouldn't have accepted it, but that doesn't mean there aren't reasons for accepting it.

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For the time being, maybe replace key ref values with dollar values. And just keep ref/key dollar value and let people make their own conversions.

 

Something really needs to be done before everyone is turned away from bptf, and there's nothing really else to try.

 

Other possibilities:

Remove price altogether. Unfortunately this would lead to Sharking.

 

Don't update the price for a week. But that would be manipulating/lead to Sharking, and it's effects would disappear after a month and it would be the same shit storm.

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A clarification on TF2finance: It seems that it only uses a few servers. Why hasn't it asked more servers to add their data to become more accurate? I'm not a /r/tf2trade mod, but I'm sure they'd be more than happy to help. I am a mod for CTS, and we'd also be happy to help. It'd help prevent manipulation and at the very least allow more data, even if it's trimmed to eliminate outliers.

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A clarification on TF2finance: It seems that it only uses a few servers. Why hasn't it asked more servers to add their data to become more accurate? I'm not a /r/tf2trade mod, but I'm sure they'd be more than happy to help. I am a mod for CTS, and we'd also be happy to help. It'd help prevent manipulation and at the very least allow more data, even if it's trimmed to eliminate outliers.

 

To be eligible for association, the server

  1. Must have high reputation
  2. Preferably associated with SR
  3. must demonstrates high popularity, based on third party server stats websites
  4. must have trading as primary goal and prohibit idling
  5. must be full (29-32 / 32) at least 60% of the time
  6. must contain players from at least 2 continents, preferably 3. 
  7. must be able to report stats through plugin

 /r/tf2trade is a small community, with concurrent viewers of 150 throughout the day, and less than 10 ads per day involving key/ref conversion, let alone buds/key conversion. 

 

I'm currently researching MCT, PPM, HellGamers etc. 

 

Relevancy of users is very important. For example, on Apr 23 I placed more focus on the 4 non-unusual RAWR servers. Keys trade volume quadrupled, but Buds trade volume didn't change at all. 

 

Randomly adding users who don't even trade (in that area) will only slow down the scanning. 

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TF2finance is a guide, although it is not the end all of proof. Theories about how it can be manipulated are just theories, without evidence to back it up or reject it completely. There were some sellers at 4.66 ref in the suggestion, and Jon felt it was enough to defend that as the low price. Yes, I did say that we would be accepting the most accurate suggestions. The suggestor put a lot of time into finding trades which sell for 4.66, despite them being sold very quickly. How many sales are key speculator purchases? How many sales are actual people trying to use keys? However, I do see your proof of unsuccessful buyers at 5 ref. I guess Jon decided that, with buyers at 5 ref and sellers at 4.66, a wide range was appropriate.

 

I am against the trend of increasing key prices, although this is my personal opinion, which is why I do not moderate any of the key suggestions. Is Jon absolutely correct? No... Does he have some valid points? Yes.

 

There are so many factors going into each key suggestion, nothing is clear cut. We should have a re-working of the key suggestion system, something that is still under discussion. For now, let's look toward the future: wait a few days, reassess the market for keys, and resuggest if the price is wrong.

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It's a nasty situation for mods all around. Plenty of proof provided, very strongly upvoted. For any other item it'd  be a shoe-in. Though for any other item, the current situation would be impossible.

 

The biggest issue behind it is that key's are just too damn volatile right now, selling both well above and below what would be considered 'average' price, I personally wouldn't have accepted it, but that doesn't mean there aren't reasons for accepting it.

A Chief Shoe in?

What size?

So many questions...

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It's not shoe-in, it's shoo-in. I genuinely had no idea until Santa called me on it and I looked it up. So no joke there, I'm genuinely appreciative of that being pointed out to me.

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It's not shoe-in, it's shoo-in. I genuinely had no idea until Santa called me on it and I looked it up. So no joke there, I'm genuinely appreciative of that being pointed out to me.

Just say shosh like us abnormal people

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I just wanted to say, Hatch, I asked you to stop, now I warned you. Next time you start provoking users I'm banning you. Don't be too Long.

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I just wanted to say, Hatch, I asked you to stop, now I warned you. Next time you start provoking users I'm banning you. Don't be too Long.

 

OH LAWD SAVE THE ECONOMY

 

EDIT: To keep it relevant, how can we know for sure Long and Hatch are seperate entities?

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OH LAWD SAVE THE ECONOMY

 

EDIT: To keep it relevant, how can we know for sure Long and Hatch are seperate entities?

Hatch has made suggestions. That's proof enough for me that they are different people. Long would never pass up on an opportunity to increase his rep. That's why he didn't switch to using his alt account on backpack.tf

 

Also Hatch has donated more than Long.

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Hatch has made suggestions. That's proof enough for me that they are different people. Long would never pass up on an opportunity to increase his rep. That's why he didn't switch to using his alt account on backpack.tf

Also Hatch has donated more than Long.

Somehow I can't break the logic

meaning I can't find a flaw

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Somehow I can't break the logic

Long is a rep whore. He's not going to lose an ounce of rep just to have a second hated account on backpack.tf. Let alone would he go through the pointlessness of donating again.

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I just wanted to say, Hatch, I asked you to stop, now I warned you. Next time you start provoking users I'm banning you. Don't be too Long.

 

Wait, is this a reminder, or did I do something else to provoke users?

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Wait, is this a reminder, or did I do something else to provoke users?

I warned you on backpack.tf, you should be linked tot he comment. And that one's not the only one.

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I warned you on backpack.tf, you should be linked tot he comment. And that one's not the only one.

 

Either I missed it and cleared my notifications, or I didn't get it... I'll try looking through my key suggestions. 

 

Edit: Looked through all of my recent key suggestions, and I couldn't find any comment of mine that was warned. It must have been in someone else's key suggestion.

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