Sup with the Key Jump in $$$

[Resi]

I would have expected this sort of rise during an event or that it would happen not as fast.

 

The jump is sudden and correlates with Ref $ value -> key $ value.

Back when ref was about $0.45-$0.50 and keys were 2.66 ref, keys would hover around $1.20-$1.40, yet the key $ value never matched the ref $ value as quickly. It would always lag behind and take some time to catch up because people could still easily make money trades considering ref was not involved and neither was it's money value.

 

Keys were as low as $1.15-$1.25 right before halloween and during that time they jumped up to $1.30-$1.45 where Key -> ref price jumped up to about 3.66 refined, if I recall correctly. This was also when people realized how much refined was readily available and it's price dropped to $0.40 and below. Because of refined going down in price it continued to match up to the key $ value pretty easily.

 

Now ref is easily available at $0.35 (and probably less) and Key -> ref prices are at 4.66-5 according to outpost (Good luck trying to buy for less). No one has enough stock to continually sell keys for metal and back around. And it's not hard to buy keys for $1.25-$1.40 because that's what keys are worth, but suddenly that's changed way too fast in my opinion. There are quite a few people with large key stocks that sell keys for money and I don't want to believe it's true, but it seems like price manipulation of keys even though Ref $ value matches the key $ value in this case.

 

 

It's come to my attention the key prices have risen very suddenly on trading sites such as Sourceop.

People are selling keys for $1.65 to $1.70 and making sales. People are willing to buy for $1.50. I assume that price is going to increase to match the price of refined $ value. This is also what is causing buds to tank in key price value, if you were wondering.

 

tl;dr - Is this price manipulation, what I wrote above, or what the hell is going on with Key $$$ prices?

[Jymotion]

I don't participate in the cash market, but keys have become more desirable.  Increased demand causes higher prices.  With the rapid change in metal-key ratio, I'm not surprised to price of keys in cash is rising.

 

All I can tell you is that it is certainly not manipulation.  Even if it were, people are buying them.

[Resi]

I don't participate in the cash market, but keys have become more desirable.  Increased demand causes higher prices.  With the rapid change in metal-key ratio, I'm not surprised to price of keys in cash is rising.

 

All I can tell you is that it is certainly not manipulation.  Even if it were, people are buying them.

 

I've read that article and I don't really need some guy who understands economics to tell me people want keys bad. But there's more keys than ever than there has been since last year so I don't see why there's a sudden rise in cash value if there's actually way more than enough keys to go around.

[Distinctively Vincent]

Perhaps the increased metal cost has been driving more traders to buy with cash? Might be more people willing to try out the cash market to save on a game- spend $1.50 in paypal, pop it into the steam market, effectively turning that $1.50 into $2 for the game they intended to buy anyway. Or maybe the key sellers, formerly getting a good deal of keys by trading metal for them, now have less to sell for cash.

 

I doubt it'd be market manipulation. The key market is too damn big to be controlled by a couple of individuals.

 

But there's more keys than ever than there has been since last year so I don't see why there's a sudden rise in cash value if there's actually way more than enough keys to go around.

 

One important thing to remember is that total keys in existence is not the same as number of keys available for trade. The current situation has likely led to a lot of people sitting on keys and refusing to trade them in fear of future scarcity.

[Resi]

Perhaps the increased metal cost has been driving more traders to buy with cash? Might be more people willing to try out the cash market to save on a game- spend $1.50 in paypal, pop it into the steam market, effectively turning that $1.50 into $2 for the game they intended to buy anyway. Or maybe the key sellers, formerly getting a good deal of keys by trading metal for them, now have less to sell for cash.

 

I doubt it'd be market manipulation. The key market is too damn big to be controlled by a couple of individuals.

 

 

One important thing to remember is that total keys in existence is not the same as number of keys available for trade. The current situation has likely led to a lot of people sitting on keys and refusing to trade them in fear of future scarcity.

Ah yes, I always tend to forget the good ol' hoarders. Still though, I don't think many people buy keys for money to sell in the market when they can buy keys for money then trade those keys for games. Plus who wants to sell keys for funbucks unless you really /only/ want games.

