New Rule Regarding Unusual Suggestions - "Two Sales Rule"

[polar]

ALL SUGGESTIONS ESTABLISHING PRICES ON NEW HATS/EFFECTS REQUIRE A MINIMUM OF 2 DEFINED SALES

• If the two sales are discrepant (can't tell what is the outlier), then a third sale is needed
• If the hat is an old/rare hat with one sale in many months (>3 months), then it is acceptable to set a flat price and it will be evaluated on a case-by-case basis (depending on how comparable the sale is to previous offers)
• This rule primarily targets the following types of hats / effects: robo hats / effects, summer hats / effects, 2013 halloween effects, any hat recently available in unusual quality.
• The two sales must be DEFINED sales (i.e. within the last three months and for hats with prices already established). Don't use unpriced hats as proof to price another hat.

Working on putting this into the website guidelines.

 

 

Rationale for the changes:

 

Due to this - http://backpack.tf/vote/id/520c1db3ba2536f774000002 - I pushed forward a discussion among mods about how we should price hats that are sold once. We have noticed that the first sale of a hat is very often not representative of subsequent sales of the hat. Both extremes are common - hats getting bought very low initially as well as hats getting sold very high due to the hype. Having a non-representative price on this website to guide people is worse than having no price at all. And it's impossible to tell what is representative based on an n=1. So we are enforcing a minimum of 2 sales for every hat to establish a range. 

 

A few examples:

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/520b01d3ba25368b60000017 - scorching data mining light for 3.1 buds

Phosphorus is 1 of 2 and priced at 4. Sunbeams is 1 of 1 at 5.2. Is scorching (1 of 1) really just 3.1?

 

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/5209c26bba2536417d000005 - price based on a single highly convulated trade with two other unusuals with new effects, one without a price. subsequent buyer is selling for 20. This one may be reasonable as a price, but its impossibly hard to say if that is representative or not based on an n=1

[smokedem]

Question.

 

I've got a hat (Flaming Lantern Killer's Kabuto), 1 of 2, on which no information can be found (except for one trade over a year ago). When I sell it, should I wait 1-2 months (I was thinking 2, Lantern sells slow but faster on soldier) and then if it hasn't been re-listed on the market, set a price defined on my sale? After that point in time it will have been three years since the hat was first available for unboxing and there will have been one confirmed, proveable sale in that time.

[polar]

Question.

 

I've got a hat (Flaming Lantern Killer's Kabuto), 1 of 2, on which no information can be found (except for one trade over a year ago). When I sell it, should I wait 1-2 months (I was thinking 2, Lantern sells slow but faster on soldier) and then if it hasn't been re-listed on the market, set a price defined on my sale? After that point in time it will have been three years since the hat was first available for unboxing and there will have been one confirmed, proveable sale in that time.

 

Great example of what I think falls under the "exception" category. This is a case where people (and mods) will probably disagree about the best way to handle it. It would be awesome if you could wait a few weeks to see if it sells again. But I don't think anyone would have a problem if you even priced it immediately after. 

 

This rule was designed primarily for new effects. Not so much for old effects that have already been around for months. For your hat, we would have months of you selling it as reference. For new effects, we have no idea what is appropriate. Lots of speculation about what tier each effect belongs to

[MC22]

It always seems that for every newly priced hat, there's a giant quicksale (50-60%) after.

hopefully this will change stuff.

[Offline]

Looks like I'm done with unusuals now

1 of 1 sale was easy ;( back to manipulating stranges

 

Anyways I think this will be a smarter change for unusuals, makes pricing more accurate overall

 

for example i found a miami nights escorter that sold for a gfetti coupe..

[A Delicious Cashew]

question: should I close the second suggestion or leave it open for another mod to look at it?

[polar]

Looks like I'm done with unusuals now

1 of 1 sale was easy ;( back to manipulating stranges

 

Anyways I think this will be a smarter change for unusuals, makes pricing more accurate overall

 

 

question: should I close the second suggestion or leave it open for another mod to look at it?

 

Thank you both for understanding. 

 

@Kaushu - sorry I didn't reply in time. we just made the firm decision and gave Mr. Bucket the fun job of just closing them all at once. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Thank you both for understanding. 

 

@Kaushu - sorry I didn't reply in time. we just made the firm decision and gave Mr. Bucket the fun job of just closing them all at once. 

Bastards....ruined my voting percentage :3

[Julia Gillard the Honest]

Thank you, thank you and thank you some more!!!!!!

[polar]

Bastards....ruined my voting percentage :3

 

Can't say I didn't warn you . I had been posting that on trades all day.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Can't say I didn't warn you . I had been posting that on trades all day.

You said you were talking to the other mods about it. I brought it up to Woifi like a week or two ago and he said he had already been talking to the other mods about it. So i didn't expect it to get accepted today. 

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

http://backpack.tf/vote/id/520c775c4bd7b8d90c000016

[ERASER BY]

I agree that is not possible to give a accurate price based on one sale hat .

 As well , it is very important , that for new hats and new effect large disparities in the prices. Look at these prices 3.2-5,6 1,2-3 6,5-8,7 - it is not normal when such a huge difference in the price range. This tells that one of the wrong price ranges (outlier). Best way to not to do such price suggestion or wait for the next sale.

[Christley </3 Peelz]

i so guess im the only one that doesnt agree with this

[∞Ramses]

So if only one sale happened for over 3 months, then it's okay to put a flat price on a hat with robo effect?