[Distinctively Vincent]

Yeah, I'll freely admit the 'buy keys to sell on marketplace' was just something that popped into my head while typing up the post, not something I genuinely believe happens regularly

 

To continue on my speculation spree, another factor might be how Valve is cracking down on carders. A lot less keys availble for especially cheap, leading to key resellers with higher prices. Though, I will freely admit I don't fully understand the situation with the carders, how long it's been around or how much they might be contributing to the market. Just tossing my thoughts around.

[Scott Bakula]

To continue on my speculation spree, another factor might be how Valve is cracking down on carders. A lot less keys availble for especially cheap, leading to key resellers with higher prices.

 

That's what some of the tf2shop guys were saying. They've had to raise their prices because they want to insure that the keys they get are from reputable sources. And even with the higher prices, they're still hard-pressed to keep up with demand (Heck, they sell out even at $2.15 per key).

[cleverpun]

Yeah, I'll freely admit the 'buy keys to sell on marketplace' was just something that popped into my head while typing up the post, not something I genuinely believe happens regularly

 

Actually a lot of people do do that, especially during sales. Obviously regional pricing means that not all games follow the same rules, but I've had more than one person tell me they did their xmas/holiday shopping by converting paypal to keys to steam wallet. Whether you're buying games for yourself or to flip, trading for them versus marketing keys rarely has a single better option.

[Synister]

I don't buy games on steam often, but I've thought about that same process since the steam market came out.

 

Want to buy $60 game?

 

Step 1: Buy 30 keys @ $1.50(for the sake of even numbers) each

Step 2: Sell 30 keys @ Steam Market for $2.00 each

Step 3: ??? (Buy Game)

Step 4: Profit! (Enjoy game)

 

You may ask, are you willing to do all of this just to get 25% off?  Hell yes I am.

[✔ P I X E L A T E D ✔]

My experience, I've had trouble buying keys for $1.36. But flocks of people selling buds to me for $34.50. To sum it up, it's really the demand for keys. Some say the Summer Sale influences this others have a theory similar to yours, manipulation; unlikely as the PP market is so large.

[Baloo]

[Joshua Cain]

One important thing to remember is that total keys in existence is not the same as number of keys available for trade. The current situation has likely led to a lot of people sitting on keys and refusing to trade them in fear of future scarcity.

Distincrively Vincent

 

Unlike resl life people don't need to play the game and don't need keys to live. Scarcity is less relevant. I recommend spending keys instead of hoarding keys if u have a lot. Chose the right items but spend.

[Chief D]

I agree with Vincent on the carders and market ideas. I believe keys got more "desirable" and, with carders having a harder job, it's rare to get them cheap.

 

Disclaimer: I never deal with $$ so it's just my opinion.

[Joshua Cain]

This is one of thier goto guys for alien episodes. Freak gets a good payday I imagine. Wtf

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Too lazy to read the above, so this might have already been said...But...

 

Key Ref price keeps increasing (75% increase).

Key Dollar Price has remained pretty stable (virtually 0% change)

Ref Dollar Price has decreased by only 12.5% (And it sells almost instantly if you sell it for $.33--17.5% decrease)

 

So, People just assumed Ref $ value would continue to drop, and therefore key $ price will remain relatively stable, so the old price is fine. But now, people are beginning to realize that thats not happening. Ref $ value has remained relatively stable. When keys had their big jump Ref dropped from .40-.38-.36 in a relatively short time, but ref has appeared to stabilize where it is now.

 

So people decided to raise key prices for 2 reasons. #1, a lot of people started selling ref due to the fact that a key's worth of ref was worth more than a key. (Further stabilizing the ref price), and allowing key buyers/sellers to raise prices. #2 People realized even if ref continues to drop theres no way it can possibly drop fast enough--at most it drops $0.01-$0.02, and Ref would need to drop at least $0.10 for Ref value to equal Key value...

[Chewi105]

 

I stopped by keys with ref long ago, so it doesnt affect me much. What is annoying is how my unusual's price jumps all the fuck around in my backpack, but that's prolly just me.

[The Spycrab Risotto]

How about ughhh... DEMAND IS RISING TOO MUCH!