[polar]

So if only one sale happened for over 3 months, then it's okay to put a flat price on a hat with robo effect?

 

Hmmm. It's always hard to put a firm rule on anything. I would say that if there is only 1 sale in 3 months and if the buyer intends to keep it (he isn't making a sellers trade), it is fair to put a flat price. (have discussed this very scenario with other mods and michael even suggested that even 2-3 weeks is enough)

 

If he does have a sellers trade up for 3 months and isn't getting a single offer higher than what he paid for it, he probably overpaid, and we would need to evaluate this on a case-by-case basis.

[AwesomeMcCoolName]

Hmmm. It's always hard to put a firm rule on anything. I would say that if there is only 1 sale in 3 months and if the buyer intends to keep it (he isn't making a sellers trade), it is fair to put a flat price. (have discussed this very scenario with other mods and michael even suggested that even 2-3 weeks is enough)

 

If he does have a sellers trade up for 3 months and isn't getting a single offer higher than what he paid for it, he probably overpaid, and we would need to evaluate this on a case-by-case basis.

honestly, i don't think you can really put a price on it, as theres really no way of knowing if he overpaid (if he didn't put it back on the market). 

 

But if its been on the market for like a month, and still hasn't sold, and the offers are reasonably close to what he paid, then at that point, i don't see a problem with setting a price.

 

Also, http://backpack.tf/vote/id/520c6fddba25369122000011#520c757aba25368b22000014_row , this suggestion was closed because it was based on only one sale, but why? Its an old effect so its had a chance to find its market. Not saying that i agree with it, in-fact i'm quite sure it was wrong, and there were 2 sales available (what he paid, and what he sold it for), but why was it closed for only using one sale, and then linked here? It should've been closed for just being a generally bad suggestion.

[polar]

(1) honestly, i don't think you can really put a price on it, as theres really no way of knowing if he overpaid (if he didn't put it back on the market). 

 

But if its been on the market for like a month, and still hasn't sold, and the offers are reasonably close to what he paid, then at that point, i don't see a problem with setting a price.

 

(2) Also, http://backpack.tf/vote/id/520c6fddba25369122000011#520c757aba25368b22000014_row , this suggestion was closed because it was based on only one sale, but why? Its an old effect so its had a chance to find its market. Not saying that i agree with it, in-fact i'm quite sure it was wrong, and there were 2 sales available (what he paid, and what he sold it for), but why was it closed for only using one sale, and then linked here? It should've been closed for just being a generally bad suggestion.

 

Addressing your first point - that's a bit tricky and I don't see a right or wrong answer on it (and everyone will disagree on this one). Presumably another one will get unboxed at some point and the range could be adjusted. I think these cases will be rare enough that it shouldn't affect the overall integrity of what we are trying to accomplish.

 

And second point - main idea was that it needed a range cause there have been more than 1 sale. But you are correct that linking to this wasn't really what this rule was designed for.

[Julia Gillard the Honest]

Pointless post to help my post count: We should (unofficially) name this the Blind Polar Bear Rule since you seem to be the one who ends up dealing with all of these ones now.

[polar]

Pointless post to help my post count: We should (unofficially) name this the Blind Polar Bear Rule since you seem to be the one who ends up dealing with all of these ones now.

 

Haha. Only cause Woifi is away. This was what he had been wanting for a while. Although all the mods dislike pricing these new ones, so I will probably be dealing with a lot of these then too :/

[Woifi The Viking]

Pointless post to help my post count: We should (unofficially) name this the Blind Polar Bear Rule since you seem to be the one who ends up dealing with all of these ones now.

 

Haha. Only cause Woifi is away. This was what he had been wanting for a while. Although all the mods dislike pricing these new ones, so I will probably be dealing with a lot of these then too :/

!

 

I'm glad you pushed my thoughts through while I was away. That was maybe as time consuming than creating the idea in my head.^^

[F CHARLIE]

I wish I could alter one of mine because it effected the pricing of several others. All of them are high when seeing how they are reacted to in the market. An inaccurate high price is worse than the opposite because it takes much longer for high price to come down to market demand and will effect other hats pricing on the way.

[MC22]

I wish I could alter one of mine because it effected the pricing of several others. All of them are high when seeing how they are reacted to in the market. An inaccurate high price is worse than the opposite because it takes much longer for high price to come down to market demand and will effect other hats pricing on the way.

again, the difficulty of changing a price for any unusual is not hard. At least 2 solds and done.

[F CHARLIE]

again, the difficulty of changing a price for any unusual is not hard. At least 2 solds and done.

 

Untrue. So many transact without being able to be observed. A lot happens in trade servers or does not get noted ob a trade post. Should I post every hat I have transacted because I havn't. In fact several hats I have transacted should be dropped in price but I have not reported that. Part of it is that I can only confirm it by feel and I dont have a grasp of the whole market as an individual.

[kHEAVY]

First let me say these rules are a welcomed change and on paper should give users a more accurate feel for prices esp with all the newer hats / effects being released.

 

But for a collector like myself, (example: http://backpack.tf/vote/id/521df7a94f96f4e01d8b4568#521df7a94f96f4e01d8b4567_row) I will now be on the receiving end of 1 of 1 items, most likely traded once and never to be traded again - I guess this wouldn't fall under the exception category - and honestly I don't care if it never gets a price - but would just like clarification.

 

Thank you.